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Register a new userChanges in seasonal and annual precipitation characteristics in the Syrian coastal region during the period 1960-2010
تغير خصائص الهطل الفصلي و السنوي في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية خلال الفترة 1960-2010
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Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2015
fields
Agricultural Engineering
and research's language is
العربية
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Shamra Editor
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تعد تغيرات نماذج الهطل أحد أهم الأخطار التي تواجه النظم البيئية الأرضية ، و موارد المياه في مختلف مناطق العالم. تم استخدام قيم الهطل الشهرية لست محطات متيورولوجية في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية ، و لفترة رصد تمتد من عام 1960 حتى عام 2010 ، من أجل دراسة التغير في خصائص الهطل في هذه المنطقة. تم استخدام خطوط الاتجاه مع اختبار مان كندال ، و كذلك توزع غاما ، إضافة إلى مؤشر تركز الهطل من أجل كشف التغير في كل من كميات الهطل للفصول ، و الموسم الماطر ، و موسمية الهطل. أظهرت النتائج وجود اتجاه واضح نحو تناقص الهطل للموسم الماطر في جميع المحطات وصل إلى30% في بعضها، هذا التناقص ناتج عن تراجع كل من هطولات الربيع و الشتاء ، حيث تراوحت قيمة التناقص لفصل الربيع بين 38.5 و 50.2% ، و لفصل الشتاء بين 14% و38% , و على الرغم من التناقص الحاد في هطولات الموسم الماطر فإن موسمية الهطل عملياً لم تتغير. هذه التغيرات في نماذج الهطل سوف تشكل تحدياً كبيراً لإدارة الموارد المائية ، و الانتاج الزراعي ، و إدارة الغابات.
Changes in precipitation patterns are considered one of most important hazards facing terrestrial ecosystems and water resources worldwide. Monthly rainfall data for six meteorological stations located in the Syrian coastal region were used to study changes in precipitation characteristics during the period 1960-2010. Trends with mann- Kendall Test, Gamma Distribution and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) were applied to detect changes in seasonal and annual precipitation amount in addition to seasonality. Results showed significant negative trends in annual precipitation in all stations up to 30% in some cases, which could be related to the decrease in spring and winter rainfall amounts that ranged between 38.5% to 50.2% in spring and 14% to 38% in winter. Despite significant decrease in annual precipitation, there were no significant trends in seasonality. These changes in precipitation patterns would pose big challenges to water resources management , agricultural production and forests management.
References used
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AKSOY, H.Use of gamma distribution in hydrological analysis. Turkey Journal of Engineering Environmental sciences, Vol. 24, 2000, 419-428
BATES, B. C.; KUNDZEWICZ, Z. W.; WU, S.; and PALUTIKOF, J. P. Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper, International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)Secretariat, Geneva. 2008
Chen, T.; Werf, G. R.; Jeu, R. A. M.; Wang, G.; and Dolman, A. J. A global analysis of the impact of drought on net primary productivity, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sc., Vol. 17, 2013, 3885–3894
DAHM, C. N.; Baker, M. A.; Moore, D. I.; and Thibault, J. R. Coupled biogeochemical and hydrological responses of streams and rivers to drought. Freshwater Biology, Vol. 48, 2003, 1219–1232
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The purpo
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affecting these crops during 1996-2010. The results showed that the effect of
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were to adopt a time series first one from 1991 until 2010,was used a
nd divided by two
equal period stretching from 1991 until 2000, and the second period extends from 2001
until 2010, and so on quarterly and annual level for the amount of rain and the productivity
of wheat, and Study the effect of rainfall in both periods on wheat production.
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