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The impact of GAFTA implementation on the most important fruits (apple and orange) in Syria

أثر تطبيق منطقة التجارة الحرة العربية الكبرى (غافتا) على أهم محاصيل الفواكه (التفاح و البرتقال) في سورية

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 Publication date 2014
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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Fruits' trading is considered one of the most important agricultural trades in Syria, due to its big incomings and its role in supporting the national economy. GAFTA members are representing the biggest partner for Syria in this trade. The aim of this research was to assess the impact of GAFA on the exports and imports of orange and apple which are considered the most important Syrian fruits, by using dummy variables through the time series of (1994 - 2010). The research showed that GAFTA had no significant impact on any of the studied commodities through the transitional phase (1998-2004), while it had a positive significant effect on both of the exports and imports of these commodities after the full implementation stage (2005-2010). Significant differences were found between the three stages (before- during- after) GAFTA implementation. after implementation stage showed significant differences comparing to the other stages, in which the exports and imports of both orange and apple had increased in this stage comparing to the previous ones by quantity and value.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تتناول هذه الدراسة تأثير تطبيق منطقة التجارة الحرة العربية الكبرى (غافتا) على صادرات وواردات أهم محاصيل الفواكه في سوريا، وهما التفاح والبرتقال، خلال الفترة من 1994 إلى 2010. استخدمت الدراسة المتغيرات الصماء لتحليل البيانات عبر ثلاث مراحل: ما قبل التطبيق، خلال المرحلة الانتقالية، وما بعد التطبيق الكامل للاتفاقية. أظهرت النتائج أن الاتفاقية لم يكن لها تأثير معنوي خلال المرحلة الانتقالية (1998-2004)، بينما كان لها تأثير إيجابي معنوي بعد التطبيق الكامل (2005-2010). ازدادت صادرات التفاح والبرتقال بشكل كبير بعد التطبيق الكامل، حيث بلغت الزيادة في الصادرات 107.28 ألف طن للتفاح و87.68 ألف طن للبرتقال مقارنة بالمرحلة الأولى. كما ازدادت الواردات من التفاح والبرتقال بمقدار 2.08 و13.68 ألف طن على التوالي مقارنة بالمرحلة الأولى. توصي الدراسة بإعادة النظر في تطبيق الاتفاقية على بعض السلع الحساسة مثل البرتقال، واستمرار تطبيقها بالنسبة للتفاح نظراً لزيادة الصادرات بشكل كبير.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر هذه الدراسة مهمة لفهم تأثير اتفاقية غافتا على التجارة الزراعية في سوريا، إلا أن هناك بعض النقاط التي يمكن تحسينها. أولاً، كان من الممكن توسيع نطاق الدراسة ليشمل محاصيل أخرى غير التفاح والبرتقال للحصول على صورة أوسع عن تأثير الاتفاقية. ثانياً، لم تتناول الدراسة بشكل كافٍ العوامل الأخرى التي قد تكون أثرت على التجارة الزراعية خلال الفترة المدروسة، مثل التغيرات السياسية والاقتصادية الداخلية والخارجية. ثالثاً، كان من الممكن استخدام نماذج اقتصادية أكثر تعقيداً لتحليل البيانات بشكل أعمق. على الرغم من هذه النقاط، تظل الدراسة قيمة وتوفر أساساً جيداً لمزيد من الأبحاث في هذا المجال.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة؟

    الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة هو تقويم أثر تطبيق منطقة التجارة الحرة العربية الكبرى (غافتا) على صادرات وواردات التفاح والبرتقال في سوريا.

  2. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي غطتها الدراسة؟

    غطت الدراسة الفترة الزمنية من 1994 إلى 2010.

  3. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصلت إليها الدراسة بشأن تأثير الاتفاقية؟

    توصلت الدراسة إلى أن الاتفاقية لم يكن لها تأثير معنوي خلال المرحلة الانتقالية (1998-2004)، بينما كان لها تأثير إيجابي معنوي بعد التطبيق الكامل (2005-2010)، حيث ازدادت صادرات وواردات التفاح والبرتقال بشكل كبير.

  4. ما هي التوصيات التي قدمتها الدراسة بناءً على النتائج؟

    أوصت الدراسة بإعادة النظر في تطبيق الاتفاقية على بعض السلع الحساسة مثل البرتقال، واستمرار تطبيقها بالنسبة للتفاح نظراً لزيادة الصادرات بشكل كبير.


References used
Bisso, R. 2009. Development strategy for three sectors textile, agro food and fresh fruits and vegetables, Syrian enterprise and business center (SEBC), p. 14-17
Cirad, F. 2011. Assessment of the competitiveness of the syrian agriculture: an application to selected representative value chains (technical report), NAPC, Syria, p. 23-56
Coque, A., W. Hosny and U. Saadi. 2003. Opportunities for Syrian fruit and vegetable exports in the EU market, food and agriculture organization of the united nations, Syria, p.7-8
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