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Register a new userRainfall Prediction in Tartous Station Located in the Southern Part of the Syrian Coast
التنبؤ بالهطل المطري في محطة طرطوس الواقعة في القسم الجنوبي من الساحل السوري
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يعدّ الهطل المطري أحد أكثر عناصر الدورة الهيدرولوجية صعوبة و تعقيداً من حيث الفهم و النمذجة، بسبب تعقيد العمليات الجوية التي تولد الأمطار. تأتي أهمية البحث من العلاقة المباشرة لكميات الأمطار الهاطلة بالأنشطة الاقتصادية و الاجتماعية للسكان، و مجالات التخطيط لإدارة الموارد المائية، لا سيما ما يتعلق منها بعملية التنمية الزراعية. يهدف البحث إلى إلقاء الضوء على كميات الأمطار الهاطلة في محطة طرطوس الواقعة في الجزء الجنوبي من الساحل السوري، و تطبيق نموذج من نماذج بوكس- جنكنز للتنبؤ بكمياتها المستقبلية. تم اختبار نماذج متعددة لـ ARIMA، و أخضعت النماذج لجميع الاختبارات المطلوبة، و قد تبين أن أفضلها كان النموذج ذي المعالم (ARIMA(3,0,4. جرى أثناء الاختبار تقسيم البيانات إلى 43 سنة لبناء النموذج، و ثماني سنوات لاختباره، و قد أعطت نتائج الاختبار دقةً عاليةً في الأداء، كما استخدم النموذج للتنبؤ بقيم الأمطار السنوية لعشرين سنة قادمة.
Rainfall is considered as one of the most difficult and complex elements of the hydrological cycle, to understand and model, due to the complexity of air operations that generate rain. The importance of research comes from the direct relationship between the rainfall amount and economic & social activities of the population, planning scopes of the water resources management, particularly with respect to the agricultural development. The research aims to highlight the rainfall amounts in Tartous station which is located in the southern part of the Syrian coast, and applying one model of Box-Jenkins models for the purpose of predicting future rainfall amounts. Multiple Arima models have been tested. The results showed that the model SARIMA (3,0,4) was the best one. Data were divided into 43 years to build the model and eight years to test it. The test results gave high accuracy in the performance, and the model was used to predict the values of annual rainfall for the next twenty years.
References used
FRENCH, M. N., KRAJEWSKI, W. F., AND CUYKENDALL, R. R., 1992, "Rainfall forecasting in space and time using neural network", J. Hydrol., 137, 1–31
GWANGSEOB, K. AND ANA, P. B., 2001, "Quantitative flood forecasting using multi sensor data and neural networks", Journal of Hydrology, 246, 45–62
BOX, G.E.P., G.M., JENKINS, 1976, "Series Analysis Forecasting and Control", Prentice-Hall Inc., London
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Due to the importance of water, and the increasing of demand at the present time due
to the tremendous development in all spheres of economic and social life, and as the
evaluation, planning and management of water sources, one of the important top
ics in
human life, especially in areas with scarce rainfall or where rainfall distribution is poor or
irregular so cannot be used for different purposes.
From here, the importance of the research in forecasting rainfall in the Husn
Suleiman station, comes, and to achieve this goal the data of time series for the average
annual rainfall precipitation been used in Husn Suleiman station which located in the
province of Tartous on longitude 36 ° 15 ' andlatitude 34 ° 56', for the period between
1959-2011,
The methodology of "Box – Jenkins" been used in the study, this methodology
relies on finding future forecasts from original data series.
Also,the applications “MINITAB, EXCEL” have been used in the statistical side and
the preparation of the study results.
As a result, the study found that rainfall value in the 'Husn Suleiman station'
decreasing, this decline amounted to 3.7 mm per year during the monitoring period.
Also, the appropriate (ARIMA) model for the series was build after it passed the
various statistical tests are required, and founded that ARIMA(1,0,0) model is a good
representation of the data and the ARIMA(4,1,5) model is the right model to forecast
future rainfall.
The velocity and direction of the wind greatly affect marine navigation and the
movement of merchant ships in harbors, It also affects the rapid movement of pollutants
into the air from industrial cities to agricultural and residential areas.
The
importance of the research comes from forecasting monthly wind velocity in the
Tartous station and to achieve this goal the data of time series for the monthly wind
velocity at Tartous station in Tartous governorate The methodology of "Box – Jenkins"
been used in the study, this methodology relies on finding future forecasts from original
data series.
Also, the applications “MINITAB, EXCEL” have been used to obtain the results of the
study.
As a result, the study found that wind velocity value in the ' Tartous station' decreasing,
this decline amounted to 0.002 km/h per month during the monitoring period.
Also, the appropriate (SARIMA) model for the series was build after it passed the
various statistical tests are required, and founded that SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12 model is a
good representation of the data and the SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 model is the right model
to forecast future monthly wind.
The research area is located in the Syrian coast between the Sin and Rous river. This
research aims at studying the hydrogeological characteristics of the unconfined aquifer in
the research area and evaluating the conditions of its placed. The rese
arch was based on a
monitoring network consisting of 36 wells that penetrate the unconfined aquifer, and
measurements continued during the period (October 2016 until September 2017).
The unconfined groundwater depths in the research area range between 0.5-11.5 m, and
sometimes during the drought period reach to 13.5 m, while it is close to the surface in the
winter and up to 0.1m in some wells. The electrical conductivity ranges between
550-3700 μs/cm, increasing as we go west and reaching 9,000 μs/cm and more in the wells
near the sea during the dry period. Groundwater levels Lower in the dry period to below
sea level in near-shore wells, achieves the hydrodynamic conditions of the seawater
intrusion.
This research aims at evaluating service quality at tartous call
center in Syrian Coast. This is achieved by concentrating on the
service performance ( SERVPERF) to measure the recognized
service quality. The data for this research were collected using a
questionnaire . 200 had been distributed. 179 were returned, which
amounts for 89.5% of the distributed questionnaires.
Detailed sedimentary study of the Southern section of the Syrian Continental shelf (N 35.16022 E 35.92712: N 34.71354 E 35.94267) has been carried out in order to determine the sediment nature and distribution. The study of coastal sandy samples (fro
m beach to 2m water depth) revealed variation in the sand colours from place to place. This indicates that there are many sources for coastal sand mostly derived from the hinterlands. Six sediment sorting types were identified along the continental shelf and these are: Sand; Sandy Mud; Slightly Gravelly Sand; Slightly Gravelly Muddy Sand; Slightly Gravelly Sandy Mud; and Gravel. The textural studies clearly establish that the sediments are of medium grain size, moderately well sorted, very negatively skewed and mesokurtic. These parameters confirm that the sediments were deposited under moderate to high energy conditions. These conditions vary from place to another according to the place of deposition and the nature of the source material on one hand and the severity of the kinetic energy namely ocean currents, marine eddies, waves and tides on the other hand.
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