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Mathematical modeling of the relationship between number of higher education students and social and economic factors in Syria

النمذجة الرياضية للعلاقة بين أعداد طلبة التعليم العالي و العوامل الاجتماعية و الاقتصادية في سورية

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 Publication date 2014
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This study aims to find the best social and economic factors that affect the number of students in higher education using the descriptive analysis approach, and find the mathematical model that connects the principal components representing the social and economic factors and the number of students in higher education in Syria. The most important results that have reached were the principal components representing the social and economic factors, after doing the orthogonal rotation and was representing the first component (number of members the labor force that are gainfully) employed, the number of population per health doctor, number of members, the labor force that are self-employed, number of members the labor force that are unmarried, number of population per dentist, higher education budget, and number of nurses. And the four thcomponent (number of members the labor force that are married), both components affected positively on the number of students in higher education, the second component (economic activity rate of the human power, average number of people per pharmacist, number of members the labor force that are gainfully unemployed, the third component (number of members the labor force that are divorced and widowed) affected negatively on the number of students in higher education.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحديد العوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية الأكثر تأثيراً على أعداد طلبة التعليم العالي في سوريا باستخدام منهج التحليل الوصفي والنمذجة الرياضية. تم استخدام أسلوب التحليل العاملي لاستخلاص المركبات الأساسية الممثلة للعوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية. أظهرت النتائج أن المركبات الأساسية الأربعة التي تمثل العوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية هي: المركب الأول الذي يشمل عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون بأجر، عدد السكان لكل طبيب صحة، عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون لحسابهم، عدد أفراد قوة العمل غير المتزوجين، عدد السكان لكل طبيب أسنان، موازنة التعليم العالي، وعدد الممرضين والممرضات. المركب الثاني يشمل معدل النشاط الاقتصادي للقوة البشرية، متوسط عدد السكان لكل صيدلاني، وعدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون بدون أجر. المركب الثالث يشمل عدد أفراد قوة العمل المطلقين والأرامل، والمركب الرابع يشمل عدد أفراد قوة العمل المتزوجين. تم بناء نموذج رياضي يمثل العلاقة بين هذه المركبات وأعداد طلبة التعليم العالي، وأظهرت النتائج أن المركبين الأول والرابع يؤثران بشكل إيجابي على أعداد الطلبة، بينما يؤثر المركبان الثاني والثالث بشكل سلبي.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر هذه الدراسة ذات أهمية كبيرة في فهم العوامل المؤثرة على أعداد طلبة التعليم العالي في سوريا، ولكن هناك بعض النقاط التي يمكن تحسينها. أولاً، الدراسة تعتمد بشكل كبير على البيانات الإحصائية من فترة زمنية محددة (1995-2010)، مما قد يجعل النتائج غير محدثة أو غير قابلة للتطبيق في السياق الحالي. ثانياً، الدراسة تركز بشكل رئيسي على العوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية دون النظر إلى العوامل السياسية والأمنية التي قد تكون لها تأثير كبير في السياق السوري. ثالثاً، النموذج الرياضي المستخدم قد يكون معقداً بالنسبة لصناع القرار غير المتخصصين في الإحصاء، مما قد يحد من تطبيق النتائج بشكل عملي. وأخيراً، كان من الممكن أن تكون الدراسة أكثر شمولية إذا تم تضمين مقارنات مع دول أخرى في المنطقة لتقديم رؤية أكثر شمولية.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي العوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية التي تؤثر بشكل إيجابي على أعداد طلبة التعليم العالي في سوريا؟

    العوامل التي تؤثر بشكل إيجابي تشمل عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون بأجر، عدد السكان لكل طبيب صحة، عدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون لحسابهم، عدد أفراد قوة العمل غير المتزوجين، عدد السكان لكل طبيب أسنان، موازنة التعليم العالي، وعدد الممرضين والممرضات.

  2. ما هي العوامل التي تؤثر بشكل سلبي على أعداد طلبة التعليم العالي في سوريا؟

    العوامل التي تؤثر بشكل سلبي تشمل معدل النشاط الاقتصادي للقوة البشرية، متوسط عدد السكان لكل صيدلاني، وعدد أفراد قوة العمل الذين يعملون بدون أجر، وعدد أفراد قوة العمل المطلقين والأرامل.

  3. ما هو المنهج الذي استخدمته الدراسة لاستخلاص المركبات الأساسية للعوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية؟

    استخدمت الدراسة أسلوب التحليل العاملي لاستخلاص المركبات الأساسية للعوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية.

  4. هل النموذج الرياضي الذي تم التوصل إليه في الدراسة معنوي؟

    نعم، النموذج الرياضي الذي تم التوصل إليه معنوي، حيث أظهرت النتائج أن هناك علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين أعداد طلبة التعليم العالي والعوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية.


References used
GEOFFRY; K et al ; The influence factor analysis of comprehensive energy consumption in manufacturing enterprises; Procedia Computer; 17; 2013; p754
ALBRIGHT; J& PRAK; H; Confirmatory Factor Analysis using Amos, LISREL, Mplus, SAS/STAT CALIS; Working paper. the University Information Technology(UITS) center for Statistical and Mathematical computing; Indiana university; 2009; p2
BURTON; B et al; A confirmatory factor analysis of the WMS-III in a clinical sample with crossvalidation in the standardization sample; Archives of Clinical Neuropsychology ; 18 ; 2003. P630
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