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Suitability of Z-score index to measure financial stability of Syrian Traditional Private Banks

مدى ملائمة مؤشر Z-score لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية

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 Publication date 2016
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This paper aimed to study The suitability of (Z-score) index to measure banking financial stability of Syrian Private Traditional Banks, To achieve this purpose, the researcher built a model during the period from Q1-2010 to Q4-2014,using Cross-Sectional series of Banking financial performance variables and analyzing it using Panel Data Analyze. The main results are:  The suitability of (Z-Score) index to measure financial stability of Syrian Traditional Private Banks.  The financial stability of all Syrian Traditional Private Banks.  The significant positive relation between Book to market value(BM), Capital Adequacy (Adec) and financial stability index (Z-Score).  The significant negative relation between Quality of loan portfolio (QUAL), Deposit employment (NET/DEP) and financial stability index (Z-Score).  The absence of significant relation between(Z-Score) and banking performance ratios: Cover ratio(COV), bank's Liquidity (LIQ), and profitability measured by the ratio of Adjusted Return on Equity (Roe$).


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تقييم مدى ملائمة مؤشر Z-score لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية. لتحقيق هذا الهدف، قامت الباحثة ببناء نموذج انحدار متعدد باستخدام بيانات زمنية مقطعية للفترة من الربع الأول لعام 2010 حتى الربع الرابع لعام 2014. توصلت الدراسة إلى أن مؤشر Z-score ملائم لقياس الاستقرار المالي لهذه المصارف، حيث أظهرت النتائج أن جميع المصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية تتمتع بالاستقرار المالي. كما أظهرت الدراسة وجود علاقة طردية معنوية بين مؤشر Z-score وكل من القيمة الدفترية للسهم نسبة لقيمته السوقية وكفاية رأس المال المصرفي، وعلاقة عكسية معنوية بين مؤشر Z-score وكل من جودة المحفظة المصرفية ونسبة توظيف الودائع. في المقابل، لم تجد الدراسة علاقة معنوية بين مؤشر Z-score وكل من معدل التغطية، نسبة السيولة، والربحية الممثلة بنسبة العائد على حقوق الملكية المعدل بأرباح/خسائر القطع البنيوي. بناءً على هذه النتائج، توصي الدراسة بزيادة رؤوس أموال المصارف وتحسين معدل التغطية لتقليل المخاطر التشغيلية والائتمانية.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر الدراسة مهمة في سياقها الزمني والمكاني، حيث تقدم نموذجاً لقياس الاستقرار المالي في ظل الظروف الاقتصادية الصعبة التي تمر بها سوريا. ومع ذلك، يمكن توجيه بعض الانتقادات البناءة للدراسة. أولاً، اقتصرت الدراسة على المصارف الخاصة التقليدية دون المصارف الإسلامية، مما قد يقلل من شمولية النتائج. ثانياً، لم تتناول الدراسة تأثير المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية مثل تغير سعر الصرف ومعدل التضخم، والتي قد تكون لها تأثيرات كبيرة على الاستقرار المالي للمصارف. ثالثاً، كان من الممكن تعزيز الدراسة بمزيد من التحليل النوعي لفهم الأسباب الكامنة وراء العلاقات المكتشفة بين المتغيرات. وأخيراً، يمكن أن تكون الفترة الزمنية المدروسة قصيرة نسبياً لتقديم استنتاجات نهائية حول الاستقرار المالي.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة؟

    الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة هو تقييم مدى ملائمة مؤشر Z-score لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية.

  2. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي شملتها الدراسة؟

    شملت الدراسة الفترة الزمنية من الربع الأول لعام 2010 حتى الربع الرابع لعام 2014.

  3. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصلت إليها الدراسة؟

    توصلت الدراسة إلى أن مؤشر Z-score ملائم لقياس الاستقرار المالي للمصارف السورية الخاصة التقليدية، وأن جميع المصارف المدروسة تتمتع بالاستقرار المالي. كما أظهرت وجود علاقات طردية وعكسية بين مؤشر Z-score وبعض المتغيرات المالية.

  4. ما هي التوصيات التي قدمتها الدراسة بناءً على النتائج؟

    أوصت الدراسة بزيادة رؤوس أموال المصارف وتحسين معدل التغطية لتقليل المخاطر التشغيلية والائتمانية، بالإضافة إلى إعادة إجراء البحث خارج الفترة الزمنية المدروسة وتضمين المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية.


References used
Baltagi B. H, Econometric analysis of panel data, 2nd edition, New York: John Wiley & Sons,2000,P50
Boyd, J., De Nicolo, G, Jalal, A, Bank risk-taking and competition: new theory and new evidence IMF Working Paper, N.6, 2006, p20-42
Curry, Elmer, Fissel, Can the equity market help predict bank failure?, Working Paper, FDIC, 2004.P17
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