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Register a new userمنهجية Box-Jenkins في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية و التنبؤ دراسة تطبيقية على أعداد تلاميذ الصف الأول من التعليم الأساسي في سورية
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تولى الجمهورية العربية السورية الاهتمام و الرعاية اللازمة لمنظومة التعليم في الدولة، إذ يكفل القانون حق التعليم لكل مواطن، و هو إلزامي و مجاني في مرحلة التعليم الأساسي. هذا فضلاً عن أن معدل النمو السكاني المرتفع، و عوامل أخرى مختلفة تؤدي إلى ارتفاع أعداد التلاميذ المنتسبين إلى الصف الأول من التعليم الأساسي و بشكل متسارع جداً. لابد لمواجهة هذا الواقع من وضع خطط سنوية من قبل المعنيين لمواجهة الالتزامات المتوقعة لكل عام جديد: المدارس، الشعب، المعلمين، المقررات..... هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى وضع نماذج قياسية للتنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ المتوقع توافدهم إلى الصف الأول و توفيق أفضل نموذج من نماذج ،Box-Jenkins تعليم أساسي باستخدام منهجية(بوكس جنكينز) ARIMA و ARMA. خلصت الدراسة إلى وضع نموذج يمكن استخدامه في التنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ، و تم التنبؤ بأعدادهم حتى عام 2015، و هذا ما يشكل قاعدة علمية لوضع خطط التعليم و الخطط المرتبطة بها.
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References used
BERA, A.K. and Jarque .C.M.(1981), "An efficient large Sample test for normality of observations and regression residuals ", Working paper in Econometrics No 40,Australion National university, Canberra
Box, G. E. P. and Jenkins, G. M. (1976). Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, 2nd ed., Holden-Day, San Francisco
Dickey D. and Fuller W.(1979), " Distribution of the estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a unit Root ", Journal of the American Statistical Association, n74: pp .427-431
Dickey D. and Fuller W.(1981) 'The likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a unit Root", Econometrica ,n49: pp .1057-1072
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حظيت نمذجة وتوقع السلاسل الزمنية بأهمية كبيرة في العديد من المجالات التطبيقية كالتنبؤ بالطقس وأسعار العملات ومعدلات استهلاك الوقود والكهرباء، إن توقع السلاسل الزمنية من شأنه أن يزود المنظمات والشركات بالمعلومات الضرورية لاتخاذ القرارات الهامة، وبسبب
أهمية هذا المجال من الناحية التطبيقية فإن الكثير من الأعمال البحثية التي جرت ضمنه خلال السنوات الماضية، إضافةً إلى العدد الكبير من النماذج والخوارزميات التي تم اقتراحها في أدب البحث العلمي والتي كان هدفها تحسين كل من الدقة والكفاءة في نمذجة وتوقع السلاسل الزمنية.
This study aimed at arranging the items of cognitive abilities test (primary battery)
by using Rash s one parameter model , In addition ,different forms for interpreting the
individuals level of ability were carried out. The test was conducted on a
sample of (1081)
students from Lattakia schools and kindergarten . using "SPSS" program and Winsteps for
statistical treatment in accordance with Rasch Model. The results showed the necessity of
omitting (38) items of cognitive abilities test because they were not fitting the model. The
remain items that were left were (172). And proved the validity and the reliability of the
test. Moreover, the present study form criteria for percentiles rank, T scores, and
standardized intelligent quiescent that equal for the different individual ability.
The study and design of water dams depend essential on prediction of water volumes
or future predicted in rivers, by using the time series analysis of the historical
measurements.
The research aims to make statistical study of monthly water volume
s incoming in
AL-Aroos River in Syrian coastal and future prediction of these volumes. And the
Box-Jenkins models is adopt to analysis the time series data, because of its high accuracy.
We attend the monthly water volumes for 15 years. And after doing the wanted tests on
model residuals we found that the best model to represent the data is SARIMA(0,1,2)
(1,2,1)12 , and after dividing the data to 14 years to build the model and one year to test it ,
and depending on the smallest of weighted mean of criteria RMSE, MAP, MAE,. The best
predicted model is SARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,1)12 and the model give the nearest predicted of
measured data actually.
The general index of the financial market of the important
economic indicators in any country is being reflects the
economic situation and economic activity in the country, so
attention must be appropriate methods for predicting the
performance o
f this indicator in the future and look at the
factors that affect in it .
This study aimed to the conclusion based, follow Box-Jenkins
methodology for building predictive models ARMA (p, q) and
check models" residuals, and predict the performance of the
general index of Damascus Securities Exchange DWX, as
well as the volume of trading in this market, and studying the
impact of the relationship between them .
The current research aims light to find out the differences in the willingness to
learn among a sample of first-grade students in of the variables of enrollment
in kindergartens and sex, The research sample was selected from the firstgrade
student
s in the schools of the city of Damascus, where the official was
withdrawn (3%) of the original community has reached the size of the sample
(912) of them (394) males and 510 females, It was the use of battery standby
for learning prepared by the benefit of the BRIC, and research found to have a
statistically significant differences in the willingness to learn from the research
sample depending on the variable enroll in kindergarten for the benefit of
attending kindergarten, also show a statistically significant differences in the
willingness to learn from the research sample due to the variable sex
individuals in favor of females.
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