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Register a new userEquilibrium relationship between Exchange rate and economic indicators of Syrian economy
العلاقة التوازنية بين سعر الصرف و مؤشرات الاقتصاد السوري
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Aِl-Baath University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2017
fields
Economy
and research's language is
العربية
Created by
Shamra Editor
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يتضمن البحث بناء نموذج رياضي لتحديد العلاقة التوازنية طويلة الأجل بين سعر صرف الليرة السورية و مؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي باستخدام البيانات السنوية للفترة (2011-1890) من خلال توظيف أسلوب جوهانسن للتكامل المشترك لبيان محددات سعر الصرف و بيان مؤشرات الاقتصاد الكلي الأكثر مساهمة في تحديد سعر الصرف على المدى الطويل، حيث يهدف البحث إلى تحديد العلاقة التوازنية طويل الأجل بين سعر صرف الليرة السورية و مؤشرات الاقتصاد السوري؛ و تحديد درجة الارتباط بين كل من مؤشرات الاقتصاد السوري و سعر صرف الليرة السورية؛ و تحديد العلاقة السببية بين كل من مؤشرات الاقتصاد السوري و سعر صرف الليرة السورية.
This research presents a model to determine the exchange rate for the Syrian Pound in the long term by using monetary quantity theory; it uses annual data for the period of 1980 to 2011; it employs Johansen co-integration technique by using E-Views statistic program. The research purpose is to determinate the equilibrium relationship between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and economic indicators in the long term, besides studying the Granger Causality Test between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and economic indicators; and analyzing the correlation relationship Test between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and economic indicators.
References used
MISHKIN,F, 2001"The Economics of Money, Banking Financial Markets", Sixth Edition, USA, P156
Mishkin,Frederic s. 2002"The Economics of Money, Banking Financial Markets", Seventh Edition, printed in USA, 221-222
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The financial markets play an important role in the economies of the developing and
undeveloped countries likewise. As they are ones of the financial political tools are
used in filling the local savings and an attractive instrument for the foreign
investments in addition to its active role in financing the growing economic plans.
The study aimed to test the effect of changing exchange rate of the Syrian pound
against the dollar on the shares of joint stock companies listed on the Damascus
Securities Exchange, the study covered the monthly data for the period extending
from July 2011 until November 2015.
The interest rate is one of the most important way by the
monetary police for achieving its economical goal and raising
growth rate, it effects on banking activity by accepting deposits
and giving loans, which mean that harmonic between the
struc
ture of banking deposits and loans give a needed support to
investment, production and income to reach the stability
economic.
To show the relationship between interest and growth rates, we
have to aware the various effectives of inflation and population
rates on real growth, so we study it by using statistical system
SPSS.
Shadow economy is considered the most important economic problem which is still of concern to researchers for it is linked to all economic variables. It is found in all States with different economic patterns. But it is more widespread in developing
economies includes a recipe for lawful activities and other illegal .And it exists in all economic levels and affect all social strata and in all ages. Despite its characterization as a phenomenon, it cannot be overlooked as a reality.
Depending on that, this research tried to clarify the concept of the shadow economy, and identify its components. As well as, this research shows the most important macroeconomic indicators in Syria and the impact of economic variables on the shadow economy.
Syria suffers from an unfair war against it for more than four years, involving the
forces of old and new Zionist- US colonialism and the Persian Gulf States, Turkey and
other allied states. This war affected all aspects on the life of the Syrian c
ommunity, but I
will focus in the research on the economic impact, particularly on the exchange rate of
monetary policy and fiscal policy too. I will focus on the exchange rate as it reflects the
price of one currency against the other currency or currencies, and I used the dollar
exchange rate because it is the most commonly used in Syrian economic transactions, The
Syrian pound is linked with the us dollar in 1947 under law No.304/on 2 February 1947
and identified rate of the Syrian pound equivalent to (0, 405513) grams of gold, i.e. (45,6)
cents.The importance of exchange rate was revealed with the growing expansion of
international commercial exchanges of goods and services, financial transactions, and in
the digital language how many of Syrian pounds shall be sold or abandoned to obtain one
unit of another currency or USD, for example, so we can notice the importance of
exchange rate stability, and therefore one of the most important responsibilities of the
monetary policy in Central Bank, is to create an exchange rate that helps to boost economic
activity on the macro and micro level and contribute to increase the economic power.
The purpose of this research is to explain the impact of money supply on inflation in
the Syrian economy by using cointegration and causality test as a method during (1996 –
2010). The results of this research has showed that there is no causality
relation runs from
the money supply into inflation indicator. In addition, here is no long run effect between
the Consumer price index and the inflation in Syria as Johansson’s Co-integration Test has
showed.
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