This research aims to identify the impact of monetary policies adopted by the Central
Bank of Syria on the purchasing value of the Syrian pound. According to scientific
principles based on reading the reality of the Syrian economy, and the correspo
nding
policies and procedures to this fact, and for this reason the study depended on the tables
and curves and economic analysis and also the extent of the impact of those policies on
low-income social strata. Especially in the current crisis due to the low exchange rate of
the Syrian pound against foreign currencies and high inflation rate in an unprecedented
way. In addition to the study of the impact the economical changes which affect the value
of the Syrian pound that could be out of control of the Central Bank of Syria . the study
found the subjective factor was not at the level required to contain the objective factor, that
is, those policies and procedures were not at the required level, or were limited to one tool
of monetary policy tools and therefore did not work to stabilize the national currency, and
thus prices stability, that is the ultimate purpose of monetary policy at the Central Bank of
Syria.
This study is concerned in the long relation between monetary policy variable and
Damascus stock exchange (DSE) index,
In general, monetary policy transmission can affect the markets, so the stock market
also effected by that, and this study is in
terested in this relation, so it start by made
theoretical introduction about how can monetary variables effect the stock market index,
then it follow the statistical methodology by use Autoregressive-Distributed Lag model
(ARDL) to estimate the relation between independents variables which are money supply
M1,M2,exchange rate EX, interest rate I, inflation INF, and dependent variables which is
DSE index (M_I)
The result, by using the Unrestricted error correction model (UECM) shows that
there is positive relation in short and long term between money supply (M1) and DSE
index, but it was and negative one in short term between M2 and DSE index, and became a
positive in long term, and the relation was negative between inflation and DSE index in
short and long term. There was a negative one with exchange rate in short and long term,
and also negative one with interest rate.
As conclusion, it should be necessary to improve the behavior of monetary policy to
control all this variable in the way that made it has positive effects on DSE index.
Syria suffers from an unfair war against it for more than four years, involving the
forces of old and new Zionist- US colonialism and the Persian Gulf States, Turkey and
other allied states. This war affected all aspects on the life of the Syrian c
ommunity, but I
will focus in the research on the economic impact, particularly on the exchange rate of
monetary policy and fiscal policy too. I will focus on the exchange rate as it reflects the
price of one currency against the other currency or currencies, and I used the dollar
exchange rate because it is the most commonly used in Syrian economic transactions, The
Syrian pound is linked with the us dollar in 1947 under law No.304/on 2 February 1947
and identified rate of the Syrian pound equivalent to (0, 405513) grams of gold, i.e. (45,6)
cents.The importance of exchange rate was revealed with the growing expansion of
international commercial exchanges of goods and services, financial transactions, and in
the digital language how many of Syrian pounds shall be sold or abandoned to obtain one
unit of another currency or USD, for example, so we can notice the importance of
exchange rate stability, and therefore one of the most important responsibilities of the
monetary policy in Central Bank, is to create an exchange rate that helps to boost economic
activity on the macro and micro level and contribute to increase the economic power.
The central bank is a sovereign institution that plays a pivotal and active role in the banking and financial system, therefore the related studies have special importance. This study aims to clear the concept of profitability and asset and liability
management at the central banks because of the mysterious which surround them, especially in light of the general objectives that the central banks pursue to achieve. The growing interest in the subject of profitability due to its role in strengthening the financial position of the central bank and strengthen its ability to carry out its functions effectively, as well as to indicate the sources of income of the central banks, and identify the strategies followed by the central banks to manage its assets and liabilities, and their effect on profitability.
In order to achieve these objectives, the researcher, after the presentation of the theoretical framework for the study, conduct an analytical study of the financial statements contained in the published reports of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, during the period from 1/7/2005 to 30/6/2011, in order to clarify the theoretical framework for the study, and its compatibility with practice. Thus, the researcher conducting statistical test to show the effect of changes in the size of central bank assets and liabilities on a net income of the Central bank, has been using the statistical program SPSS 18 to reach the results of this test.
The study concluded that the changes in the sizes of the assets and liabilities of the central bank does not affect its net income, in the other words that we can't predict the profitability of central bank depending on the size of its assets or liabilities. The lack of profit maximization as a key target does not mean that Central does not seek through its management of its assets and liabilities for profit, but it means that his main goal is to achieve the objectives of monetary policy and then make a profit. Seiniorage is the most important sources of income of the central and most stable, while the most important function of the Central bank which is formulating monetary policy do not generate any revenue. In addition to that there are many factors that threaten central bank's profitability such as dollarization, electronic money and low inflation levels.
Central Bank
profitability
الربحية
الربح
السياسة النقدية
monetary policy
Seiniorage
asset and liability management
profit
income of the central banks
central bank financial strength
central bank losses
عوائد الإصدار النقدي
البنك المركزي
إدارة الأصول والخصوم
دخل البنك المركزي
القوة المالية للبنك المركزي
خسائر البنك المركزي
المزيد..
هذا البحث حصيلة ما قدمته الدراسات النقدية المعاصرة من مفاهيم و نتائج جديدة حول
طبيعة النقد. لأن تتبع تطور مفهوم النقد يزودنا بإدراك أعمق لمراحل تطور النظرية
النقدية و طرق تحليلها و انعكاس نتائج هذا التطور و عطاءاته عبر تياراته البارزة على
الأهداف
النهائية و الوسيطة للسياسة النقدية و اختيار أدواتها الفاعلة.
و نظرًا لأن مفهوم الطلب على النقد بات منذ بدايات التطور المعاصر للنظرية النقدية من
المفاهيم الأساسية للتحليل النقدي، بل و كاد في بعض مراحل هذا التطور يستوعب منفردًا
معظم أبعاد هذه النظرية، فإننا سنخصص الفصل الثاني من هذا البحث لتحليل محددات
هذا الطلب من خلال الصيغ الحديثة لتابع الطلب على النقد التي انتهت إليها المدارس
و التيارات الفكرة البارزة التي تتكامل حينًا و تتعارض أحيانًا؛ و التي تشكل الموضوع
المسيطر في الدراسات النقدية.