تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى المقارنة بين نماذج Arima وطريقة التمهيد الأسي بالتنبؤ في السلاسل الزمنية، كما نسلط الضوء على مفاهيم الأساسية الخاصة بمنهجية ARIMA وطريقة التمهيد الأسي.
ركزت الدراسة على التنبؤ بالسلاسل الزمنية ذات النطاق الضيق بين نقطة وأخرى ذات نطاق واسع بالاضافة إلى استخدام أطوال مختلفة من فترات التنبؤ وقد تم استخدام معيار RMSE للمقارنة بين الطريقتين.
The study aims at comparing ARIMA models and the exponential
smoothing method in forecasting. This study also highlights the special
and basic concepts of ARIMA model and the exponential smoothing
method.
The comparison focuses on the ability of both methods to forecast
the time series with a narrow range of one point to another and the time
series with a long range of one point to another, and also on the different
lengths of the forecasting periods. Currency exchange rates of Shekel to
American dollar were used to make this comparison in the period
between 25/1/2010 to 22/10/2016. In addition, weekly gold prices were
considered in the period between 10/1/2010 to 23/10/2016. RMSE
standard was used in order to compare between both methods. In this
study, the researcher came up with the conclusion that ARIMA models
give a better forecasting for the time series with a long range of one point
to another and for long term forecasting, but cannot produce a better
forecasting for time series with a narrow range of one point to another as
in currency exchange prices.
On the contrary, exponential smoothing method can give better
forecasting for Exchange Rates that has a narrow range of one point to
another for its time series, while it cannot give better forecasting for long
term forecasting periods
References used
(Makridakis, 1998): "Forecasting :Methods and Applications" , 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons New York U.S.A.
حظيت نمذجة وتوقع السلاسل الزمنية بأهمية كبيرة في العديد من المجالات التطبيقية كالتنبؤ بالطقس وأسعار العملات ومعدلات استهلاك الوقود والكهرباء، إن توقع السلاسل الزمنية من شأنه أن يزود المنظمات والشركات بالمعلومات الضرورية لاتخاذ القرارات الهامة، وبسبب
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