The Genral Trend of Stock Prices of Banks Listed in Damascus Securities Exchange & Building a Model to Predict Them

This research aims to identify the Genral Trend of prices movements of stocks of IBTF bank listed in Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE) during the period starting from the beginning of Damascus Stock Exchange in March 2009 until the end of February 2011, in order to construct a model helping to predict the future prices of the stock in the short term. Using regression models for time series and ARIMA models, the reseach found that there is an incresing trend in stock prices during this period, and has also concluded that the best model to predict future stock prices is the regression model of the third degree and ARIMA (2,0,1), based on several indicators to test the quality of the model in question without taking into account the emergency and seasonal changes

منهجية Box-Jenkins في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية و التنبؤ دراسة تطبيقية على أعداد تلاميذ الصف الأول من التعليم الأساسي في سورية

تولى الجمهورية العربية السورية الاهتمام و الرعاية اللازمة لمنظومة التعليم في الدولة، إذ يكفل القانون حق التعليم لكل مواطن، و هو إلزامي و مجاني في مرحلة التعليم الأساسي. هذا فضلاً عن أن معدل النمو السكاني المرتفع، و عوامل أخرى مختلفة تؤدي إلى ارتفاع أعداد التلاميذ المنتسبين إلى الصف الأول من التعليم الأساسي و بشكل متسارع جداً. لابد لمواجهة هذا الواقع من وضع خطط سنوية من قبل المعنيين لمواجهة الالتزامات المتوقعة لكل عام جديد: المدارس، الشعب، المعلمين، المقررات..... هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى وضع نماذج قياسية للتنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ المتوقع توافدهم إلى الصف الأول و توفيق أفضل نموذج من نماذج ،Box-Jenkins تعليم أساسي باستخدام منهجية(بوكس جنكينز) ARIMA و ARMA. خلصت الدراسة إلى وضع نموذج يمكن استخدامه في التنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ، و تم التنبؤ بأعدادهم حتى عام 2015، و هذا ما يشكل قاعدة علمية لوضع خطط التعليم و الخطط المرتبطة بها.

Proposed method to analysis and predict time series with a regular cyclical factor (Olive production in Syria)

Olive cultivation is witnessing a remarkable development in the Syrian Arab Republic in terms of area cultivated and the number of trees and the quality of cultivated varieties of olives. The result of this evolution Syria occupied first place in the Arab and olive production ranked fifth in the world after Spain, Italy, Greece and Turkey, by passing Tunisia, which occupies the first place was an Arab. Olive production as dependent variable is affected by much of the factors which can be considered independent: The number of trees and age of tree and tree type and amount of rainfall, temperature and location of olive cultivation…… However, the most important influence on the production of olive is a phenomenon alternate fruit bearing in fruit trees.This lead to the affected by a time series of olive production, in addition to the regular periodic of other factors, the general trend and random factors. This study aims to provide a new method for modeling and analysis of time series with a regular cyclical factors and its application to olive production in the Syrian Arab Republic. The study to develop an econometric model based on the proposed new method can be used to predict the production of olive in Syria, and predict the size of production until 2016. ...

Employment State Space model to predict the Wheat production in Syria

This study aims at develop the model to predict the production of wheat in Syria which is based on the model State Space. The study to develop a model and predict the production of wheat in the Syrian Arab Republic until 2016. As it turns out to compare the model State Space with the models used in the analysis of time series priority model State Space for modeling wheat production in Syria. ...

Rainfall Prediction in Tartous Station Located in the Southern Part of the Syrian Coast

Rainfall is considered as one of the most difficult and complex elements of the hydrological cycle, to understand and model, due to the complexity of air operations that generate rain. The importance of research comes from the direct relationship between the rainfall amount and economic & social activities of the population, planning scopes of the water resources management, particularly with respect to the agricultural development. The research aims to highlight the rainfall amounts in Tartous station which is located in the southern part of the Syrian coast, and applying one model of Box-Jenkins models for the purpose of predicting future rainfall amounts. Multiple Arima models have been tested. The results showed that the model SARIMA (3,0,4) was the best one. Data were divided into 43 years to build the model and eight years to test it. The test results gave high accuracy in the performance, and the model was used to predict the values of annual rainfall for the next twenty years.

