The study and design of water-intakes on springs is based on the analysis of time series of
historical measurements to achieve prediction of incoming water volumes or future
expected.
The research aims to model the monthly water flows of AL-SIN Sp
ring in Syrian Coast
and future expectations of these flows, by adopting the Box-Jenkins models to analyze the
time series data, due to its reliable accuracy. Monthly water flows, thus, monthly volumes,
for 101 month (from June 2008 to October 2016) were processed. Performing the stability
of the time series on variance and median and non-seasonality and making the wanted tests
on model residuals, we found that the best model to represent the data is SARIMA(2,0,1)
(2,1,0)12 , and after dividing the data into 81 month to build the model and 20 month to test
it. Depending on the smallest of weighted mean of criteria RMSE, MAP, MAE,. The best
predicted model was SARIMA (3,1,0) (1,1,0)12 and the model gave the nearest predicted
values to actually measured data in spring.
