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Register a new userThe Relationship Between Shadow Economy and Macroeconomic Indicators in Syria
العلاقة بين اقتصاد الظل والمؤشرات الاقتصادية الكلية في سورية
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يعتبر اقتصاد الظل من أهم المشكلات الاقتصادية التي مازالت تأخذ الحيز الواسع من اهتمامات الباحثين ، وذلك لارتباطه بكافة المتغيرات الاقتصادية، فهو موجود في جميع الدول على اختلاف أنماطها الاقتصادية ولكنه أوسعُ انتشاراً في الاقتصاديات النامية ويتضمن في طياته أنشطة مشروعة وأخرى غير مشروعة. و هو موجود في كافة المستويات الاقتصادية ويمس كافة الشرائح الاجتماعية ويضم كافة المراحل العمرية ، وبالرغم من توصيفه كظاهرة لا يمكن التغاضي عن كونه واقعاً قائماً ومستمراً . بناء على ماتقدم جاء هذا البحث لتوضيح مفهوم اقتصاد الظل ، والتعرف على مكوناته كذلك يوضح البحث أهم حسابات الدخل القومي ودرجة ارتباطها باقتصاد الظل وبيان أثر بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية على اقتصاد الظل
Shadow economy is considered the most important economic problem which is still of concern to researchers for it is linked to all economic variables. It is found in all States with different economic patterns. But it is more widespread in developing economies includes a recipe for lawful activities and other illegal .And it exists in all economic levels and affect all social strata and in all ages. Despite its characterization as a phenomenon, it cannot be overlooked as a reality. Depending on that, this research tried to clarify the concept of the shadow economy, and identify its components. As well as, this research shows the most important macroeconomic indicators in Syria and the impact of economic variables on the shadow economy.
References used
GROSSMAN,G.The informal Economy …Studies In Advanced and L.D.CS ,1989,P150-151
FIGE,E. "Defining And Estimating Under Ground Economy .And Informal Economy ,The New Institutional Economic Approach " University of Wisconsin, Madison World Development , VOL18 ,NO7, 1990 .P 6-7-8
“Women And Men In the Informal Economy A statistical picture” International Labour Office, Geneva,2002, p 10-11
SCHANIDER,F;ENSTE, D. the shadow economy an international survey, Cambridge university, United kindom,2009
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Given The Importance of Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and
Financial Market for Researchers, Investors and officials, This Relationship has been
Studied in This Research during Period 1-1-2010 to 31-12-2011 Using Monthly Data for
Nom
inal Effective Exchange Rate SNEER, Money Supply SM2, Exports Coverage
Imports SXM, Inflation Rate SINF, Damascus Market Index SDWX.
Stability of Time Series Studied through Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen
Co-Integration Test Confirmed There is Longitudinal Relationship-Term, Using Granger-
Causality Test Appeared That The Relationship Reciprocal between Money Supply and
The Index, Nominal Effective Exchange Rate is Causing Change in The Index, VAR
Model Estimated, and Characterized by High R2, Jarque-Bera Test Shows The Residuals
do not Follow Normal Distribution, Finally, Prediction in Some Time Periods Close to
Realistic Values of Index. By Analyzing This Result We Come up That The Relationship
between Macroeconomic Variables and Damascus Market Index has a Medium Strength.
The phenomenon of the shadow economy represents a threat to the national economy in most countries because it is high rates of gross national product., Which includes all economic activities practiced by individuals or companies have been not recorde
d officially and not intervened in the national income accounts also it not subject to the administrative and legal systems , it will leads to mislead in statistics and information and making it inaccurate and shows not true potential of the state, which in turn lead to the misallocation of economic resources and the gross national product. This research aims to study the causes of this phenomenon and ways of tackling them in Syria.
This research presents a model to determine the exchange
rate for the Syrian Pound in the long term by using monetary
quantity theory; it uses annual data for the period of 1980 to 2011;
it employs Johansen co-integration technique by using E-View
s
statistic program. The research purpose is to determinate the
equilibrium relationship between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound
and economic indicators in the long term, besides studying the
Granger Causality Test between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and
economic indicators; and analyzing the correlation relationship Test
between Exchange rate of Syrian Pound and economic indicators.
The study aimed to explain the causal relationship between
macroeconomic variables and the stock market in Turkey,
Represented by GDP and Inflation, using annual data for the
period 1991 to 2016, Where descriptive method was used to
present the c
oncepts of variables, In addition to the statistical
method which use the tests of stationary, the natural distribution,
the linear regression equation multiplied by the normal lower
squares (OLS), and causal testing, using the statistical program
(Eviews10).
The results of social market economy exercise in Syria have been arguably debated. Some took a firm stand in defending it, while others harshly criticized it. This research aims at providing an unbiased assessment of the social market economy exercis
e by reviewing some developmental indictors over the period 2005-2010. The outcomes of this research indicate that the failures outweighed the successes. Although, the social market economy exercise resulted in good rates of output growth, reduced the volume of the external debt, and increased the total foreign reserves. However, it failed in enhancing the structure of the Syrian economy, and in promoting a sustainable growth that is capable of matching the population rise. Also, it failed in creating a flexible labour market that provides jobs, and it failed in reducing poverty rates and improving purchasing power of the individuals.
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