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Register a new userStuding the economic factors affecting consumer spending in Syria using factor Analysis
دراسة العوامل الاقتصادية المؤثرة على الإنفاق الاستهلاكي في سورية باستخدام التحليل العاملي
2022
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هدفت هذه الدراسة لإيجاد أفضل المؤشرات الممثلة للعوامل الاقتصادية باستخدام أسلوب التحليل العاملي، كما تهدف إلى إيجاد النموذج الرياضي الذي يربط بين المركبات الأساسية الممثلة للعوامل الاقتصادية و الإنفاق الاستهلاكي في سورية باستخدام تحليل الانحدار الخطي المتعدد. و كانت أهم النتائج: تم التوصل إلى ثلاثة مركبات أساسية باستخدام أسلوب التحليل العاملي تمثل العوامل الاقتصادية أفضل تمثيل و هي:المركب الأول الذي يضم (عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون بدون أجر، عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون بأجر، الرقم القياسي لأسعار المستهلك، متوسط نصيب الفرد السنوي من الدخل القومي)، و المركب الثاني الذي يضم (سعر الفائدة على الإقراض، عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون لحسابهم)، و المركب الثالث الذي يضم (عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين هم أصحاب عمل)، كما تم التوصل إلى نموذج رياضي يربط بين المركبات الثلاث للعوامل الاقتصادية و متوسط الإنفاق الشهري الكلي للأسرة في سورية خلال الفترة الممتدة بين (2000-2010).
This study aimed at identifying the best indicators representing economic factors using Factor Analysis, as well as developing a mathematical model linking principal components which represent both the economic factors and consumer spending in Syria using Multi-linear regression analysis. A descriptive analytical approach is used in this study. The study results from Factor Analysis show that there are three principal components which best represent the economic factors. The first component includes: the number of workforce working for free, the number of paid workforce, consumer price index, the average annual GDP per capita. The second component includes: interest rate, self-employed workforce. The third component includes the number of employers. A mathematical model is developed to link the above three components of the economic factors and the total monthly household spending average in Syria during ( 2000-2010).
References used
GEOFFRY; K et al ; The influence factor analysis of comprehensive energy consumption in manufacturing enterprises; Procedia Computer; 17; 2013; p754
PISON;G; et al; Robust Factor Analysis; journal of Multivariate Analysis; 84; 2003; p146
النعيمي، قاسم، التحليل الإحصائي متعدد الأبعاد في دراسة بعض مؤشرات السياسة الاقتصادية في الجمهورية اليمنية، مجلة جامعة دمشق، العدد الأول، المجلد 17 . دمشق، سورية، 2001 ، ص 202.
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This study aimed at classifying householders' spending into three
levels (high, moderate and low) and identifying which of the
considered economic factors have a significant impact on the
classification and which have not. In addition, this study aimed at
deciding whether the suggested classifying model is statistically
significant or not.
The objective of this research is applying Factor Analysis for Studying the most
important economic factors affecting the number of employees within period 2000 till
2009 in Syria, to propose a methodological framework for constructing the integrat
ed
factor analysis model system (FAMS) that can be used as a decision support tool in
employment year examination and supervision process for detection of years, which are
experiencing serious problems. Sample and variable set of the study contains 17 economic
variables.
Study years (10 years during the period 2000–2009) and their economic variables.
Well known multivariate statistical technique (principal component analysis), was used to
explore the basic economic characteristics of the theses years, and discriminant models
were estimated based on these characteristics to construct FAMS. The importance of factor
analysis model system in employment year examination was evaluated with respect to
defining the non-employment years for deciding the most important employment policy for
reducing unemployment rates in future.
Results of the study show that, if FAMS was effectively employed within studied
years, It is possible in this case to identify weaknesses, according to the years that have the
number of employees is less than the overall average calculated over the period.
This study aims to determine the difference of householder spending values between the Syrian provinces. It also aims to find out which of the components and the various items of expenditure, that contributed significantly to the occurrence of this d
ifference and disparity between provinces , where cluster analysis method was used to find out this difference and classification .
The most important results that have been reached: The result of cluster analysis is that there are three groups of Syrian provinces , the first group included the provinces of high householder spending such as Damascus province , the second group included the provinces of medium householder spending such as: Rural Damascus , Homs , Tartus , Lattakia , Al-Sweida , Daraa , Al – Quneitra .
The third group included the provinces of low householder spending such as: Hama , Idleb , Aleppo , Al-Rakka , Deir-ez-Zor , Al-Hasakeh .
Accordingly , that most important components and variables of householder spending, which contributed to the classification of the Syrian provinces of homogeneous groups are spending on housing , spending on education , spending on health , spending on transport and communications .
This study aimed at using Multi-Variables Analysis in classifying household
spending in Syria and identifying which of the social factors considered in the study
influence significantly this classification and which do not.
The most prominent resu
lts were: the possibility of classifying household spending
into three levels (high, medium and low), there is a statistical significance of the factors
(the percentage of urban population to total population, university education and above,
number of married people and those in marriage age ) on the household spending
classification. There is no statistical significance of the factors (educational levels below
university education, non-married people, divorced or being widowed) on the household
spending classification.
The research focuses on the demands on the study of the total investment evolution,
agricultural, investment and knowledge of the nature of the changes taking place during the
period (2000-2011), and evaluate the performance of the economy and its
ability to attract
investments from the lack of it, in addition to the analysis of the factors affecting the total
investment, agriculture and investment in Syria. Using descriptive and analytical approach,
and quantitative analysis of the record, and it was the most important findings: that the
annual growth of the net balance of payments is negative rate and the rate of 18.35-%,
which will result in the deterioration of its value from year to year, as demonstrated by the
total flexibility to function total investment transactions that increase the value of both
exports College (x1), and foreign reserves (X3), and the deficit in the state budget (X8) 1%
can lead both to increase the total investment by 3.5%, in total flexibility transactions to
function agricultural investment showed that the increase in the value of each of the total
exports GNP (X2), and foreign reserves (X3), the net balance of payments (X6) 1% can
lead both to increase the total investment by 22.3%, and is the former variables of the most
important determinants-oriented investment product and agriculture in Syria. Accordingly
it requires the Syrian economy in order to increase its investments create the economic
climate, and political investment and economic development.
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