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Register a new userPrediction of tobacco crop production in Syria using )ARIMA( model analysis
التنبؤ بإنتاج محصول التبغ في سورية باستخدام تحليل نماذج (ARIMA)
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مجد نعامة( باحث )
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هدف البحث إلى التنبؤ بمساحة وإنتاج محصول التبغ على مستوى الجمهورية العربية السورية للفترة ما بين (2019-2027) باستخدام تحليل نماذجARIMA ، بالاعتماد على بيانات السلاسل الزمنية الخاصة بالمساحة المزروعة والإنتاج للفترة ما بين (1975-2017)؛ تم الاعتماد في البحث بصفة أساسية علي البيانات الثانوية لمنظمة الأغذية والزراعة العالمية (FAO) ، وعلى الطريقة الإستقرائية في التحليل من الناحيتين الوصفية والكمية، باستخدام التحليل الخطي لدوال انحدار السلاسل الزمنية في صورها الرياضية المختلفة، وكذلك استخدام أسلوب بوكس جينكنز Box-Jenkins للتنبؤ بالقيم المستقبلية للإنتاج الزراعي باستخدام طريقة تقدير الإمكانية العظمى ((MLE Maximum Likelihood Estimated لنماذج تكامل الانحدار الذاتي- للوسط المتحرك Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)؛ بينت النتائج أن أفضل النماذج التنبؤية بالمساحة المزروعة والإنتاج خلال الفترة المدروسة هي ARIMA (2،2،2).ووفقا للنموذج المختار فإن المساحة المزروعة ستصل عام(2019) إلى 7136.9 هكتار ما بين حد أدنى 3010.4 هكتار وحد أعلى 11236.5 هكتار، كما أنها ستستمر بالانخفاض حتى عام (2025) لتصل إلى 3588.5 هكتار، لتعود للارتفاع مرة أخرى عام (2026) لتصل إلى 4966.7 هكتار ما بين حد أدنى 4553.5 هكتار وأعلى 10487.0 هكتار ومن المتوقع أن تنخفض عام (2027) لتصل إلى 3830.5 هكتار ما بين حد أدنى 3623.6 وأعلى 10284.5 هكتار. أما حجم الإنتاج سيبلغ عام (2019 ) 9130.9 طن ما بين حد أدنى 3056.9 طن وحد أعلى 15205.0 طن، كما انه سيستمر بالانخفاض حتى عام (2025) ليصل إلى 920.0 طن ليعود للارتفاع مرة أخرى عام ( 2026) ليصل إلى 6766.4طن ما بين حد أدنى 6579.3 طن وأعلى 7932.0 طن، ومن ثم يعود للانخفاض مرة أخرى عام( 2027) ليصل إلى 2281.4 طن.
The objective of the research is to predict the production and area of tobacco production in the Syrian Arab Republic for the period (2019-2027) using ARIMA analysis, based on time series data on production and cultivated area for the period 1975-2017.The research was based primarily on the secondary data of FAO, based on the descriptive method of analysis in both descriptive and quantitative terms, using the linear analysis of the time series regression function in its various mathematical images, as well as using Box-Jenkins method to predict future values of production The maximal Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.Results showed that the best predictive models of production and cultivated area during the required period were ARIMA (2.2,2)According to the selected model, the production volume in 2019 will reach 9130.9 tons between a minimum of 3056.9 tons and a maximum of 15205.0 tons, and it will continue to decline until 2025 to reach 920.0 tons and increase again in 2026 to 6766.4 tons between a minimum of 6579.3 tons and a maximum of 7932.0 tons, and then returns to decline again in the year (2027) to 2281.4 tons.The cultivated area will reach 2,736.9 hectares in the year 2019 to a minimum of 3010.4 ha and a maximum of 11,236.5 ha. It will continue to decline until 2088 to reach 3588.5 hectares. This will increase again in 2026 to 4966.7 hectares between a minimum of 4553.5 ha and maximum of 10487.0 hectares and it is expected to decline in 2027 to reach 3830.5 hectares between a minimum of 3623.6 and maximum of 10284.5 hectares.
References used
Arsham,H.(1996)."Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Techniques" http: // obeli.jde.aca.mmu.ac.uk
Box,G.P.and G.M Jenkins,.(1976)."Time series and forecasting and control", Re vised Edition Holden-Day lnc. San Francisco
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