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Register a new userThe impact of war on the exchange rate and the monetary and fiscal Syrian policy
تأثير الحرب على سعر الصرف و السياسة النقدية و المالية السورية
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حيان سلمان( باحث )
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تتعرض سورية لحرب ظالمة منذ أكثر من أربع سنوات، و يشارك فيها قوى الاستعمار القديم و الجديد و التحالف الصهيوأمريكي و دول الخليج و تركيا و غيرها من الدول التي تدور في فلكها، و أثرت على كل جوانب الحياة المجتمعية السورية سأركز في بحثي هذا على تأثيرها الاقتصادي, و خاصة على سعر الصرف التابع للسياسة النقدية و على السياسة المالية أيضا، و سأركز على سعر الصرف لأنه يعبر عن سعر عملة ما مقابل عملة أو عملات أخرى. استخدمنا سعر صرف الدولار لأنه الأكثر استخداما في التعاملات الاقتصادية السورية، و تجدر الإشارة إلى أن الليرة السورية ارتبطت مع الدولار الأمريكي منذ عام 1947 بموجب القانون رقم /304/ تاريخ 2/2/ 1947 و حدد سعر الليرة السورية بما يعادل (0.405513) غرام ذهب و تعادل ( 45.6) سنتا، و قد ظهرت أهمية سعر الصرف مع تزايد و توسع التبادلات التجارية الدولية للسلع و الخدمات و التعاملات المالية، و بلغة رقمية كم من الليرات السورية يجب بيعها أو التخلي عنها للحصول على وحدة واحدة من العملات الأخرى أو الدولار مثلا، و من هنا يتبين لنا أهمية استقرار سعر الصرف، و لذلك فإن من أهم مسؤوليات السياسة النقدية المتجسدة في البنك المركزي (بنك البنوك)، هو إيجاد سعر صرف يسهم في تفعيل النشاط الاقتصادي على المستوى الكلي و الجزئي و المساهمة في زيادة القوة الاقتصادية .
Syria suffers from an unfair war against it for more than four years, involving the forces of old and new Zionist- US colonialism and the Persian Gulf States, Turkey and other allied states. This war affected all aspects on the life of the Syrian community, but I will focus in the research on the economic impact, particularly on the exchange rate of monetary policy and fiscal policy too. I will focus on the exchange rate as it reflects the price of one currency against the other currency or currencies, and I used the dollar exchange rate because it is the most commonly used in Syrian economic transactions, The Syrian pound is linked with the us dollar in 1947 under law No.304/on 2 February 1947 and identified rate of the Syrian pound equivalent to (0, 405513) grams of gold, i.e. (45,6) cents.The importance of exchange rate was revealed with the growing expansion of international commercial exchanges of goods and services, financial transactions, and in the digital language how many of Syrian pounds shall be sold or abandoned to obtain one unit of another currency or USD, for example, so we can notice the importance of exchange rate stability, and therefore one of the most important responsibilities of the monetary policy in Central Bank, is to create an exchange rate that helps to boost economic activity on the macro and micro level and contribute to increase the economic power.
References used
عباد، محمود-مجلة جامعة تشرين، مجلة فصلية،المجلد 28 ، العدد 2، صفحة 45 عام 2006
كتاب الأزمة السورية – الجذور والآثار الاقتصادية والاجتماعية، المركز السوري لبحوث السياسات،كانون الثاني 2013 ، صفحة 479
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This research aims to identify the impact of monetary policies adopted by the Central
Bank of Syria on the purchasing value of the Syrian pound. According to scientific
principles based on reading the reality of the Syrian economy, and the correspo
nding
policies and procedures to this fact, and for this reason the study depended on the tables
and curves and economic analysis and also the extent of the impact of those policies on
low-income social strata. Especially in the current crisis due to the low exchange rate of
the Syrian pound against foreign currencies and high inflation rate in an unprecedented
way. In addition to the study of the impact the economical changes which affect the value
of the Syrian pound that could be out of control of the Central Bank of Syria . the study
found the subjective factor was not at the level required to contain the objective factor, that
is, those policies and procedures were not at the required level, or were limited to one tool
of monetary policy tools and therefore did not work to stabilize the national currency, and
thus prices stability, that is the ultimate purpose of monetary policy at the Central Bank of
Syria.
The financial markets play an important role in the economies of the developing and
undeveloped countries likewise. As they are ones of the financial political tools are
used in filling the local savings and an attractive instrument for the foreign
investments in addition to its active role in financing the growing economic plans.
The study aimed to test the effect of changing exchange rate of the Syrian pound
against the dollar on the shares of joint stock companies listed on the Damascus
Securities Exchange, the study covered the monthly data for the period extending
from July 2011 until November 2015.
In this paper is providing a proof for existing gap between theory
and practice in the monetary policy of Islamic economic system
based on studying a case of Islamic Republic of Iran. The Iranian
monetary policy makers using widely participation p
aper as a dualinstrument
for monetary control and finance the investing &
infrastructure projects. In addition, the central bank of Iran using
profit rate effectively due to its monetary policy.
There is common sense that fiscal deficit represent a rival challenge to any fiscal
policy mainly with a collapse of public revenues, the absence of financial markets,
and a slowdown of GDP. Thus there are many risks facing budget stability. We
be
lieve that fiscal situation will deteriorate dramatically as a result of; recent
political crises, international sanctions, incapability to access to external resources of
funding. and Central Bank of Syria role in financing not fiscal deficit, but public
expenditures. Furthermore, the central bank depends mainly on an intervention in
foreign exchange market for preventing the collapse of Syrian Lira, which exhausted
foreign assets.
This research presents a model to determine the exchange
rate for the Syrian Pound in the long term by using monetary
quantity theory; it uses annual data for the period of 1980 to 2011;
it employs Johansen co-integration technique by using E-View
s
statistic program. The research purpose is to determinate the
equilibrium relationship between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound
and economic indicators in the long term, besides studying the
Granger Causality Test between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and
economic indicators; and analyzing the correlation relationship Test
between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and economic indicators.
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