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Register a new userForecasting Of Monthly Evaporation In Hama Using Artificial Neural Network
نموذج شبكة عصبية صنعيَّة للتنبؤ بالتبخر الشهري في منطقة حماه
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ماريا عباس( باحث )
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التبخر هو أحد العناصر الأساسية للدورة الهيدرولوجية و ضروري للعديد من الدراسات مثل الموازنة المائية, تصميم أنظمة الري و إدارة الموارد المائية, و يتطلب تقديره معرفة العديد من العناصر المناخية. على الرغم من أن هناك صيغاً تجريبيَّةً متوفرةً لتقدير التبخر, و لكن أداء هذه الصيغ غير دقيق بسبب الطبيعة المعقدة لعملية التبخر. لذلك فإن هذا البحث يهدف لوضع نموذج شبكة عصبية صنعيَّة للتنبؤ بالتبخر الشهري في منطقة حماه باستخدام ثلاثة عناصر مناخية هي درجة الحرارة, الرطوبة النسبية و سرعة الرياح. من أجل ذلك فقد بُني النموذج باستخدام مكتبة nntool-box إحدى أدوات الـ MATLAB. استُخدمت الشبكة العصبية الصنعيَّة ذات التغذية الأمامية و الانتشار العكسي للخطأ بطبقة خفية واحدة لبناء النموذج. و تم تقييم شبكات مختلفة بعدد مختلف من العصبونات و بتغيير دوال التفعيل المستخدمة في كل طبقة. و استُخدم جذر متوسط مربع الخطأ (RMSE) لتقييم دقة النموذج المُقترح. و قد بينت الدراسة أن الشبكة العصبية الصنعيَّة ذات الهيكلية (3-14-1) هي الأفضل للتنبؤ بالتبخر في منطقة حماه حيث كانت قيمة RMSE تساوي (21.5mm/month) و قيمة R2 مساوية (0.97). توصي الدراسة باستخدام أنواع أخرى من الشبكات العصبية لتقدير التبخر.
The evaporation is one of the basic components of the hydrologic cycle and it is essential for studies such as water balance, irrigation system design and water resource management, and it requires knowledge of many climatic variables. Although, there are many empirical formulas available for evaporation estimate, but their performances are not all satisfactory due to the complicated nature of the evaporation process. Accordingly, this paper is an attempt to assess the potential and usefulness of ANN based modeling for evaporation prediction from HAMA by using temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity. The mathematical model was built by the (nntool-box), which is one of the MATLAB tools. The feed forward back propagation network with one hidden layer has been utilised to construct the model. Different networks with different number of neurons were evaluated. Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) was employed to evaluate the accuracy of the proposed model. The study shows that ANN (3-14-1) was the best model with RMSE (21.5mm/month) and R2 (0.97). This study suggests using other types of neural networks for estimation of evaporation
References used
DALKILIC, Y.; OKKAN, U. and BAYKAN, N. Comparison of Different Ann Approaches in Daily Pan Evaporation Prediction. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, Vol. 6, 2014, 319-326
ESLAMIAN, S. S.; GOHARI, S. A.; BIABANAKI, M. and MALEKIAN, R. Estimation of Monthly Pan Evaporation Using Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines. Journal of Applied Sciences, Vol. 8, 2008, 3497-3502
GOAL, A. ANN Based Modeling for Prediction of Evaporation in Reservoirs. Vol. 22, No. 4, November, 2009, 351-358
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Evaporation forms one of the hydrology cycle elements that it's hard to measure its actual amounts in the field conditions, so it’s estimated by calculations of experimental relations, which depend on climatic elements data. So the research goal is t
o build a mathematical model to estimate monthly evaporation amount in plain area of Syrian Coast, using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and depending on dry air temperature, and produce comparison study between the results of network and other models. The mathematical model was built by the (NN-tool box), which is one of the v tools. A multilayer ANN architecture of error Back-propagation algorithm was built. The suitable training algorithms, number of hidden layers, number of neurons in each hidden layer, were determined.
The results showed that the ANN (1-9-1) was the best model with MSE of 0.0032 for validation group, using Transfer Function Logsigmoid and Linear in hidden and output layers, respectively.
A comparison model for the results obtained from the proposed ANN with EVANOV model by using SIMULINK technique was developed. This indicated that the ANN using temperature only gives results more accurate than EVANOV equation in determining evaporation.
This study includes the possibility of using Artificial neural
networks (ANNs) with back-propagation algorithm in a short-term
prediction of water level in Qattinah Lake. The data used are the
water level data in the lake and rainfall data for the period from
1/5/2007 to 28/2/2005. 2009).
Accurate estimating and predicting of hydrological phenomena plays an influential role in the development and management of water resources, preparing of future plans according to different scenarios of climate changes. Evapotranspiration is one of t
he major meteorological components of the hydrologic cycle and from the most complex of them, and the accurate prediction of this parameter is very important for many water resources applications.
So, this research goals to prediction of monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET0) at Homs meteostation, in the middle of Syrian Arab Republic, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS), depending on available climatic data, and comparision between the results of these models.
The used data contained 347 monthly values of Air Temperature (T), Relative Humidity (RH), Wind Speed (WS) and Sunshine Hours (SS) (from October 1974 to December 2004). The monthly reference evapotranspiration data were estimated by the Penman Monteith method, which is the proposed method by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) as the standard method for the estimation of ET0, and used as outputs of the models.
The results of this study showed that feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Networks (FFBP-ANNs) pridected successfully the monthly ET0 using climatic data, with low values of root mean square errors (RMSE), and high values of correlation coefficients (R), and showed that the using of the monthly index as an additional input, improves the accurate of prediction of the artificial neural networks models.
Also, the results showed good ability of Fuzzy Inference Models (FIS) in predicting of monthly reference evapotranspiration. Sunshine hours are the most influential single parameter for ET0 prediction (R= 97.71%, RMSE = 18.08 mm/month) during the test period, sunshine hours and wind speed are the most influential optimal combination of two parameters
(R= 98.55%, RMSE = 12.49 mm/month) during the test period.
The results showed high reliability for each of the artificial neural networks and fuzzy inference system with a little preference for artificial neural networks which can add the monthly index in the input layer, and there for improve the presicion of predictions.
This study recommends the using of artificial intelligence techniques in modeling of complex and nonlinear phenomena which related of water resources.
To transcribe spoken language to written medium, most alphabets enable an unambiguous sound-to-letter rule. However, some writing systems have distanced themselves from this simple concept and little work exists in Natural Language Processing (NLP) o
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Evapotranspiration forms one of the hydrology cycle elements that it's hard to
measure its actual amounts in the field conditions, so it’s estimated by calculations of
experimental relations that depend on climatic elements data. These estimations
include
different errors because of approximation processes. The research goals to accurate
estimation of the monthly reference evapotranspiration amount in Safita area (on the east
coast of the Mediterranean Sea), and the research depends on the technique of Artificial
Neural Network (ANN), and the mathematical model was built by the
(nftool), which is one of the Matlab tools, depending on monthly air temperature and
relative humidity data which were taken from Safita meteorological station, and the data of
monthly pan evaporation (Class A pan) has been used, after modifying its results, for the
purpose of checking the performance accuracy of the network, by using Simulink
technique, which is existing in Matlab Programs Package. The results of the research
verify that a multi-layer ANN of error Back-propagation algorithm gives a good result in
estimating monthly reference Evapo-transpiration for the used data group.
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