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Register a new userThe impact of climatic elements (Rain, Dry Heat, Drought) on wheat and barley production)Irrigated and Rain-Fed) in the eastern region An Empirical Study in al-Hasakah station during the period 2001-2010
تأثير العناصر المناخية (الأمطار, الحرارة الجافة, الجفاف) على إنتاج القمح و الشعير (المروي و البعل) في المنطقة الشرقية دراسة تطبيقية في محطة الحسكة خلال الفترة 2001-2010
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Added by
Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2015
fields
Agrarian Economy
and research's language is
العربية
Created by
Shamra Editor
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هدف البحث إلى دراسة تأثير العناصر المناخية (الأمطار, الحرارة الجافة, الجفاف) على إنتاج القمح و الشعير (المروي و البعل) في محطة الحسكة بالمنطقة الشرقية, و لتحقيق أهداف البحث تمّ اعتماد سلسة زمنية تمتد من العام 2001 و لغاية العام 2010, و بالاعتماد على الأرقام القياسية, و معدلات النمو, و الانحدار المتعدد كان من أهم نتائج البحث: 1- هناك علاقة قوية جداً و دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج القمح المروي و كلاً من كميات الأمطار و الحرارة الجافة و مؤشر الجفاف, حيث كان مؤشر الجفاف الأكثر تأثيراً يليه كميات الأمطار يليه الحرارة الجافة. 2- لا توجد علاقة دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج القمح البعل, و كلاً من كميات الأمطار و الحرارة الجافة و مؤشر الجفاف. 3- هناك علاقة قوية و دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج الشعير المروي, و كلاً من كميات الأمطار و الحرارة الجافة و مؤشر الجفاف, حيث كان مؤشر الجفاف الأكثر تأثيراً يليه الحرارة الجافة يليه كميات الأمطار. 4- لا توجد علاقة دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج الشعير البعل, و كلاً من كميات الأمطار و الحرارة الجافة و مؤشر الجفاف.
The research aims to study the effects of the climatic elements, rain, dry heat and drought on wheat and barley production (irrigated and rain-fed) in al-Hasakah station in the Eastern Province, In order to achieve the objectives of the research a series of pen'ds of time extending from 2001 to 2010, was adopted Based on the indexes, rates growth and multiple regression the most important results were as the Following, relation: 1- There is a very strong and statistically significant between the irrigated wheat production and rainfall, dry heat and drought index, wch was the most influential, effed followed by precipitation drought index, and by dry heat. 2- There is no statistically significant relationship between rain-Fed wheat production and rainfall dry heat or drought index. 3- There is a strong and statistically significant relationship between the production of irrigated barley and rainfall, dry heat and drought index, The most influential effed was drought index, followed by dry heat, and precipitation. 4- There is no statistically significant relationship between the production of rain-Fed barley and rainfall and dry heat or drought index.
Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تهدف الدراسة إلى تحليل تأثير العناصر المناخية (الأمطار، الحرارة الجافة، الجفاف) على إنتاج القمح والشعير (المروي والبعل) في محطة الحسكة بالمنطقة الشرقية من سوريا خلال الفترة 2001-2010. استخدم الباحثون بيانات زمنية وإحصائية لتحديد العلاقة بين الإنتاج والعوامل المناخية. أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة قوية ودالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج القمح المروي والعناصر المناخية، حيث كان مؤشر الجفاف الأكثر تأثيراً، يليه كميات الأمطار ثم الحرارة الجافة. بينما لم تظهر علاقة دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج القمح البعل والعناصر المناخية. بالنسبة للشعير المروي، كانت العلاقة قوية ودالة إحصائياً أيضاً، مع تأثير أكبر لمؤشر الجفاف. أما الشعير البعل، فلم تظهر علاقة دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاجه والعناصر المناخية. توصي الدراسة بإدارة الموارد المائية بشكل فعال وتطوير أصناف زراعية مقاومة للجفاف لتحسين الإنتاجية الزراعية في المنطقة.
Critical review
تعتبر هذه الدراسة مهمة جداً لفهم تأثير التغيرات المناخية على الإنتاج الزراعي في منطقة حساسة مثل الحسكة. ومع ذلك، يمكن الإشارة إلى بعض النقاط التي قد تحتاج إلى مزيد من التوضيح أو التحسين. أولاً، قد يكون من المفيد توسيع نطاق الدراسة لتشمل فترات زمنية أطول أو مناطق أخرى لمقارنة النتائج. ثانياً، يمكن تعزيز الدراسة بإضافة تحليل اقتصادي لتقدير تأثير التغيرات المناخية على الاقتصاد المحلي. وأخيراً، يمكن تحسين الدراسة من خلال استخدام تقنيات تحليلية أكثر تقدماً مثل النماذج الديناميكية التي تأخذ في الاعتبار التغيرات المناخية المستقبلية.
Questions related to the research
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ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي تغطيها الدراسة؟
تغطي الدراسة الفترة الزمنية من عام 2001 إلى عام 2010.
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ما هي العناصر المناخية التي تم تحليلها في الدراسة؟
تم تحليل تأثير الأمطار، الحرارة الجافة، والجفاف على إنتاج القمح والشعير.
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ما هو العنصر المناخي الأكثر تأثيراً على إنتاج القمح المروي؟
كان مؤشر الجفاف هو العنصر المناخي الأكثر تأثيراً على إنتاج القمح المروي.
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هل توجد علاقة دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج الشعير البعل والعناصر المناخية؟
لا، لم تظهر علاقة دالة إحصائياً بين إنتاج الشعير البعل والعناصر المناخية.
References used
Lobell, D. and Burke, M. 2010. Climate change and Food security Adapting Agriculture to a Warmer World. Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York
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