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Register a new userDeterminants of National saving in Syria Econometric Study (1980-2012)
المحددات الرئيسة للادخار القومي في سورية دراسة قياسية للفترة 1980-2012 م
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Added by
Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2014
fields
Economy
and research's language is
العربية
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Shamra Editor
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يعد الادخار من أهم مؤشرات النمو الاقتصادي و عاملاً هاماً في تمويل الاستثمار المحلي وصولاً إلى رفع معدل النمو الاقتصادي. يهدف البحث انطلاقاً من ذلك إلى البحث عن المتغيرات التي تؤثر في سلوك الادخار القومي في سورية، حيث يقوم البحث أولاً باختيار المتغيرات و من ثم اختبار سكون السلاسل الزمنية الخاصة بالمتغيرات المختارة و مدى معنويتها، و أخيراً استخدام التكامل المشترك و نموذج تصحيح الخطأ. يخلص البحث إلى وجود أثر إيجابي لكل من معدل التضخم و معدل النمو الاقتصادي الحقيقي في الادخار القومي و تأثير سلبي للدخل القومي المتاح في الادخار القومي، كما أن معدل تصحيح الخطأ معنوي و نسبتة 100% ، مما يشير إلى وجود علاقة توازنية طويلة الأجل بين الادخار القومي و المتغيرات المستقلة موضوع البحث.
Saving is an important indicator of economic development as it is an element which finances domestic investment to achieve economic growth. The purpose of this research is to determine the variables that affect Syria’s national savings, by testing the expected variables, applying the unit root test on the time series of the variables, then using the Johansen cointegration test and an error correction model. The conclusion is that inflation and real economic growth positively affect national saving whereas national disposable income has a negative effect. The speed of adjustment is significant and 100% which indicates that there is cointegration between the variables of the study and national savings.
References used
ATTANASIO, O. , PICCI, L. & SCORCU, A. Saving, Growth, and Investment. Review Of Economics And Statistics.Vol.82,No.2.2000,182-211
CARROLL, C. ; WEIL, D. Saving and Growth a reinterpretation. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 40,1994. -Mohan, R. Causal Relationship Between Savings and Economic Growth in Countries with Different Income Levels. Economics Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 3, 2006
TOUNY, M. Determinants of Domestic Saving Performance in Egypt: An Empirical Study. Journal of Commercial Studies and Researches, Faculty of Commerce, Benha University, No. 1, 2008
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