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Register a new userThe Effect of Foreign Trade Liberalization on the Trade Balance of Agricultural Sector in Syria During the Period (2001 – 2010)
أثر تحرير التجارة الخارجية على الميزان التجاري للقطاع الزراعي في سورية خلال الفترة الممتدة بين عامي (2001-2010)
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يتمحور موضوع البحث بشكل أساسي حول آثار عملية تحرير التجارة الخارجية على الميزان التجاري للقطاع الزراعي في سورية، بعد إجراء دراسة تحليلية لواقع هذا القطاع، و ذلك نظراً لأهميته و مكانته في الاقتصاد الوطني، و لدوره الفعال في الإنتاج و التشغيل و دفع عجلة النمو الاقتصادي، سيما أن الاقتصاد السوري يصنف من الاقتصاديات الزراعية بالدرجة الأولى. فقد اتخذت التوجهات الاقتصادية الجديدة و الاتفاقيات الإقليمية و الدولية بين سورية و الأطراف المتعاقد معها، إجراءات عديدة لتتماشى مع معطيات تحرير التجارة الخارجية و فتح الأسواق، مما أثر بشكل كبير على القطاع الزراعي، فعلى الرغم من أنها أسهمت إلى حد كبير في زيادة حجم و معدل نمو التجارة الزراعية السورية، إلا أن هذه الزيادة قد نجمت زيادة حجم المستوردات الزراعية بشكل فاق حجم الصادرات الزراعية، مما أوقع الميزان التجاري للقطاع الزراعي في حالة عجز، بعد أن حقق فوائض كبيرة لفترات طويلة سابقة. و قد استنتج من الدراسة أن عملية تحرير التجارة الخارجية في سورية قد حملت في بعض جوانبها آثاراً سلبية على القطاع الزراعي تجلت في عجز ميزانه التجاري، بدلاً من أن تكون حافزاً و دافعاً له ليأخذ دوره الريادي في الاقتصاد الوطني.
The Theme Of this research mainly focuses on the effects of foreign trade liberalization on the trade balance for agricultural sector in Syria , after conducting an analytical study of the reality of this sector . And that’s due to its importance and its Stature in the national economy, and its effective role in production , labor , and drive economic growth , especially that the Syrian economy is classified in the agricultural economies. As the new economic trend, and regional conventions between Syria and other parties , and its accompanying procedures followed in order to cope with the foreign trade liberalization data and open markets , may significantly effected the agricultural sector. Where although it contributed to increase the size and rate of growth of Syrian agricultural trade, but this increase is caused by an increase in the volume of agricultural imports that exceeded the volume of agricultural exportrs, and that led to a defict in its balance, after it has achieved larg surpluses for long period. It was concluded from the study, that the process of foreign trade liberalization carried in some of its aspects, negative effects on the Syrian agricultural sector, inparticular the defict of its trare balance, instead of being great motivation , to take its pioneering role in economy.
References used
النعيمي، قاسم الحيازات الزراعية منشورات المكتب المركزي للإحصاء دمشق عام 2008 ص 3.
الأشقر، أحمد السكان والتنمية الاقتصادية مطبعة جامعة حلب سورية عام 1984 ص 84
Ellis Frank – "Agricultural policies in Development countries – Syria" – Cambridge university press – cam bridge – 2002 – P67
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at the trade balance gets positive changes.
We find that the public development expenditure has significant effect both exports and imports, but the way it manages this expenditure leads to an increase in imports higher than the increase in exports. In other words, this expenditure failed to solve the problem of trade balance deficit.
Hence, there must be an expansion in the public development expenditure with efficient management to improve the level of production quantity and quality, in addition to measure the reflects of this expenditure and other economic policies on foreign trade sector constantly, so we can get the maximum benefits of it
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s its foreign trade liberalization, and open markets, and engaged in regional and international partnerships. The study used economical analysis method to study some indicators relating to customs duties and foreign trade in Syria. So the research reached to some important results, that the process of reducing customs duties that associated with foreign tread liberalization, has contributed significantly to the increase in the volume of commodity imports, which led to an aggravation defect in our trade balance, and deterioration the terms of trade exchange, in addition to the significant decline in the rate of customs proceeds to imports in the national economy.
And that needs primary reducing the dependence on imports in our economic activity, and trending towards activation the alternatives imports industry, especially those that constitute a burden on our trade balance.
Inaddition to try to find some other recommendations that serve the aim of research.
The research aims to identify the role that foreign trade plays in the
Syrian economy,
They are an important part of the national economy, and which is
secured need the economy to build production capacity of capital
goods, and through the discha
rge of the flooding of the need for
domestic demand of the product, and therefore the external sector
developments reflect the productive structure of the national
economy, employment and price and income level. . and also the
effects of economic policies.
The researcher has addressed the economic reforms that directly
affect the foreign trade, and then analyzed the structure of the
foreign trade to discover the real economic potentials and the
necessary requirements for the promotion.
تأثير التعامل الاقتصادي مع الدول المحيطة والاتحاد الاوروبي على حكة البضائع الزراعية وأثر ذلك على الميزان التجاري
The aim of this study was to apply Box- Jenkins methodology represented by ARIMA models, to forecast some indicators of foreign trade in Syria, and to know if these models are effective in forecasting. The main results were: -The time series for the
indicator of trade exposure in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.-The time series for the indicator of import- export covering in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences. - ARIMA (1,1,1) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of trade exposure, and it is effective model. - ARIMA (2,1,0) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of import- export covering, and it is effective model.
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