Compare between two interpolation methods (Kriging, IDW) for predicting spatial distribution of nitrate NO3 - in groundwater of Estern Ghouta- Damascus

Groundwater is one of the major sources of exploitation in arid and semi-arid regions, Thus for protecting groundwater quality, data on spatial and temporal distribution are important. Geostatistics methods are one of the most advanced techniques for interpolation of groundwater quality. In this research, IDW, Kriging methods were used for predicting spatial distribution of nitrate NO3 -. Data were taken from 21 wells study within eastern Damascus's Ghouta. After normalization of data, variograme was drawn. The less RSS was used, so Spherical model was the best. By using cross-validation and RMSE, the best method for interpolation was selected; Results showed that Kriging method is superior to IDW method. there is a big spatial dependence for nitrate variable that amounts to 2.2 %. Finally, maps of distribution of nitrate in groundwater were executed by Kriging method, in addition to executed maps that show goodness of groundwater for drinking and irrigation. Then it was prepared map of Probability Map of nitrate at threshold 50 mg/l.

فعالية استخدام توزيع وايبل الاحتمالي في التنبؤ

حاولنا في هذا البحث تطبيق أحد التوزيعات الاحتمالية المستمرة، و لاسيما توزيع وايبل الاحتمالي الذي يستخدم في دراسة الموثوقية و الرقابة على الجودة و في التنبؤ، و قد قمنا بتطبيقه على بيانات فعلية لدرجات الحرارة العظمى و الأمطار لمدينة دمشق خلال المدة ( 1988-2007 ) ، و توصلنا إلى الآتي: كيفية تحويل توزيع وايبل الاحتمالي إلى الانحدار الخطي و كيفية تقدير معلمته إمكانية استخدام توزيع وايبل الاحتمالي المعمم في إيجاد الاحتمال المتوقع لدرجات الحرارة العظمى محاولة تطوير أساليب التقدير و تقانات التحليل الإحصائي.

Prediction of preterm birth by estimating ultrasonographic cervical changes

The study is carried on 65 pregnant patients attending the outpatient clinics and inpatient department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of Al Assad University Hospital from February- 2013 until February- 2014. They were divided to three groups. The first is preterm labor with intact membranes (25 patients). The second is PROM (20 patients). The third one is control group (20 patients). All of them were submitted to ultrasonography to find cervical changes (cervical canal length and diameter of internal os in order to predict preterm delivery. Cervical canal length has a sensitivity of 91.43%, a specificity of 100%, a positive predictive value of 100%, a negative predictive value of 76.92%, and a relative risk (95% CI) of 4.33 (1.61-11.69) among patients with short cervical canal length and those with normal cervix. Diameter of internal os as a predictor of preterm delivery has a sensitivity of 60%, a specificity of 60%, a positive predictive value of 84%, a negative predictive value of 30%, and a relative risk (95% CI) of 1.2 (0.86–1.68).

دور الثقافة التنظيمية في التنبؤ بقوة الهوية التنظيمية: (دراسة ميدانية على أعضاء هيئة التدريس في الجامعات الأردنية الخاصة)

هدفت الدراسة إلى تحديد دور الثقافة التنظيمية في التنبؤ بقوة الهوية التنظيمية. و لتحقيق هذا الهدف اختيرت عينة من أربع جامعات أردنية خاصة بصفة عشوائية، و وزعت 280 استبانة على أعضاء هيئة التدريس فيها حيث استرجع منها 226 استبانة أُخضِعت للتحليل التمييزي. و قد استطاعت الدراسة بناء نموذج يتكون من الأبعاد الداخلة في التحليل كلها (التعاون، و الابتكار، و الالتزام، و الفاعلية) و قد تمكن النموذج من تصنيف المبحوثين إلى مجموعتين: من لديهم شعور ضعيف بالهوية التنظيمية، و من لديهم شعور قوي بها بدقة وصلت إلى 83.2%.

Components of Temperature Time Series at Tartous meteostation

The four components of temperature (max., min.) phenomena, seasonal(S), Trend(T), cyclical(C), and random (I) for Tartous city have been studied. Four different methods (Average percentages method, Percentage of the general trend method, The ratio of the moving average method, Link Relative method) are used to deduct the (S) components and seasonal index for each method is determined. The statistical inferences pointed that the Average percentages method can be used in the prediction of temperature. for the year 2003 depending on a historical record (1957- 2002). The result of this deduction showed that the temperature is a cyclical phenomena. The known statistical test like mean, Standard deviation and cumulative probability have been done which showed a good correlation between the predicted and historical data.