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Register a new userEconomic Losses of Government Transport Sector Caused by the Syrian Crisis
الخسائر الاقتصادية لقطاع النقل الحكومي الناجم عن الأزمة السورية
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محمود زنبوعه( باحث )
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يوفر قطاع النقل الظروف و الشروط الملائمة لعمل باقي قطاعات الاقتصاد الوطني الإنتاجية منها و الخدمية، كما يرتبط معها بعلاقات متبادلة إلى درجة يصبح فيها من الصعب تحقيق أي تقدم في تلك القطاعات دون أن يسبقها أو يرافقها تنمية قطاع النقل. حقق قطاع النقل الحكومي خلال السنوات العشر التي سبقت الأزمة السورية تقدمًا ملموسًا قياسًا إلى المراحل السابقة، و خصص بحجم كبير من الاعتمادات لتنفيذ خططه الاستثمارية. فقد بلغ حجم الاعتماد المخصص للخطة الخمسية التاسعة (2005-2001 )، ما يعادل تقريبًا ما أُنفِق جميعه خلال الخطط الخمسية السابقة. و منذ آذار 2011 تعرضت البنى التحتية (الطرق و الجسور و السكك الحديدية و المطارات و وسائل النقل المختلفة) إلى أعمال تدمير و تخريب ممنهج من قبل المعارضة المسلحة بهدف شل الحياة الاقتصادية و تقطيع أوصال البلد، و من ثَم إضعاف قدرة الدولة على المواجهة. و نظرًا إلى الدور المهم و الحيوي في هذا القطاع قمنا بتقدير الخسائر الاقتصادية (المباشرة و غير المباشرة) الناجمة عن ذلك منطلقين من فرضية استمرار معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للمدة التي سبقت الأزمة البالغ 3.1 % استمراره خلال سنوات الأزمة (2011-2012-2013) (سيناريو استمراري) على اعتبار عام 2010 عام أساس، و مقارنته بالواقع الفعلي لنمو هذا الناتج إذ يمثل الفارق قيمة خسائر الناتج المحلي الإجمالي خلال هذه المدة أو ما يسمى بتكلفة الفرصة البديلة. و بعد إضافة الخسائر المادية المباشرة توصلنا إلى حساب إجمالي الخسائر الاقتصادية التي وصلت إلى نحو ( 85 ) مليار ليرة سورية. و قد مهدنا لذلك من خلال دراسة واقع قطاع النقل الحكومي و تحليله و أدائه بنشاطاته المختلفة (بري و بحري و جوي) خلال السنوات ( 2000-2010).
The transport sector provides favorable conditions to the performance of the rest of the sectors in the economy, including productivity and service. It is also associated with a mutual relationship to the point where it makes it difficult to achieve any progress in those sectors without that which has preceded, or is accompanied by the development of the transport sector. Ten years prior to the Syrian crisis, the public transport sector had achieved significant progress compared to its previous history and had been allocated large government subsidies for investment plans. The amount of the provision of the Ninth Five-Year Plan (2001-2005), was the equivalent of almost all the amount spent during the previous five-year plans. Since March 2011, the infrastructure, (roads, bridges, railways, airports and other transportation), were exposed to systematic acts of destruction and vandalism by the armed opposition whose aim was the paralysis of the economy and the dismemberment of the country to weaken the State's ability to respond to the confrontation. Due to the important role in this sector, we have an estimate of economic losses, (both direct and indirect), from the starting points of the hypothesis of continuing the growth rate of GDP for the period before the crisis and the continuation of 3.1% during the crisis years (2011-2012-2013). (A continuing scenario) on the grounds in 2010 year basis, and compared with the actual reality of the GDP growth, where value represents the difference GDP losses during this period, or called opportunity cost. and after the addition of direct material losses reached to calculate the total economic losses, which amounted to about 85 billion Syrian pounds. The Preceded through the study and analysis of the reality of the performance of the transport sector with various activities government (land, sea and air) during the period (2000-2010) . .
References used
كتاب الاجتماع التقييمي لوزارة النقل لكامل عام 2010 - دمشق في 24/1/2011
كتاب تاريخ النقل في سورية – إعداد خالد عمر كيكي – دمشق ك 2 عام 2006 إشراف المهندس مكرم عبيد وزير النقل.
د.محمد السمهوري- إمكانات الصمود: احتمالات انهيار الاقتصاد السوري بعد العقوبات- . المركز الإقليمي للدراسات الإستراتيجية-القاهرة- 10 شباط 2012
كتاب مجلة النقل – الأضرار المادية و البشرية لوزارة النقل خلال عامي 2011 - 2012
المجموعات الإحصائية السنوية لسنوات الدراسة – المكتب المركزي للإحصاء– دمشق.
