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Register a new userThe use of VAR models in forecasting and studying the causal relationship between gross domestic product GDPand gross fixed capital formation GFCF in Syria
استخدام نماذج VAR في التنبؤ ودراسة العلاقة السببية بين إجمالي الناتج المحلي و إجمالي التكوين الرأسمالي في سورية
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هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى استنتاج نموذج قياسي مبني على نماذج ( Vectorial AutoRegressive) VAR للتنبؤ بإجمالي الناتج المحلي GDP في سورية، و كذلك إجمالي التكوين الرأسمالي الثابت GFCF, و دراسة علاقة التأثير فيما بينهما.
This study aims at developing an econometric model based on VAR (Vectorial AutoRegressive) models to predict the gross domestic product GDP in Syria as well as the gross fixed capital formation GFCF, it also aims at studying the effect relationship between them.
References used
BERA, A.K. and Jarque .C.M.(1981), "An efficient large Sample test for normality of observations and regression residuals ", Working paper in Econometrics No 40,Australion National university, Canberra
Cromwell, J. B., Hannan M. J., Labys W. C. and Terraza M. (1994), "Multivariate tests for Time SeriesModels", SAGE publications, Inc. California
Dickey D. and Fuller W.(1979), " Distribution of the estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a unit Root ", Journal of the American Statistical Association, n74: pp .427-431
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homogeneity which is conduc
tive to arrive at accurate results and secondly
because the significant changes in the Syrian government's policies in the
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The study aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices
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This research highlight the business activities and the role of small and mediumsized
enterprises SME's in the national economy, and expectancy role of this sector is
increasing economic activity, securing jobs and increasing gross domestic product
GDP in
general.
It also focuses on the most important characteristics and features of the sector of
SME's in Syria. In addition to review of the main weaknesses facing the national economy
in general and this sector, in particular, which contributed to the derivation of many
suggestions contribute to the advancement and development of business environment and
SME's and to the promotion and support its role in national economy.
البطالة
Unemployment
النمو الاقتصادي
المشاريع الصغيرة و المتوسطة
Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
أنشطة الأعمال
النشاط الاقتصادي
بيئة الأعمال
الاقتصاد الوطني
الناتج المحلي و الإجمالي
business activities
economic activity
economic growth
business environment
national economy
domestic product GDP
المزيد..
The index of consumer prices is an important economic indicators,
which are relied upon as an indicator of the scale where
expresses the good economic performance so attention is required
to correct the methods predictable given the important econ
omic
effects, including the stock market This study aimed to the
conclusion based on the models VAR standard form of inflation.
Recent technological developments have led to a major development in the ebusiness
environment, announcing the emergence of the new term “knowledge economy”
as one of the most important economic nomenclatures. E-commerce which is considered as
one
of the most significant applications of this economy has evolved a lot in the last decade
according to the evolution of its revenue in many countries around the world.
E-commerce contributes to the economic development through its positive impact on
a range of economic indicators such as GDP and export development. The aim of this
research is to study whether there was a correlation between the development of electronic
commerce and the amount of Syrian exports and imports during the period between 2000
and 2010. The results showed a good correlation between the above mentioned variables,
but with no possibility to assert whether it was a causal correlation in the light of general
economic conditions in Syria during that period.
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