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Register a new userSyrian Crisis Development Policies, Economic and Social impacts
الأزمة السورية السياسات التنموية و الآثار الاقتصادية و الاجتماعية
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محمود زنبوعه( باحث )
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تدهورت الأزمة الراهنة التي تمر بها سورية منذ ربيع عام 2011 إلى نزاع مسلح مسبباً آثاراً مأساوية في الأداء التنموي من خلال تدمير واسع للبنى التحتية و المقدرات و الإمكانيات الاقتصادية، لتصل إلى خسائر غير قابلة للاحتمال للأجيال الحالية و المستقبلية. و قد كان للسياسات الاقتصادية و الاجتماعية غير الفاعلة للحكومة خلال العقد الماضي – ما قبل الأزمة– دوراً أساسياً فيما آلت إليه الأوضاع، هذا فضلاً عن الظروف الموضوعية الأخرى كالعقوبات الاقتصادية المفروضة على سورية من قِبل الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية و لاحقا مًن قِبل الاتحاد الأوروبي فضلاً عن وسائل الضغط الأخرى لإجبار سورية على التخلي عن رؤيتها الخاصة للتطور الاقتصادي و سبل حل الصراع العربي – الإسرائيلي. حاولنا في هذا البحث إلقاء الضوء على تلك السياسات الاقتصادية و الاجتماعية و نتائجها و من ثم تقدير الخسائر الاقتصادية الناجمة عن الأعمال التخريبية للعصابات المسلحة باستخدام منهجية تقوم على مقارنة المؤشرات الاقتصادية و الاجتماعية في أثناء الأزمة في عامي 2011 و 2012 بالوضع الذي كانت ستكون عيه هذه المؤشرات بافتراض استمرار حالة ما قبل الأزمة و الآثار الاقتصادية و الاجتماعية المترتبة على ذلك مستفيدين من حسابات و تقديرات قام بها مجموعة من الباحثين السوريين في المركز السوري لبحوث السياسات.
The current crisis has been deteriorating in Syria since the spring of 2011 with an armed conflict which is causing catastrophic effects on development performance through the wide-spread destruction of infra-structure as well as the capabilities and potential economic losses which will impact upon the prospects for both current and future generations. It was those economic and social policies which were already ineffective for the government during the past decade - before the current crisis played a key role in this situation. In addition, there were the objective conditions of other economic sanctions placed upon Syria by the United States, and later by the European Union, including other pressures to force Syria to abandon its own vision of economic development and the ways to solve the Arab - Israeli conflict. The aim of this study is to shed light on those economic and social policies and their results and then to estimate the economic losses which have been caused by acts of sabotage by armed gangs by using a methodology based on the comparison of economic and social indicators during the crisis in 2011 and 2012. This methodology will take into account those economic and social policy indicators which would be determined without the current crisis and by also assuming the continuation of the pre-crisis effects. It will be the economic and social implications of the beneficiaries of the accounts and estimates which will be carried out by a group of Syrian researchers in the Syrian Centre for Policy Research. ...
References used
الجمعية السورية للثقافة والمعرفة- المركز السوري لبحوث السياسات – الأزمة السورية: . الجذور والآثار الاقتصادية والاجتماعية – كانون الثاني 2013
التقرير الحكومي عن واقع التجارة الخارجية في سورية خلال فترة الأزمة ويتضمن مقارنة بين . واقع التجارة الخارجية الربع الأول من عام 2013 مع الربع الأول من عام 2011
Economic Development and Prospects 2009. The World Bank. 3October2009
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