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Register a new userEmployment State Space model to predict the Wheat production in Syria
استخدام نموذج فضاء الحالة State Space في التنبؤ بإنتاج القمح في سورية
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هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى وضع نموذج قياسي للتنبؤ بحجم إنتاج القمح في سورية مبني على أساس نموذج فضاء الحالة State Space . و خلصت الدراسة إلى وضع نموذج قياسي مبني على نموذج فضاء الحالة و التنبؤ بحجم الإنتاج من القمح في الجمهورية العربية السورية حتى عام 2016 . كما تبين من مقارنة نموذج فضاء الحالة State Space Model) SSM) بالنماذج المستخدمة في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية أفضلية نموذج فضاء الحالة عليها لنمذجة إنتاج القمح في سورية.
This study aims at develop the model to predict the production of wheat in Syria which is based on the model State Space. The study to develop a model and predict the production of wheat in the Syrian Arab Republic until 2016. As it turns out to compare the model State Space with the models used in the analysis of time series priority model State Space for modeling wheat production in Syria. ...
References used
Alpay D. and Gohberg I. (2006), "The State Space Method Generalizations and Applications", Birkhäuser Verlag, Berlin
Bain A. and Crisan D. (2009), " Fundamentals of Stochastic Filtering" , Springer Science+Business Media, New York
بري، عدنان ماجد عبد الرحمن، طرق التنبؤ الإحصائي ( الجزء الأول).جامعة الملك سعود, 2002 م
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The objective of the research is to predict the production and
area of tobacco production in the Syrian Arab Republic for the period
(2019-2027) using ARIMA analysis, based on time series data on
production and cultivated area for the period 1975-
2017.The research
was based primarily on the secondary data of FAO, based on the
descriptive method of analysis in both descriptive and quantitative
terms, using the linear analysis of the time series regression function
in its various mathematical images, as well as using Box-Jenkins
method to predict future values of production The maximal
Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average (ARIMA) models.Results showed that the best predictive
models of production and cultivated area during the required period
were ARIMA (2.2,2)According to the selected model, the production
volume in 2019 will reach 9130.9 tons between a minimum of 3056.9
tons and a maximum of 15205.0 tons, and it will continue to decline
until 2025 to reach 920.0 tons and increase again in 2026 to 6766.4
tons between a minimum of 6579.3 tons and a maximum of 7932.0
tons, and then returns to decline again in the year (2027) to 2281.4
tons.The cultivated area will reach 2,736.9 hectares in the year 2019
to a minimum of 3010.4 ha and a maximum of 11,236.5 ha. It will
continue to decline until 2088 to reach 3588.5 hectares. This will
increase again in 2026 to 4966.7 hectares between a minimum of
4553.5 ha and maximum of 10487.0 hectares and it is expected to
decline in 2027 to reach 3830.5 hectares between a minimum of
3623.6 and maximum of 10284.5 hectares.
There are many ideas that come to the mind and many questions that keep coming
to the mind when it comes to analyzing the phenomenon of using the methods and tools to
help in the planning and making appropriate decisions.
In this research we tried
to display the importance of statistics and the most important
methods depending on the number of variables used in this analysis: descriptive
statistical indicators in case we had one variable, indexes in case we had two variables,
and factor analysis and analysis of variance in case we had several variables. These methods
were applied to production of irrigated wheat crop, both types soft and hard, during
the period 2000 - 2010 and the factors affecting its production, such as: the cultivated area,
yield, fertilizers, water, the average cost and the average price. Then the data were analyzed
using the Statistical package SPSS and program Excel. After that, they summarized
in two main factors that justify together (86.116%) of the overall variance. The first factor
was related to the land and everything related to it through a set of variables, which are:
the cultivated area and the need to fertilizers and water., The second factor was the importance
of the selling price of the crop per kilogram.
The research aimed to identify the current status of wheat in Syria during the period
(2000- 2012), and to study the energy of production and consumption, gap size,
besides self-sufficiency ratio of wheat, as well as to highlight on the average per
capita of the available for consumption, the annual average income per capita, and
the annual population increase. The research also indicated the most important
factors affecting the production and domestic consumption of wheat. The results had
showed that the general trend of total production, cultivated area and productivity
is a descending direction during the studied period. Also, the consumed amount of
wheat during the studied period increased, with an average of (4084.42) thousand
tons annually, while the average of domestic production amounted to about (4008.38)
thousand tons for the same period. Besides the food gap of wheat ranged between
a minimum value at (17.3) thousand tons in 2000, and a maximum value about
1660 thousand tons in 2009, the year in which consumption reached its maximum
value in the time of studied series. The self-sufficiency ranged from (69.04%) in
2009 and (131.03)% in 2007 with an average of about (99.1)% during the period
(2000 - 2012).
Wheat is the most cultivated strategic crop in Syria , it occupied first
rank of cultivated area , and second rank of production value , in addition
to that bread is the main nutrition in Syria .
The aim of present study is to recognize to sectori
al structure of
wheat production in Syria through studying the spatial concentration,
specialization, economic efficiency, and recognizing the dynamic
production of wheat during the study period to give a real picture about
this strategic crop .
The practical significance of this study is to give a real picture about
trends of wheat production, areas, yield, and to determine the level of
spatial concentration, specialization, and economic efficiency in every
governorate in Syria during studying period to show the impact of spatial
diversities on wheat production in Syria .
The study was conducted in the eastern region of Syria to know the extent of
cultivation development of wheat and cotton production and the factors
affecting these crops during 1996-2010. The results showed that the effect of
time on the productio
n and productivity of wheat was not changed statistically,
while the cotton area was decreased significantly during the study period. The
total production of wheat was also affected significantly and positively by
cultivated area and planting costs per hectare, and negatively by purchase
price, while the production of cotton was affected significantly and positively by
costs and purchase prices. According to the geographical region, the results
showed that the production in the eastern region was significantly affected by
Al-Raqqa production for wheat and cotton crops and Al-Hassake production
for wheat crop. However, wheat productivity at Deir Ezzor was significantly
superior compared to Al-Raqqa and Al-Hassake. The study recommended
expanding the cultivation of wheat and cotton and support and expand the role
of agricultural extension.
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