تولى الجمهورية العربية السورية الاهتمام و الرعاية اللازمة لمنظومة التعليم في الدولة، إذ يكفل القانون حق التعليم لكل مواطن، و هو إلزامي و مجاني في مرحلة التعليم الأساسي. هذا فضلاً عن أن معدل النمو السكاني المرتفع، و عوامل أخرى مختلفة تؤدي إلى ارتفاع أ
عداد التلاميذ المنتسبين إلى الصف الأول من التعليم الأساسي و بشكل متسارع جداً. لابد لمواجهة هذا الواقع من وضع خطط سنوية من قبل المعنيين لمواجهة الالتزامات المتوقعة لكل عام جديد: المدارس، الشعب، المعلمين، المقررات.....
هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى وضع نماذج قياسية للتنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ المتوقع توافدهم إلى الصف الأول و توفيق أفضل نموذج من نماذج ،Box-Jenkins تعليم أساسي باستخدام منهجية(بوكس جنكينز) ARIMA و ARMA. خلصت الدراسة إلى وضع نموذج يمكن استخدامه في التنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ، و تم التنبؤ بأعدادهم حتى عام 2015، و هذا ما يشكل قاعدة علمية لوضع خطط التعليم و الخطط المرتبطة بها.
This study aimed to analyze the status of shares related to the
banking sector in Amman Stock Exchange, through the use of time series
analysis, relying on the achievement of the following objectives:
1- Analysis of the status of shares related to
the banking sector in
Amman Stock Exchange, through the use of time series analysis.
2- Access to an efficient market through the application of the
conditions existing in the market.
3- Analysis of the status of the general trend of stock prices in
Amman Stock Exchange, through the turnover rate of shares over
twelve months for eight years starting from 2000-2007 in order to
find the variables affecting performance.
4- Identifying the most important components of the time series
affecting stock prices in Amman Stock Exchange (seasonal,
periodical, and random), in addition to identifying which of these
components are responsible for stock price changes.
5- Trying to determine the general tendency of the time series of
stock prices for the coming period through the use of the model of
basic components.
This study was based on three major hypotheses. The study sample
consisted of the banks listed in Amman Stock Exchange with a total of 17
banks. Furthermore, Microsoft Office Excel had been used to analyze the
data of turnover rate of shares in Amman Stock Exchange to reach
conclusions.
The study came to a number of conclusions such as:
• Results showed that the influence of irregular variables on the
turnover rate of shares related to the banking sector, listed in
Amman Stock Exchange, was clear, in addition to the impact of
changes related to the general trend as well as the seasonal and
periodical changes.
• Results showed that the size of circulation plays a major role in
changing the direction of prices. Thus, in the case of higher prices,
increased circulation is desired, while decreased circulation will be
the case for low prices.
Based on the above conclusions, the researcher presented a series
of suitable recommendations for the use of analysis model of time series
in analyzing the status of shares in Amman Stock Exchange.
The aim of this study was to apply Box- Jenkins methodology represented by ARIMA models, to forecast some indicators of foreign trade in Syria, and to know if these models are effective in forecasting. The main results were: -The time series for the
indicator of trade exposure in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.-The time series for the indicator of import- export covering in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences. - ARIMA (1,1,1) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of trade exposure, and it is effective model. - ARIMA (2,1,0) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of import- export covering, and it is effective model.
The study aims at comparing ARIMA models and the exponential
smoothing method in forecasting. This study also highlights the special
and basic concepts of ARIMA model and the exponential smoothing
method.
The comparison focuses on the ability
of both methods to forecast
the time series with a narrow range of one point to another and the time
series with a long range of one point to another, and also on the different
lengths of the forecasting periods. Currency exchange rates of Shekel to
American dollar were used to make this comparison in the period
between 25/1/2010 to 22/10/2016. In addition, weekly gold prices were
considered in the period between 10/1/2010 to 23/10/2016. RMSE
standard was used in order to compare between both methods. In this
study, the researcher came up with the conclusion that ARIMA models
give a better forecasting for the time series with a long range of one point
to another and for long term forecasting, but cannot produce a better
forecasting for time series with a narrow range of one point to another as
in currency exchange prices.
On the contrary, exponential smoothing method can give better
forecasting for Exchange Rates that has a narrow range of one point to
another for its time series, while it cannot give better forecasting for long
term forecasting periods
