Do you want to publish a course? Click here

Trends of annual and seasonal precipitation times series in some locations of the Syrian Coastal region

اتجاهات التغير في سلاسل الهطولات السنوية والفصلية في بعض مواقع المنطقة الساحلية في سورية

1541   1   41   0 ( 0 )
 Publication date 2014
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




Ask ChatGPT about the research

In this study, trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series for the period of (1971–2006) were analysed for three meteorological stations (Lattakia, Tartous and Safita) located in the coastal region of Syria, by linear regression and Spearman's rho tests. The results showed a decreasing trend of annual precipitation in Lattakia and Tartous stations and increasing trend in Safita station. At the seasonal time scale, a decreasing trends of winter precipitation in Lattakia station and of spring precipitation in all stations were observed. While an increasing trends of winter precipitation in Tartous and Safita stations and of autumn precipitation in all stations were observed. Although, all of these negative and positive linear trends, both at the annual and seasonal time scales are not statistically significant at 5% level, but they can have severe effects on water resources, rivers regimes and success of rain-fed crops in the study areas


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تناولت هذه الدراسة تحليل اتجاهات التغير في سلاسل الهطولات السنوية والفصلية في ثلاث محطات ميتيورولوجية تقع في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية (اللاذقية، طرطوس وصافيتا) خلال الفترة من 1971 إلى 2006 باستخدام اختباري الانحدار الخطي ومعامل سبيرمان لارتباط الرتب. أظهرت النتائج وجود اتجاه نحو تناقص معدلات الهطول السنوي في محطتي اللاذقية وطرطوس، وزيادتها في محطة صافيتا. على المستوى الفصلي، لوحظ تناقص معدلات الهطول في فصل الشتاء بمحطة اللاذقية، وفي فصل الربيع في جميع المحطات، بينما زادت معدلات الهطول في فصل الشتاء بمحطتي طرطوس وصافيتا، وفي فصل الخريف في جميع المحطات. على الرغم من أن هذه الاتجاهات لم تكن معنوية إحصائياً عند مستوى 5%، إلا أنها قد تؤثر بشكل كبير على موارد المياه، ونظم جريان الأنهار، ونجاح المحاصيل البعلية في المنطقة المدروسة.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: على الرغم من أن الدراسة تقدم تحليلاً شاملاً لاتجاهات الهطولات في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية، إلا أنها تعاني من بعض القصور. أولاً، الاعتماد على ثلاث محطات فقط قد لا يكون كافياً لتقديم صورة دقيقة وشاملة عن التغيرات المناخية في المنطقة. ثانياً، عدم معنوية النتائج إحصائياً عند مستوى 5% يثير تساؤلات حول مدى دقة البيانات المستخدمة أو الطرق الإحصائية المتبعة. ثالثاً، الدراسة لم تتناول تأثيرات التغيرات المناخية الأخرى مثل درجات الحرارة والرياح، والتي قد تكون لها تأثيرات مشتركة مع الهطولات على الموارد المائية والزراعية. من الضروري توسيع نطاق البحث ليشمل عدد أكبر من المحطات وفترات زمنية أطول، واستخدام طرق تحليلية متعددة للحصول على نتائج أكثر دقة وشمولية.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي تم دراستها في البحث؟

    الفترة الزمنية التي تم دراستها هي من 1971 إلى 2006.

  2. ما هي المحطات الميتيورولوجية التي تم تحليل بياناتها في الدراسة؟

    المحطات الميتيورولوجية التي تم تحليل بياناتها هي اللاذقية، طرطوس وصافيتا.

  3. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية للدراسة على المستوى السنوي؟

    النتائج الرئيسية على المستوى السنوي أظهرت تناقص معدلات الهطول في محطتي اللاذقية وطرطوس، وزيادتها في محطة صافيتا.

  4. ما هي التأثيرات المحتملة للتغيرات في الهطولات على المنطقة المدروسة؟

    التغيرات في الهطولات قد تؤثر بشكل كبير على موارد المياه، ونظم جريان الأنهار، ونجاح المحاصيل البعلية في المنطقة المدروسة.


