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Register a new userAnalysis of the base flow hydrograph of AL-SIN spring in Syrian Coast
تحليل هيدروغراف الجريان القاعدي لنبع السن في الساحل السوري
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يتشكل نبع السن عند أقدام الجبال الساحلية ويصبّ في البحر المتوسط قرب قرية عرب الملك. و تُستخدم مياهه حالياً لأغراض الشرب و الري و الصناعة، و يذهب ما يفيض منه إلى البحر. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد مدى استجابة غزارة النبع اليومية للهطولات المطرية اليومية، و إيجاد معادلة تصريف الانحسار للتنبؤ بمعدلات تصريف النبع و حجوم الجريان بعد أي زمن محدد من بداية الجريان القاعدي للنبع، الأمر الذي يسمح بإدارة و استثمار الموارد المائية المتاحة من خلال التصميم الأمثل لمآخذ المياه من الينابيع بشكل عام. تترلوح استجابة غزارة نبع السن اليومية بين (3-5) يوم أيام للهطولات المطرية اليومية المتقطعة المتوسطة و الغزيرة الشدة نسبياً. فتسبب زيادة لغزارة النبع تتراوح بين (0.5-1 m3/sec). و يميل التصريف السنوي للنبع إلى الانخفاض بمعدل 0.0975 m3/sec و ذلك خلال الفترة (1974-2016)م. بينما خلال فترة (2016-1994) تزداد قيمة التصاريف الشهرية الأصغرية بمقدار 0.1284 m3/sec، و تنخفض قيمة التصاريف الشهرية الأعظمية بمقدار 0.0752 m3/sec. يُوصى باعتماد تحليل منحنيات الانحسار في الينابيع للتنبؤ بالتصريف الأمثل لها خلال أزمنة محددة.
AlSin Spring spurts at the foot of coastal mountains and pours in The Mediterranean sea near Arab-Almulk village. Presently, spring water used for drinking, irrigation and industry, while excess water goes to sea. Current research aims to determine the daily discharge response to daily rainfall, and to set an equation for recession discharge for predicting spring discharge and volumes of flow after definite time from the beginning of spring base flow, which allows to operate and manipulate available water resources through an optimum design of water intake from this spring. Response time of AlSin Spring between (3-5) days for average discrete daily rainfall with high intensity which caused 0.5 ~ 1.0 m3/sec increasing in spring discharge value. Yearly discharge trends to decrease with a rate of 0.0975 m3/sec between 1974 and 2016 years. While the monthly minimum discharges increase about 0.1284 m3/sec, and monthly maximums decrease about 0.0752 m3/sec between 1994 and 2016. We recommend adopting recession curve analysis to predict the optimal discharge of springs within definite periods.
References used
DENGFENG, L, JIANXIA, CHM FUQIANGM T, QIANG, H، 2015، "Analysis of baseflow index based hydrological model in upper wei river on the loess plateau in China remote sensing anf GIS for hydrology and water resources (IAHS publ,368,2015) ,China
BRUSKOVA, V, 2008، "Assessment of the baseflow in the upper part of torysa river catchment "، Slovak Journal of civil engineering. Slovak
KOLTUM, G. " Determination of base-flow characteristics at selected streamflow – gaging stations on the Mad River, Ohio
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The study and design of water-intakes on springs is based on the analysis of time series of
historical measurements to achieve prediction of incoming water volumes or future
expected.
The research aims to model the monthly water flows of AL-SIN Sp
ring in Syrian Coast
and future expectations of these flows, by adopting the Box-Jenkins models to analyze the
time series data, due to its reliable accuracy. Monthly water flows, thus, monthly volumes,
for 101 month (from June 2008 to October 2016) were processed. Performing the stability
of the time series on variance and median and non-seasonality and making the wanted tests
on model residuals, we found that the best model to represent the data is SARIMA(2,0,1)
(2,1,0)12 , and after dividing the data into 81 month to build the model and 20 month to test
it. Depending on the smallest of weighted mean of criteria RMSE, MAP, MAE,. The best
predicted model was SARIMA (3,1,0) (1,1,0)12 and the model gave the nearest predicted
values to actually measured data in spring.
The research area is located in the Syrian coast between the Sin and Rous river. This
research aims at studying the hydrogeological characteristics of the unconfined aquifer in
the research area and evaluating the conditions of its placed. The rese
arch was based on a
monitoring network consisting of 36 wells that penetrate the unconfined aquifer, and
measurements continued during the period (October 2016 until September 2017).
The unconfined groundwater depths in the research area range between 0.5-11.5 m, and
sometimes during the drought period reach to 13.5 m, while it is close to the surface in the
winter and up to 0.1m in some wells. The electrical conductivity ranges between
550-3700 μs/cm, increasing as we go west and reaching 9,000 μs/cm and more in the wells
near the sea during the dry period. Groundwater levels Lower in the dry period to below
sea level in near-shore wells, achieves the hydrodynamic conditions of the seawater
intrusion.
Results of this research which had been done by hydrogeological and geoelectrical survey for fresh water resources in the study region (wells and springs) show that the fundamental aquifer of underground water in AL-SIN region belongs to Jurassic. Th
e alimentary basin of AL-SIN spring depend upon filtration of rain water and snow throw Jurassic formation from north and north–east of basin. Direction of underground water circulation on west and south-west where we find flow place of AL-SIN spring and submarine springs near seashore.
The study and design of water dams depend essential on prediction of water volumes
or future predicted in rivers, by using the time series analysis of the historical
measurements.
The research aims to make statistical study of monthly water volume
s incoming in
AL-Aroos River in Syrian coastal and future prediction of these volumes. And the
Box-Jenkins models is adopt to analysis the time series data, because of its high accuracy.
We attend the monthly water volumes for 15 years. And after doing the wanted tests on
model residuals we found that the best model to represent the data is SARIMA(0,1,2)
(1,2,1)12 , and after dividing the data to 14 years to build the model and one year to test it ,
and depending on the smallest of weighted mean of criteria RMSE, MAP, MAE,. The best
predicted model is SARIMA (1,1,0) (0,1,1)12 and the model give the nearest predicted of
measured data actually.
This study has been conducted on Syrian coastal area in 2013 season, aimed to
analyze the cost of honey production and Farm income `at the Apiaries level, in addition to
measure its net returns and economic efficiency. A field questioner was applie
d to obtain
elementary data of a random sample consisted of (304) of Apiary units.
The results show that beekeeping is one of the economically viable agricultural
projects, where most of the apiaries in the sample were able to achieve a positive net return
as much, on average, about (405 834) SP / promiscuous, while its value was estimated at
the hive level by about (7120) SP. It was found that the majority of apiaries in the study
sample (87.8%) were able to achieve positive earnings, While the ratio (12.2%) exposed of
the loss, and realized negative revenues .
The results of the investment evaluation and financial analysis showed to the
economic efficiency of the apiaries , reaching gross margin of the hive (11237.5) SP/year,
and ratio of costs to revenue (62.9%), the profit ratio to total costs (59%), and general
economic efficiency (1.59 ), and the Payback period (1.69) years.
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