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Analysis of migration from the area of Jabal al- Hoss using some econometric techniques

تحليل الهجرة من منطقة جبل الحص باستخدام بعض تقنيات الاقتصاد القياسي

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 Publication date 2012
  fields Agrarian Economy
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This paper presented an analysis of the most important factors that drive immigrants from the area of Jabal al-Hoss in the province of Aleppo to different directions searched for employment and how they affect migration destination and the nature of the work on the amount of migrant remittances to his family. The research also highlighted the importance of individual characteristics, family and community of immigrants, especially since the study area was considered one of the dry and marginal areas in Syria, poor in natural and human resources using the methods of econometric analysis (models logistic regression and multiple regressions). Results showed that the probability of migration out of Syria was getting the male immigrants and individuals younger and more educated and those who were descended from the family even poorer, and the largest number, also found that the likelihood of working immigrant in the agricultural sector increased immigrants from females, and those with a low educational level. There was also an evidence that the amount of remittances sent to families of migrants increased if migrant worked in non-agricultural sector, and as the family was much poorer and more numerous.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
يقدم هذا البحث تحليلاً شاملاً للعوامل التي تؤثر على هجرة الأفراد من منطقة جبل الحص في محافظة حلب، سوريا، باستخدام تقنيات الاقتصاد القياسي مثل نماذج الانحدار اللوجستي والانحدار المتعدد. يركز البحث على تأثير الخصائص الفردية والأسرية والمجتمعية على قرارات الهجرة، بما في ذلك الوجهة ونوع العمل، وكذلك على كمية التحويلات المالية التي يرسلها المهاجرون إلى أسرهم. أظهرت النتائج أن الذكور، الأصغر عمراً، والأكثر تعليماً، والأفراد من الأسر الفقيرة والأكبر حجماً هم الأكثر احتمالاً للهجرة خارج سوريا. كما أن النساء والأفراد ذوي المستوى التعليمي المنخفض يميلون للعمل في القطاع الزراعي. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، تزداد كمية التحويلات المالية إذا كانت الهجرة خارجية وإذا كان المهاجر يعمل في قطاع غير زراعي. يوصي البحث بتشجيع إقامة مشاريع تنموية في منطقة جبل الحص لتوفير فرص عمل مستقرة للسكان، وخاصة النساء والشباب، وتقديم التدريب المناسب لهم.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: يقدم هذا البحث تحليلاً مهماً وشاملاً للعوامل المؤثرة في هجرة الأفراد من منطقة جبل الحص، ويستخدم تقنيات الاقتصاد القياسي بشكل فعال لتقديم نتائج دقيقة وموثوقة. ومع ذلك، يمكن توجيه بعض النقد البناء لتحسين الدراسة. أولاً، يمكن توسيع نطاق البحث ليشمل مناطق أخرى في سوريا للحصول على صورة أكثر شمولية. ثانياً، يمكن تحسين جمع البيانات من خلال استخدام تقنيات أحدث وأدق لضمان دقة النتائج. ثالثاً، يمكن تعزيز التحليل النوعي لفهم الدوافع النفسية والاجتماعية للهجرة بشكل أعمق. وأخيراً، يمكن تقديم توصيات أكثر تفصيلاً حول كيفية تنفيذ المشاريع التنموية المقترحة لضمان تحقيق الأهداف المرجوة.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي العوامل الرئيسية التي تؤثر على قرار الهجرة من منطقة جبل الحص؟

    العوامل الرئيسية تشمل الجنس، العمر، المستوى التعليمي، الوضع الاقتصادي للأسرة، وحجم الأسرة. الذكور، الأصغر عمراً، الأكثر تعليماً، والأفراد من الأسر الفقيرة والأكبر حجماً هم الأكثر احتمالاً للهجرة خارج سوريا.

  2. كيف تؤثر طبيعة العمل على كمية التحويلات المالية المرسلة إلى أسر المهاجرين؟

    تزداد كمية التحويلات المالية إذا كان المهاجر يعمل في قطاع غير زراعي، وتقل إذا كان يعمل في القطاع الزراعي.

  3. ما هي التوصيات الرئيسية التي يقدمها البحث لتحسين الوضع الاقتصادي في منطقة جبل الحص؟

    يوصي البحث بتشجيع إقامة مشاريع تنموية لتوفير فرص عمل مستقرة للسكان، وخاصة النساء والشباب، وتقديم التدريب المناسب لهم، وتشجيع تربية الثروة الحيوانية وتقديم التسهيلات المناسبة لذلك.

  4. ما هي التقنيات الاقتصادية المستخدمة في تحليل البيانات في هذا البحث؟

    استخدم البحث تقنيات الاقتصاد القياسي مثل نماذج الانحدار اللوجستي والانحدار المتعدد لتحليل البيانات.


References used
Cameron A. C. and P. K. Trivedi. 2009. Microeconometrics using stata. Texas: Stata Press Publications, StataCorp LP
Ezra M. and G. Kiros. 2001. Rural Out-Migration in the drought prone areas of ethiopia: A “Multilevel Analysis”. International Migration Review, 35( 3): 749-771
Gujarati, D. 1999. Essentials of econometrics. Second Edition. McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc
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