References used
DEHEUVELS, P. A. Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test for independence and multivariate samples. Rev. Roum. Math. Pure. A., 26, 213–226, 1981
DÖLL, P.; FLÖRKE, M. Global-scale estimating of diffuse groundwater recharge. Frankfurt Hydrology paper 03, Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt University, 2005
ELASHA, B. O. Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region. UNDP, AHDR, Research Paper Series, 2010, 51
GIORGI, F. Climate Change Hotspots. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L08707, Implementation of Decision 1/CP.10 of the UNFCCC Convention, 2006
IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. PARRY, O.F. CANZIANI, J.P. PALUTIKOF, P.J. VAN DER LINDEN and C.E. HANSON, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007a, 976
rate research

Read More

Changes in precipitation patterns are considered one of most important hazards facing terrestrial ecosystems and water resources worldwide. Monthly rainfall data for six meteorological stations located in the Syrian coastal region were used to study changes in precipitation characteristics during the period 1960-2010. Trends with mann- Kendall Test, Gamma Distribution and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) were applied to detect changes in seasonal and annual precipitation amount in addition to seasonality. Results showed significant negative trends in annual precipitation in all stations up to 30% in some cases, which could be related to the decrease in spring and winter rainfall amounts that ranged between 38.5% to 50.2% in spring and 14% to 38% in winter. Despite significant decrease in annual precipitation, there were no significant trends in seasonality. These changes in precipitation patterns would pose big challenges to water resources management , agricultural production and forests management.
Drought is a recurrent phenomenon and a normal feature of climate. It is one of the major natural hazards that frequently hits Syria, causing significant damages to ecosystems and social–economic environment, especially agricultural areas. The purpo se of current study is to estimate the degree of severity and the frequency of drought at seasonal and annual timescales in the southern region of Syria by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on the rainfall data recorded over (1958-2006) in four climatic stations: Damscus, Khrabo, Dara and El-Sweda. The results showed that there were no significant changes or trends in annual winter and spring rainfall at southern region scale. They also showed its frequent exposure to drought. At annual timescale, Damscus and Khrabo stations were distinguished from the others by extreme drought, and Khrabo by severe drought. The season mostly exposed to drought events was spring, followed by winter and autumn seasons. The absence of the evere drought of Dara winter, and the extreme drought of Damscus and Khrabo autumn were also observed.
This study is concerned with the variations in annual and seasonal surface air temperature in Syria, depending on the data from 12 different meteorological stations in Syria. The analysis of surface temperature trends was performed using Least sq uares (linear regression) and Moving- averaging filters according to Gaussian low- pass filter. Fast Fourier Transformation was used for the analysis of periodicity for the annual mean surface temperature. The results of linear regression showed that the general trend of annual and seasonal temperature in all stations was positive except Latakya. The results of annual and seasonal temperature, fluctuations revealed the existence of important warming period in all stations starting from 1993-1994 for the average of annual and winter temperature while summer, autumn and spring temperatures averages were above the mean during the study period. Periodicities analysis showed that the surface air temperature seems to be affected by solar cycle and quasi- biennial oscillation as well as the El-nino southern oscillation.
This piece of research analyzes the general-index change of annual medium temperatures in some stations of the Syrian Coast during the years 1970-2010, so as to identify the amount of change in temperatures and the effect of such a change on the prob able density that results in annual medium temperatures that are both extreme and unnormal. Results point to an increase in temperatures in all those stations between 0.8 and 2 Celsius degrees. This increase is significant statistically. At the same time, temperatures had not gone lower than their general average in all those stations during the first decade of the 21st century, contributing to an increase of the annual average of temperature during the years 2001-2010 in comparison with the years 1970-2000. Using Natural Distribution Diagram during the years 2001-2010, analysis of the probable density of temperature refers to a great increase in the possibility of having higher extreme temperatures whose value did not exceed 5% over the last three decades. By contrast, lower extreme records had zero probability and got higher than they had been during the three decades of the late century.
comments
Fetching comments Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا