هدفت هذه الدراسة الى اختبار العلاقة بين الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر ومحدداته في سورية والجزائر والمغرب والأردن خلال الفترة (1990-2010) وذلك باستخدام تقدير التكامل المشترك وفق الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة المتباطئة (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag) ARDL.
أشارت الدراسة إلى أن نموذج وسط المجموعة المدمجةPMG هو النموذج المناسب؛ حيث توصل النموذج إلى وجود علاقة معنوية طويلة الأجل بين المتغيرات المستقلة (ما عدا سعر الصرف) والاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر في الدول المختارة؛ وبالتالي يجب التركيز على أهمية المحددات, واتخاذ خطوات لتطوير السياسات التي تشجع الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر؛ ويمكن أن تشمل هذه التدابير: تطوير حجم السوق, وجعل القوانين أكثر جاذبية للتجارة الدولية, بالإضافة الى ذلك يمكن اتخاذ خطوات لإبقاء معدلات التضخم تحت السيطرة.
This study examines the relationship between foreign direct investment and its determinants in Syria, Algeria, Morocco and Jordan during the period (1990-2010), using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag ARDL.
The results of the study indicate that the PMG model is the appropriate model, as the model concluded that there is a significant long-term relationship between the independent variables (except for the exchange rate) and foreign direct investment in the study countries, and therefore it is necessary to focus on the importance of determinants and take steps to develop policies that Encourages foreign direct investment. These measures can include developing market size and making laws more attractive to international trade. In addition, steps can be taken to keep inflation rates under control.
References used
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Chu, J. F., & Sek, S. K. (2014). Investigating the relationship between inflation and growth: Evidence from panel ARDL models. InAIP Conference Proceedings.1605(1), 943-948. American Institute of Physics.
Hadjira, M & Mohamed, B. (2020). The Effect of the Public Budget Deficit on the Exchange Rate inAlgeriaAn Econometric Study Using ARDL Approach from 2003-2018.Strategy and Development Magazine, 10(5), 71-88
the role of international terrorism on investment movement in syria and Jordan (2001-
2015), The study sought to solve the research problem related to the relationship between
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growth of the economies of developing countries since the eighties of the last century,
taking advantage of the rapid spread of information and communication tech
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Syria during the period 1990 to 2011. We employed Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model
to study the long-term relationship between the real exchange rate and the f
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