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The current crisis has been deteriorating in Syria since the spring of 2011 with an
armed conflict which is causing catastrophic effects on development performance
through the wide-spread destruction of infra-structure as well as the capabilities a
nd
potential economic losses which will impact upon the prospects for both current and
future generations. It was those economic and social policies which were already
ineffective for the government during the past decade - before the current crisis
played a key role in this situation. In addition, there were the objective conditions of
other economic sanctions placed upon Syria by the United States, and later by the
European Union, including other pressures to force Syria to abandon its own vision
of economic development and the ways to solve the Arab - Israeli conflict.
The aim of this study is to shed light on those economic and social policies and their
results and then to estimate the economic losses which have been caused by acts of
sabotage by armed gangs by using a methodology based on the comparison of
economic and social indicators during the crisis in 2011 and 2012. This methodology
will take into account those economic and social policy indicators which would be
determined without the current crisis and by also assuming the continuation of the
pre-crisis effects. It will be the economic and social implications of the beneficiaries
of the accounts and estimates which will be carried out by a group of Syrian
researchers in the Syrian Centre for Policy Research. ...
The transport sector provides suitable and appropriate conditions for the development of
the various sectors of the national economy, productivity and other services. Its
relationship with these sectors is characterized by a mutual influence relati
onship, which
means that no progress or development can be achieved in any of these sectors without
preceded or accompanied by significant progress in the transport sector.
The government has given special importance to this division since the inception of
independence, when the sector was allocated large provision in its successive five-year
plans. After the year 2000, there was a big leap in the provision of the allocations assigned
to the transport sector, where reached (to the ninth five-year plan (2001-2005)) the
equivalent to the expenditure on this sector in the previous five-year plans combined.
The systematic destruction and devastation of the crisis in Syria since March 2011 aimed at
splitting the country and paralyzing the traffic of passengers and goods. As a result, the
transport sector suffered heavy economic losses in its infrastructure and transportation.
These losses were evaluated in this research for the years 2011-2012, 2013 and the state of
the transport sector was reviewed before the crisis.
In view of the importance of this sector and its key role in the reconstruction, there was a
package of proposals and visions that were put forward for the reconstruction of the
infrastructure of the sector itself as a priority and strengthening the role of this sector in the
reconstruction and development within the framework of comprehensive regional planning
and sustainable development.
Perhaps the most important impact of the crisis was the decision of the Syrian state oriental
direction in its policy, which directly affects the implementation of transport networks and
infrastructure and means of transport.
Based on the goal of linking the five seas, which have set a higher goal in the national
framework for regional planning, some visions have been reviewed that can achieve this
goal in order to attract international transport and transit through Syria and exploit its
geographical position as a transport hub leading to an increase in economic growth rate To
raise the contribution of the transport sector to GDP.
The Multi-model transport system inSyria is considered of
slow evolution systems as it is capital intensive in alldifferent
means (land،marine،air،pipelines) and thus predominated by a
high fixed cost economic feature،and this causes an obstacle t
o
the development of multi-modeltransport،and therefore its inability
to compete.
But the hard work in improving thetransportation sector (by
land،sea،air) and the different modes (train،truck،ship،aircraft) and
following the necessarystrategies and logistics to help in
developing it،made the transport sector in Syria contributes a
significant proportion of GDP.
The research aims to study the most important economic efficiency of agricultural
foreign trade indicators, and to identify the most important problems facing the export
companies and organizations working in the field of foreign agricultural trade
, using
descriptive and analytical approach in the treatment of research data. The results show that
the annual growth rate of Syrian exports during the period 2005 to the first year of the
crisis in 2011 amounted to about 15%, and from 2005 until the end of 2014 about 1%. The
export strength top of the share of latency (56%), followed by tomatoes (53%), and apples
(26%), then peaches and lentils (24%), while zero, export strength of the sheep, but some
products such as wheat, barley, chickpeas and corn.
Search results have been reached and there are some problems and obstacles faced by
the operating companies, including the lack of accurate marketing information especially
for foreign markets, and the non-availability of required quantities for export to the
required specifications, or the availability of skilled labor on the post-harvest operations, in
addition to dent some of the ministerial organs, Health and customs and taxes ... and
others.
This research paper offers an analysis of the Syrian Crisis in light of
the Realist Theory of International Relations. It argues that Realism
can provide a better explanation for the conduct of regional and
international powers that intervene in t
he Syrian Crisis. As a
preliminary, the paper will provide a historical overview of partition
of Greater Syria since the beginning of the twentieth century to the
establishment of the present-day Syrian state. This places the Syrian
crisis within a historical context that the researcher believes is
important for a deeper understanding of regional and international
policies towards the Syrian Crisis.
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