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Register a new userThe standard economic analysis of the variables affecting the agricultural investment and investment in Syria
التحليل القياسي للمتغيرات الاقتصادية المؤثرة على الاستثمار و الاستثمار الزراعي في سورية
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يركّز البحث في مطالبه على دراسة تطور الاستثمار الإجمالي، و الاستثمار الزراعي و معرفة طبيعة التغيرات الحاصلة خلال المدة (2000-2011)، و تقويم أداء الاقتصاد السوري، و قدرته على جذب الاستثمارات من عدمه، بالإضافة إلى تحليل العوامل المؤثرة على الاستثمار الإجمالي، و الاستثمار الزراعي في سورية، باستخدام المنهج الوصفي التحليلي، و التحليل الكمي القياسي. و كان من أهم النتائج التي توصّل إليها البحث: أنّ معدل النمو السنوي لصافي ميزان المدفوعات سالبًا بنحو - 18.35 % و الذي سيترتب عليه تدهور قيمته من عام لآخر، كما تبين من معاملات المرونة الكلية لدالة الاستثمار الاجمالي أنّ زيادة قيمة كل من الصادرات الكلية (X1)، و الاحتياطات الأجنبية (X3)، و العجز في الموازنة العامة للدولة (X8) بنسبة 1% يمكن أن تؤدي معًا إلى زيادة الاستثمار الإجمالي بنسبة 3.5%، في حين بينت معاملات المرونة الكلية لدالة الاستثمار الزراعي أنّ زيادة كل من قيمة الصادرات الاجمالية إلى الناتج القومي الإجمالي (X2)، و الاحتياطات الأجنبية (X3)، و صافي ميزان المدفوعات (X6) بنسبة 1% يمكن أن تؤدي معًا إلى زيادة الاستثمار الإجمالي بنسبة 22.3%، و تعدّ المتغيرات السابقة من أهم العوامل المحدّدة و الموجّهة للاستثمار الاجمالي، و الزراعي في سورية. و بناء عليه يتطلب من الاقتصاد السوري من أجل زيادة استثماراته تهيئة المناخ الاقتصادي، و السياسي للاستثمار، و التنمية الاقتصادية.
The research focuses on the demands on the study of the total investment evolution, agricultural, investment and knowledge of the nature of the changes taking place during the period (2000-2011), and evaluate the performance of the economy and its ability to attract investments from the lack of it, in addition to the analysis of the factors affecting the total investment, agriculture and investment in Syria. Using descriptive and analytical approach, and quantitative analysis of the record, and it was the most important findings: that the annual growth of the net balance of payments is negative rate and the rate of 18.35-%, which will result in the deterioration of its value from year to year, as demonstrated by the total flexibility to function total investment transactions that increase the value of both exports College (x1), and foreign reserves (X3), and the deficit in the state budget (X8) 1% can lead both to increase the total investment by 3.5%, in total flexibility transactions to function agricultural investment showed that the increase in the value of each of the total exports GNP (X2), and foreign reserves (X3), the net balance of payments (X6) 1% can lead both to increase the total investment by 22.3%, and is the former variables of the most important determinants-oriented investment product and agriculture in Syria. Accordingly it requires the Syrian economy in order to increase its investments create the economic climate, and political investment and economic development.
References used
garwal, j. p., Determinates of foreign direct investment, A. survey weltwirtschafls archive, 1980
سالم ، منال، العجز في الموازنة العامة وآثارها، الجمهورية اليمنية، جامعة عدن، كلية الاقتصاد، 2011
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This study aimed at identifying the best indicators representing economic factors
using Factor Analysis, as well as developing a mathematical model linking principal
components which represent both the economic factors and consumer spending in Syri
a
using Multi-linear regression analysis. A descriptive analytical approach is used in this
study.
The study results from Factor Analysis show that there are three principal
components which best represent the economic factors. The first component includes: the
number of workforce working for free, the number of paid workforce, consumer price
index, the average annual GDP per capita. The second component includes: interest rate,
self-employed workforce. The third component includes the number of employers.
A mathematical model is developed to link the above three components of the
economic factors and the total monthly household spending average in Syria during (
2000-2010).
Adopted the Syrian economy , which has seen an interference large part of the State , the public sector, which is employing a workforce in various sectors of the economy , and the issuance of the Legislative Decree No. / 7/ 2007 on the promotion of i
nvestment and had been preceded by Law No. / 10 / of 1991, evidence of awareness the need for change in the economic policies and a legal framework to attract foreign direct investment , because this kind of investments have the potential to diversify the economy and develop it at the lowest cost, create jobs , and bring in capital and expertise and assistance on the development of geographic regions varied. In case of setting conditions for the foreign direct investments serve the national economy.
The research found that there is a role for foreign direct investment on the process of economic development in the Syrian Arab
Republic on the basis of the results of the field survey.
Investment is a key component of growth, and a key supporter of the
development plans, In recent years, the evolution of the developmental role of the
General Organization for Social Insurance significantly, through development of the
nature of th
eir work, and orientation to take advantage of all opportunities to achieve
what is in the interest of all beneficiaries on the one hand, and support the development of
other plans.
This research aims to study the impact of investment surpluses in General
Organization for Social Insurance on economic development by analyzing the role of
investment and its effect in all investments in Syria, then we study the impact of
investments revenues on GDP .
The main finding of the research was the significantly role of investment the
surpluses in increasing the average of investments in Syria, and the significantly and
strongly relationship between the investment of the surpluses in General Organization for
Social Insurance and all investments in Syria, and there is significantly and strongly
relationship between the revenue of that investment and GDP, which means the positive
effect of that investments on economic development in Syria.
The research aims at investigating the reality of investment of the cultivation of
citrus in Syria during 2007-2011. The study showed that the citrus market in Syria needs to
be organized, and that there is a necessity for having an independent org
anization such as
(Citrus Growers Union) to be responsible, in cooperation with the relevant authorities, for
monitoring the production and marketing of citrus. The study also showed that the
specifications of full market competition apply to the citrus market in Syria, and that there
is a fluctuation in the value of flexibility of supply and demand which indicates the
presence of factors other than the price which affect the supply and demand. The study also
showed a marketing gap which was negative, this led to flooding the market with citrus
reaching (-247.4 thousand tons) in 2007. The investment in citrus achieved a positive
added-value which helped support the gross domestic product (GDP) in Syria, reaching (25
billion Syrian pounds) in 2011.The citrus sector also contributed in creating a balance of
payments; outflows of citrus reaching $140 million.
Industrial activity is one of the pillars of the economic development of any country. It
includes a long and varied series of productive processes that provide a high rate of
economic growth. The importance of foreign trade in development is eviden
ced by
securing the requirements of raw materials, capital goods and the source of currencies,
Therefore, the success of any real development experience requires an effective industrial
sector that has a positive impact on the foreign trade sector and this is reflected in the
transition of the national economy towards achieving important steps in the field of
economic development. The study aimed to find a standard model based on the ECM
model to predict the volume of industrial imports by studying the relationship between
industrial investment and industrial imports. It concluded that this model could be a
scientific basis for the development of economic and social development plans.
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