Do you want to publish a course? Click here

The use of VAR models in forecasting and studying the causal relationship between gross domestic product GDPand gross fixed capital formation GFCF in Syria

استخدام نماذج VAR في التنبؤ ودراسة العلاقة السببية بين إجمالي الناتج المحلي و إجمالي التكوين الرأسمالي في سورية

3976   3   164   0 ( 0 )
 Publication date 2011
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




Ask ChatGPT about the research

This study aims at developing an econometric model based on VAR (Vectorial AutoRegressive) models to predict the gross domestic product GDP in Syria as well as the gross fixed capital formation GFCF, it also aims at studying the effect relationship between them.



References used
BERA, A.K. and Jarque .C.M.(1981), "An efficient large Sample test for normality of observations and regression residuals ", Working paper in Econometrics No 40,Australion National university, Canberra
Cromwell, J. B., Hannan M. J., Labys W. C. and Terraza M. (1994), "Multivariate tests for Time SeriesModels", SAGE publications, Inc. California
Dickey D. and Fuller W.(1979), " Distribution of the estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a unit Root ", Journal of the American Statistical Association, n74: pp .427-431
rate research

Read More

This paper tests the relationship between economic growth and human development using annual data from Syria for the period 1970-2000. This period is chosen for two reasons; firstly because of its political and economic homogeneity which is conduc tive to arrive at accurate results and secondly because the significant changes in the Syrian government's policies in the fields of education and health like the opining for the first time of private universities and open learning programs and the involvement of the private sector in providing health services and health insurance.
This research highlight the business activities and the role of small and mediumsized enterprises SME's in the national economy, and expectancy role of this sector is increasing economic activity, securing jobs and increasing gross domestic product GDP in general. It also focuses on the most important characteristics and features of the sector of SME's in Syria. In addition to review of the main weaknesses facing the national economy in general and this sector, in particular, which contributed to the derivation of many suggestions contribute to the advancement and development of business environment and SME's and to the promotion and support its role in national economy.
The index of consumer prices is an important economic indicators, which are relied upon as an indicator of the scale where expresses the good economic performance so attention is required to correct the methods predictable given the important econ omic effects, including the stock market This study aimed to the conclusion based on the models VAR standard form of inflation.
Recent technological developments have led to a major development in the ebusiness environment, announcing the emergence of the new term “knowledge economy” as one of the most important economic nomenclatures. E-commerce which is considered as one of the most significant applications of this economy has evolved a lot in the last decade according to the evolution of its revenue in many countries around the world. E-commerce contributes to the economic development through its positive impact on a range of economic indicators such as GDP and export development. The aim of this research is to study whether there was a correlation between the development of electronic commerce and the amount of Syrian exports and imports during the period between 2000 and 2010. The results showed a good correlation between the above mentioned variables, but with no possibility to assert whether it was a causal correlation in the light of general economic conditions in Syria during that period.

suggested questions

comments
Fetching comments Fetching comments
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا