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Register a new userمدى انعكاس سعر الصرف الحقيقي لليرة السورية على التوازن الاقتصادي الكلي دراسة قياسية (1990-2010)
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Damascus University رسالة ماجستير
Publication date
2016
fields
Economy
and research's language is
العربية
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مدى انعكاس سعر الصرف الحقيقي لليرة السورية على التوازن الاقتصادي الكلي - دراسة قياسية ( 1990-2010 )
No English abstract
References used
الياس نجمة , المسألة الاقتصادية في سورية جمعية العلوم الاقتصادية
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The purpose of this research is to study the determinants of the real exchange rate in
Syria during the period 1990 to 2011. We employed Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model
to study the long-term relationship between the real exchange rate and the f
actors affecting
it. Also we applied the Granger causality test to investigate the direction of the relationship
between these variables. In addition, the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and the
Variance Decomposition to determine thecontribution of thesedeterminantsin the
interpretation ofthe variance oftherealexchangerateof the Syrian pound. Eight possible
determinants have been included in the empirical model: Foreign direct
investment,realGDPgrowthrate,money supply, government consumption, trade
openness,real interest rate, terms of trade, political stability indictor.
The variables that have been found to have a long run relationship with the real
exchange rate are: theforeign direct investment, real GDP growth rate and trade
openness.EspeciallyForeign direct investment and Real GDP growth rate which have the
greatest effect on the real exchange rate, while the trade openness had the least effect on
the real exchange rate in Syria.Leavingthe other determinants with insignificant effect on
real exchange rate in Syria.
This study aims to identify the factors affecting the velocity of
money in Syria during the period ( 1990-2010) based on the study
and review of the monetary theories, and the analysis of some
empirical studies that examined the velocity of money
and its
relation to macroeconomic variables. In addition to an
econometric study focused on the relationship between the
velocity of money in its narrow sense (M1) with the rate of
inflation, per capita GDP, real exchange rate, financial evolution,
interest rate and political instability, using ARDL methodology to
test joint integration.
Syria suffers from an unfair war against it for more than four years, involving the
forces of old and new Zionist- US colonialism and the Persian Gulf States, Turkey and
other allied states. This war affected all aspects on the life of the Syrian c
ommunity, but I
will focus in the research on the economic impact, particularly on the exchange rate of
monetary policy and fiscal policy too. I will focus on the exchange rate as it reflects the
price of one currency against the other currency or currencies, and I used the dollar
exchange rate because it is the most commonly used in Syrian economic transactions, The
Syrian pound is linked with the us dollar in 1947 under law No.304/on 2 February 1947
and identified rate of the Syrian pound equivalent to (0, 405513) grams of gold, i.e. (45,6)
cents.The importance of exchange rate was revealed with the growing expansion of
international commercial exchanges of goods and services, financial transactions, and in
the digital language how many of Syrian pounds shall be sold or abandoned to obtain one
unit of another currency or USD, for example, so we can notice the importance of
exchange rate stability, and therefore one of the most important responsibilities of the
monetary policy in Central Bank, is to create an exchange rate that helps to boost economic
activity on the macro and micro level and contribute to increase the economic power.
The objective of this study was to determine the factors
affecting the weighted interest rate margin in the traditional
commercial banking sector within the Syrian banking industry. To
achieve this, the researcher collected the necessary data on t
he
commercial banks listed in Damascus Securities exchange for the
period 2008-2014 and analyzed them statistically. The behavior of
a depended variable that reflect the weighted average of interest
rate margin to deposits and credit facilities (loans, overdraft) was
examined. Also the independent variables that reflect credit risk,
financing risk and some economic factors were examined. The
independent variables are the net exposures to direct credit risk,
the credit default rate, ratio of financial leverage and the exchange
rate of the Syrian Pound against the US Dollar. The multiple linear
regression models of the studied variables were used.
سعر الصرف
هامش سعر الفائدة المرجح
صافي التعرضات لمخاطر التسهيلات الائتمانية المباشرة
معدل التعثر الائتماني
نسبة الرفع المالي
weighted interest rate margin
net exposures to direct credit risk
the credit default rate
ratio of financial leverage
exchange rate of the Syrian Pound against the US Dollar
المزيد..
This research aims to identify the impact of monetary policies adopted by the Central
Bank of Syria on the purchasing value of the Syrian pound. According to scientific
principles based on reading the reality of the Syrian economy, and the correspo
nding
policies and procedures to this fact, and for this reason the study depended on the tables
and curves and economic analysis and also the extent of the impact of those policies on
low-income social strata. Especially in the current crisis due to the low exchange rate of
the Syrian pound against foreign currencies and high inflation rate in an unprecedented
way. In addition to the study of the impact the economical changes which affect the value
of the Syrian pound that could be out of control of the Central Bank of Syria . the study
found the subjective factor was not at the level required to contain the objective factor, that
is, those policies and procedures were not at the required level, or were limited to one tool
of monetary policy tools and therefore did not work to stabilize the national currency, and
thus prices stability, that is the ultimate purpose of monetary policy at the Central Bank of
Syria.
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