This research investigates the main factors (domestic and foreign) affecting inflation rate in Syria.
Choosing the factors is based on the analysis of the major economic hypothesis concerning inflation determinants such as: excess purchasing power,
cost push inflation, foreign inflation.
By using OLS method, we find long run function, and it shows that the excess purchasing power has no significant effect on inflation rate.
The error correction model shows that high cost rate has the biggest effect on inflation rate in the short run.
Saving is an important indicator of economic development as it is an element which
finances domestic investment to achieve economic growth. The purpose of this research is
to determine the variables that affect Syria’s national savings, by testing
the expected
variables, applying the unit root test on the time series of the variables, then using the
Johansen cointegration test and an error correction model. The conclusion is that inflation
and real economic growth positively affect national saving whereas national disposable
income has a negative effect. The speed of adjustment is significant and 100% which
indicates that there is cointegration between the variables of the study and national savings.
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل سلوك الطلب على النقود في سورية اعتماداً على بيانات ربع سنوية
تشمل الفترة ١٩٧٤-١٩٩٤ . و استخدم الناتج المحلي الإجمالي بأسعار ١٩٨٥ ، و معدل التضخم، في
تقدير دوال الطلب على النقود الحقيقية. و قد توطدت علاقة طلب على النقود مس
تقرة طويلة الأجل
بين هذه المتغيرات. و قدرت هذه العلاقة باستخدام نموذج تصحيح الخطأ و أسلوب التكامل المشترك.
و نتيجة لانغلاق الاقتصاد السوري مالياً، فقد أخفق معدل الفائدة، و سعر الصرف في تفسير سلوك
الطلب على النقود.
This study investigates the relationship between the financial
development and the economic growth in Syria during the period
(1980-2010). The financial development was measured by the
credit granted to the private sector and the broad money M2
whereas the economic growth was measured by the real gross
domestic product per capita.
