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Syrian banking performance in the current Syrian variables

أداء المصرف التجاري السوري في ظل المتغيرات السورية الراهنة

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 Publication date 2015
  fields Economy
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This research aims to study the Syrian banking system performance in light of changes that began in Syria since March 2011 and their implications (the case of Commercial Bank of Syria). It was found that the banking sector exposure to fallout led to instability, which limited the role of as a financial intermediary supporting production and encourage investment in the various national sectors of the economy, in addition to reducing the volume of services provided by banks, and changes in exchange rates, and a crisis of liquidity and credit. The research has been relying on financial reports which is published on the case of Commercial Bank of Syria site during the period from 2010 to 2013.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل أداء المصرف التجاري السوري في ظل المتغيرات الاقتصادية والسياسية التي شهدتها سوريا منذ مارس 2011. استخدمت الباحثة بيانات التقارير المالية المنشورة على موقع المصرف التجاري السوري للفترة من 2010 إلى 2013. أظهرت النتائج أن القطاع المصرفي السوري تعرض لتداعيات كبيرة أدت إلى عدم استقراره، مما حد من دوره كوسيط مالي في دعم الإنتاج وتشجيع الاستثمار. كما شهدت المصارف انخفاضاً في حجم الخدمات المقدمة، وتغيرات في أسعار الصرف، وأزمة سيولة وائتمان. اعتمدت الدراسة على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي واستخدمت برنامج التحليل الإحصائي SPSS20 لتحليل البيانات. توصلت الدراسة إلى عدة استنتاجات منها أن المصرف التجاري السوري استطاع الصمود والتطور رغم الظروف الصعبة، وأن هناك علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين حجم التوظيفات المنتجة وحجم إيداعات الزبائن. وأوصت الدراسة بضرورة تعزيز سيولة المصارف وإدخال أدوات تمويل حديثة وتطويرها.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر هذه الدراسة مهمة في تسليط الضوء على تأثير الأزمة السورية على القطاع المصرفي، إلا أنها تفتقر إلى تحليل عميق لبعض الجوانب الاقتصادية الأخرى التي قد تكون أثرت على أداء المصرف التجاري السوري. كما أن الاعتماد على بيانات فترة محدودة (2010-2013) قد لا يعكس الصورة الكاملة للتغيرات التي طرأت على القطاع المصرفي. كان من الأفضل توسيع نطاق الدراسة لتشمل فترات زمنية أطول وتحليل تأثير العوامل الخارجية مثل العقوبات الاقتصادية الدولية بشكل أكثر تفصيلاً. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، كان من الممكن تعزيز الدراسة بمزيد من المقابلات مع الخبراء والمصرفيين للحصول على رؤى أعمق.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي الفرضيات التي انطلقت منها الدراسة؟

    انطلقت الدراسة من فرضية أساس تنص على ظهور عدد من المؤشرات الاقتصادية والمالية التي أدت إلى خسائر تكبدها القطاع المصرفي نتيجة عدم القدرة على توظيفها في منافذ استثمارية. وقد تم صياغة فرضيات البحث بالشكل التالي: لا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين تغيير أسعار الفائدة وحجم الودائع، ولا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين أرباح (خسائر) تقييم مركز القطع البنيوي وتغيير سعر الصرف، ولا توجد علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين حجم التوظيفات المنتجة وحجم إيداعات الزبائن.

  2. ما هي المنهجية التي اعتمدت عليها الدراسة؟

    اعتمدت الدراسة على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي من خلال جمع المادة العلمية المتعلقة بالبحث من مصادرها، والقيام بالدراسة الميدانية لتجميع البيانات الأولية من واقع مجتمع وعينة البحث عن طريق بيانات التقارير المالية للمصرف التجاري السوري للفترة من 2010 حتى 2013. تم استخدام برنامج التحليل الإحصائي SPSS20 لاختبار صحة أو عدم صحة فرضيات البحث باستخدام الأساليب الإحصائية المناسبة.

  3. ما هي أهم النتائج التي توصلت إليها الدراسة؟

    توصلت الدراسة إلى أن المصرف التجاري السوري استطاع الصمود والتطور رغم الظروف الداخلية والعقوبات الاقتصادية التي فرضتها العديد من الدول. كما أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة ذات دلالة إحصائية بين حجم التوظيفات المنتجة وحجم إيداعات الزبائن، وأن هناك تأثيراً كبيراً لتغيرات سعر الصرف على أرباح إعادة تقييم مراكز القطع البنيوي لدى المصرف.

  4. ما هي التوصيات التي قدمتها الدراسة؟

    أوصت الدراسة بضرورة إيجاد سوق مصرفية جديدة تساعد على توسيع دائرة العمل المصرفي، وتعزيز سيولة المصارف لمواجهة الزيادة في السحوبات وزيادة قدرتها على التمويل. كما أوصت بإدخال أدوات تمويل حديثة وتطويرها، وإعادة النظر في سعر الفائدة وجعله متحركاً حسب الظروف الاقتصادية، واعتماد مبدأ الربح بالإضافة إلى تحقيق التنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية.


References used
Patric T . Downes,David Martson and Inci Otker ," Mapping Financial Sector Vulnerability in non- Crisis Country" IMF Discussion Paper 1999
Demerguc Kunt et als.," Inside the Crisis:An Emperical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress" IMF Working paper wp/00/56 oct.2000
Fredric Mishkan ," Economics of Financial Policies and the Prevention of Financial Crises in Emeging Market Countries”A Paper of the NBER Conference ,Woosstock,Vermont,Oct19 –21 2000
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