يشكّل التبخر-نتح أحد عناصر الدورة الهيدرولوجية، الذي يصعب قياس كمياته الفعلية في الشروط الحقلية، لذلك يجري تقديره انطلاقاً من علاقات تجريبية تعتمد على بيانات عناصر المناخ، و تتضمن تلك التقديرات أخطاء متنوّعة بسبب عمليات التقريب. و يهدف البحث إلى تقدير دقيق لكمية التبخر الشهري في منطقة صافيتا, و يعتمد البحث على تقانة الشبكة العصبية الصنعية، حيث بُني الأنموذج الرياضي باستخدام Neural Fitting Tool (nftool) إحدى أدوات الماتلاب، و اعتمد الأنموذج على البيانات الشهرية لدرجة حرارة الهواء و الرطوبة النسبية في محطة صافيتا، كما استُخدِمت بيانات التبخر الشهري من حوض التبخر الأميركي صنف A لغرض التحقق من صحة أداء الشبكة، بعد تحويل الأنموذج إلى شكل قالب جاهز باستخدام تقانة Simulink المتاحة في حزمة برمجيات الماتلاب.
أثبتت نتائج الدراسة أنَّ الشبكة العصبية الصنعيَّة متعددة الطبقات، و ذات الانتشار العكسي للخطأ تعطي نتائج جيدة في تقويم التبخر الشهري، اعتماداً على مجموعة البيانات المستخدَمة.
Evapotranspiration forms one of the hydrology cycle elements that it's hard to
measure its actual amounts in the field conditions, so it’s estimated by calculations of
experimental relations that depend on climatic elements data. These estimations include
different errors because of approximation processes. The research goals to accurate
estimation of the monthly reference evapotranspiration amount in Safita area (on the east
coast of the Mediterranean Sea), and the research depends on the technique of Artificial
Neural Network (ANN), and the mathematical model was built by the
(nftool), which is one of the Matlab tools, depending on monthly air temperature and
relative humidity data which were taken from Safita meteorological station, and the data of
monthly pan evaporation (Class A pan) has been used, after modifying its results, for the
purpose of checking the performance accuracy of the network, by using Simulink
technique, which is existing in Matlab Programs Package. The results of the research
verify that a multi-layer ANN of error Back-propagation algorithm gives a good result in
estimating monthly reference Evapo-transpiration for the used data group.
References used
DOORENBOS, J.; PRUITT, W.O. GuideLines for Predicting Crop Water Requirement. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). N .24,1977,156
RAGHUWANSHI, N.S.; WALLENDER, W.W. Converting from pan Evaporation to Evapotranspiration. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering. Vol. 124, 1998, 275-277
FAO Corporate Document Repository. Crop Evapotranspiration. Natural Resources Management and environment Department, 2008
Accurate estimating and predicting of hydrological phenomena plays an influential role in the development and management of water resources, preparing of future plans according to different scenarios of climate changes. Evapotranspiration is one of t
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hydrologic cycle, and the accurate prediction of this parameter is
very important for many water resources applications. Thus, the
aim of this study is prediction of monthly reference
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fuzzy inference system (FIS).
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