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The Impact of interest rate on sales and redemptions of investment certificates in popular credit bank

أثر سعر الفائدة في مبيعات شهادات الاستثمار واسترداداتها في مصرف التسليف الشعبي

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 Publication date 2014
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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The Investment of important banking service that characterizes the popular credit bank from other public and private banks from other public and private banks, certificates, also serves the interest rate imposed on it by the council of monetary and credit significant role in the economic structure or the society. Accordingly, the order intake find the mist important ideas that serve the research topic, according to the following: 1-The general concept of the interest rate. 2-The general concept of investment certificates and types. 3-Impact of validity in interest rates on the sales and redemptions of investment certificates in the popular credit bank. We have using annual data for the variables of the study with in the period (2004 -2012) in the popular credit bank.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تتناول هذه الدراسة تأثير سعر الفائدة على مبيعات شهادات الاستثمار واسترداداتها في مصرف التسليف الشعبي في سوريا خلال الفترة من 2004 إلى 2012. تعتبر شهادات الاستثمار من الخدمات المصرفية الهامة التي يقدمها المصرف، وسعر الفائدة هو العامل الرئيسي الذي يؤثر على قرارات العملاء فيما يتعلق بالاستثمار والادخار. استخدمت الدراسة بيانات سنوية لمتغيرات الدراسة واختبرت الفرضيات باستخدام الانحدار الخطي البسيط. أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة طردية قوية بين معدل الفائدة ومبيعات شهادات الاستثمار واسترداداتها، حيث بلغ معامل الارتباط 98% لمبيعات الشهادات و97% لاسترداداتها. كما أظهرت الدراسة أن أي زيادة بمقدار 1% في معدل الفائدة تؤدي إلى زيادة في مبيعات الشهادات بمعدل 17% وزيادة في استرداداتها بمعدل 18%. توصي الدراسة بضرورة دراسة العوامل المؤثرة في رفع حجم مبيعات شهادات الاستثمار واسترداداتها إضافة لسعر الفائدة المرتفع، ومراقبة الاستردادات المستمرة دون زيادة مبيعاتها لتجنب المخاطر على إيرادات المصرف.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر هذه الدراسة هامة في فهم العلاقة بين سعر الفائدة ومبيعات واستردادات شهادات الاستثمار في مصرف التسليف الشعبي. ومع ذلك، يمكن توجيه بعض النقد البناء للدراسة. أولاً، الدراسة تعتمد على بيانات فترة زمنية محدودة (2004-2012)، مما قد يؤثر على تعميم النتائج على فترات زمنية أطول أو مختلفة. ثانياً، الدراسة تركز بشكل كبير على العلاقة الطردية بين المتغيرات دون التطرق بشكل كافٍ إلى العوامل الأخرى التي قد تؤثر على مبيعات واستردادات شهادات الاستثمار مثل الظروف الاقتصادية العامة والسياسات المالية الأخرى. ثالثاً، الاعتماد على الانحدار الخطي البسيط قد يكون غير كافٍ لفهم التعقيدات الكاملة للعلاقة بين المتغيرات، وكان من الممكن استخدام نماذج اقتصادية أكثر تعقيداً لتحليل البيانات بشكل أعمق.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي العلاقة بين سعر الفائدة ومبيعات شهادات الاستثمار في مصرف التسليف الشعبي؟

    أظهرت الدراسة وجود علاقة طردية قوية بين سعر الفائدة ومبيعات شهادات الاستثمار، حيث أن أي زيادة بمقدار 1% في معدل الفائدة تؤدي إلى زيادة في مبيعات الشهادات بمعدل 17%.

  2. كيف تؤثر استردادات شهادات الاستثمار على مبيعاتها؟

    أظهرت الدراسة وجود علاقة طردية قوية بين استردادات شهادات الاستثمار ومبيعاتها، حيث أن أي زيادة بمقدار 1% في استردادات الشهادات تؤدي إلى زيادة في المبيعات بمعدل 0.46%.

  3. ما هي الفرضيات التي اختبرتها الدراسة؟

    اختبرت الدراسة ثلاث فرضيات رئيسية: لا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين سعر الفائدة ومبيعات شهادات الاستثمار، لا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين سعر الفائدة واستردادات شهادات الاستثمار، ولا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين استردادات شهادات الاستثمار ومبيعاتها.

  4. ما هي التوصيات التي قدمتها الدراسة؟

    أوصت الدراسة بضرورة دراسة العوامل المؤثرة في رفع حجم مبيعات شهادات الاستثمار واسترداداتها إضافة لسعر الفائدة المرتفع، ومراقبة الاستردادات المستمرة دون زيادة مبيعاتها لتجنب المخاطر على إيرادات المصرف.


References used
Mullineux,A.,Macdonld,G.andSensarma,R., Asymmetric Effect of Interest Rate changes ; The Role of the consumption- weath channel, available at SSRN,2007
Kapoor,M;Ravi,s. Effect of interest rate on consumption, A paper presented at the annual conference on economic growth and development at India school of Business, New Delhi,2008,135-119
Weston,JFred,et,al.Essentials of managerial Finance,u.s.a,The Dryden press,1996,35
السيد علي, عبد المنعم ؛ العيسى, نزار سعد الدين . النقود والمصارف والأسواق المالية , دار . الحامد للنشر , الطبعة الأولى, عمان ,208,2004
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