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Trends of annual and seasonal precipitation times series in some locations of the Syrian Coastal region

اتجاهات التغير في سلاسل الهطولات السنوية والفصلية في بعض مواقع المنطقة الساحلية في سورية

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 Publication date 2014
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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In this study, trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series for the period of (1971–2006) were analysed for three meteorological stations (Lattakia, Tartous and Safita) located in the coastal region of Syria, by linear regression and Spearman's rho tests. The results showed a decreasing trend of annual precipitation in Lattakia and Tartous stations and increasing trend in Safita station. At the seasonal time scale, a decreasing trends of winter precipitation in Lattakia station and of spring precipitation in all stations were observed. While an increasing trends of winter precipitation in Tartous and Safita stations and of autumn precipitation in all stations were observed. Although, all of these negative and positive linear trends, both at the annual and seasonal time scales are not statistically significant at 5% level, but they can have severe effects on water resources, rivers regimes and success of rain-fed crops in the study areas


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تناولت هذه الدراسة تحليل اتجاهات التغير في سلاسل الهطولات السنوية والفصلية في ثلاث محطات ميتيورولوجية تقع في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية (اللاذقية، طرطوس وصافيتا) خلال الفترة من 1971 إلى 2006 باستخدام اختباري الانحدار الخطي ومعامل سبيرمان لارتباط الرتب. أظهرت النتائج وجود اتجاه نحو تناقص معدلات الهطول السنوي في محطتي اللاذقية وطرطوس، وزيادتها في محطة صافيتا. على المستوى الفصلي، لوحظ تناقص معدلات الهطول في فصل الشتاء بمحطة اللاذقية، وفي فصل الربيع في جميع المحطات، بينما زادت معدلات الهطول في فصل الشتاء بمحطتي طرطوس وصافيتا، وفي فصل الخريف في جميع المحطات. على الرغم من أن هذه الاتجاهات لم تكن معنوية إحصائياً عند مستوى 5%، إلا أنها قد تؤثر بشكل كبير على موارد المياه، ونظم جريان الأنهار، ونجاح المحاصيل البعلية في المنطقة المدروسة.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: على الرغم من أن الدراسة تقدم تحليلاً شاملاً لاتجاهات الهطولات في المنطقة الساحلية من سورية، إلا أنها تعاني من بعض القصور. أولاً، الاعتماد على ثلاث محطات فقط قد لا يكون كافياً لتقديم صورة دقيقة وشاملة عن التغيرات المناخية في المنطقة. ثانياً، عدم معنوية النتائج إحصائياً عند مستوى 5% يثير تساؤلات حول مدى دقة البيانات المستخدمة أو الطرق الإحصائية المتبعة. ثالثاً، الدراسة لم تتناول تأثيرات التغيرات المناخية الأخرى مثل درجات الحرارة والرياح، والتي قد تكون لها تأثيرات مشتركة مع الهطولات على الموارد المائية والزراعية. من الضروري توسيع نطاق البحث ليشمل عدد أكبر من المحطات وفترات زمنية أطول، واستخدام طرق تحليلية متعددة للحصول على نتائج أكثر دقة وشمولية.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي تم دراستها في البحث؟

    الفترة الزمنية التي تم دراستها هي من 1971 إلى 2006.

  2. ما هي المحطات الميتيورولوجية التي تم تحليل بياناتها في الدراسة؟

    المحطات الميتيورولوجية التي تم تحليل بياناتها هي اللاذقية، طرطوس وصافيتا.

  3. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية للدراسة على المستوى السنوي؟

    النتائج الرئيسية على المستوى السنوي أظهرت تناقص معدلات الهطول في محطتي اللاذقية وطرطوس، وزيادتها في محطة صافيتا.

  4. ما هي التأثيرات المحتملة للتغيرات في الهطولات على المنطقة المدروسة؟

    التغيرات في الهطولات قد تؤثر بشكل كبير على موارد المياه، ونظم جريان الأنهار، ونجاح المحاصيل البعلية في المنطقة المدروسة.


References used
DEHEUVELS, P. A. Kolmogorov-Smirnov type test for independence and multivariate samples. Rev. Roum. Math. Pure. A., 26, 213–226, 1981
DÖLL, P.; FLÖRKE, M. Global-scale estimating of diffuse groundwater recharge. Frankfurt Hydrology paper 03, Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt University, 2005
ELASHA, B. O. Mapping of Climate Change Threats and Human Development Impacts in the Arab Region. UNDP, AHDR, Research Paper Series, 2010, 51
GIORGI, F. Climate Change Hotspots. Geophysical Research Letters 33, L08707, Implementation of Decision 1/CP.10 of the UNFCCC Convention, 2006
IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. PARRY, O.F. CANZIANI, J.P. PALUTIKOF, P.J. VAN DER LINDEN and C.E. HANSON, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2007a, 976
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