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Register a new userEffectiveness of bilateral trade between Syria and the Arab Gulf Cooperation Council in the framework of the Great Arab Free Trade Area within the period (1998-2009)
فاعلية التجارة البينية بين سورية و دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي العربي في إطار منطقة التجارة الحرة العربية الكبرى خلال الفترة (1998-2009)
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إن وضع الدول العربية المنضمة إلى منطقة التجارة الحرة العربية الكبرى بعد مرور عدة سنوات للتحرير الكامل للرسوم و القيود الجمركية فيما بينهم, يتطلب ايلاء أهمية كبرى لقياس درجة الفاعلية التجارية البينية فيما بين هذه الدول, لمعرفة الوضع الحقيقي لطبيعة و فعالية التجارة البينية فيما بينهم, خاصة و أن الأرقام المتوفرة حول هذا الأمر غالباً ما تؤدي إلى نتائج مضللة. بناءً على ما تقدم جاء بحثنا هذا لدراسة التبادل التجاري بين سورية و دول مجلس التعاون الخليجي العربي باعتبار هذه الدول الأهم في إطار منطقة التجارة الحرة العربية الكبرى, و قياس درجة الفعالية التجارية البينية فيما بينهم, بما يعكس مدى الشمولية في العلاقات التجارية و انتشارها بين هذه الدول, و تجاوز ما تفرزه الأرقام المضللة عن طبيعة التجارة البينية فيما بينهم.
The current situation of the Arab countries acceding to the Great Arab Free Trade Area after several years to complete liberalization of fees and customs restrictions between them, requires paying great attention to measuring the effectiveness of commercial interfaces between these states and to know the real situation of the nature and effectiveness of intra-trade among themselves, especially since the figures available about this often lead to misleading results. Based on the above-mentioned discussion comes the necessity this study of trade exchange between Syria and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Arab, as these countries are the most important in the context of the Great Arab Free Trade Area. This study also focuses on measuring the effectiveness of commercial interfaces between them, reflecting the extent of inclusiveness in trade relations and their spread between these countries, exceeding the misleading figures about the nature of intra-trade among these countries.
References used
غرفة تجارة دمشق, عام 1999, الاتفاقيات التجارية بين سورية و الدول العربية ص. 394.
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This paper aims at presenting an analysis of the inter-Arab trade
situation in order to assess the role of the implementation of
GAFTA in activating and developing it. Moreover, the research
will attempt to specify some challenges and restrictions
that face
the development of inter-Arab trade in the region.
This research showed the experience of the actual application of the Free Trade Area of the Greater Arab during the period between 1998- 2005. There are many obstacles that hinder the progress of trade exchanges Arabic, and prevent the upgrading by t
he economic relations between the Arab states, and perhaps the most prominent obstacles that emptied agreement region of its content the detailed rules of origin for Arab goods.
Accordingly, this research aims to shed light on the rules of origin as an instrument of trade policy instruments used in trade agreements, and as a means to cope with phenomenon of infiltration random goods of non-Arab to the inside of the Member states of the Convention on the region, as it demonstrates this research what these rules and their importance after addressing the importance of trade area Greater Arab Free for the Arab countries.
The Theme Of this research mainly focuses on the effects of foreign trade liberalization on the trade balance for agricultural sector in Syria , after conducting an analytical study of the reality of this sector . And that’s due to its importance and
its Stature in the national economy, and its effective role in production , labor , and drive economic growth , especially that the Syrian economy is classified in the agricultural economies. As the new economic trend, and regional conventions between Syria and other parties , and its accompanying procedures followed in order to cope with the foreign trade liberalization data and open markets , may significantly effected the agricultural sector.
Where although it contributed to increase the size and rate of growth of Syrian agricultural trade, but this increase is caused by an increase in the volume of agricultural imports that exceeded the volume of agricultural exportrs, and that led to a defict in its balance, after it has achieved larg surpluses for long period.
It was concluded from the study, that the process of foreign trade liberalization carried in some of its aspects, negative effects on the Syrian agricultural sector, inparticular the defict of its trare balance, instead of being
great motivation , to take its pioneering role in economy.
The aim of this study was to apply Box- Jenkins methodology represented by ARIMA models, to forecast some indicators of foreign trade in Syria, and to know if these models are effective in forecasting. The main results were: -The time series for the
indicator of trade exposure in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.-The time series for the indicator of import- export covering in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences. - ARIMA (1,1,1) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of trade exposure, and it is effective model. - ARIMA (2,1,0) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of import- export covering, and it is effective model.
Fruits' trading is considered one of the most important agricultural trades
in Syria, due to its big incomings and its role in supporting the national
economy. GAFTA members are representing the biggest partner for Syria in
this trade.
The aim of
this research was to assess the impact of GAFA on the exports
and imports of orange and apple which are considered the most important
Syrian fruits, by using dummy variables through the time series of (1994 -
2010). The research showed that GAFTA had no significant impact on any of
the studied commodities through the transitional phase (1998-2004), while it
had a positive significant effect on both of the exports and imports of these
commodities after the full implementation stage (2005-2010). Significant
differences were found between the three stages (before- during- after) GAFTA
implementation. after implementation stage showed significant differences
comparing to the other stages, in which the exports and imports of both orange
and apple had increased in this stage comparing to the previous ones by
quantity and value.
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