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Register a new userRainfalls and Their Importance in the Development of Water Resources: An Empirical Study of Rainfalls of Coastal Region during the Period (2002-2012)
كميات الأمطار و أهميتها في تنمية الموارد المائية دراسة تطبيقية في المنطقة الساحلية خلال الفترة (2002-2012)
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نظراً لارتفاع معدل هطول الأمطار في المنطقة الساحلية، و قلة المشاريع المائية فيها مقارنةً مع العرض المائي، و بالتالي عدم الاستفادة من مياه الأمطار بدرجة كبيرة. رأينا أن نلفت الانتباه إلى أهمية الاستفادة من كميات الأمطار في تنمية الموارد المائية في المنطقة الساحلية, و ذلك من خلال ايجاد نموذج رياضي يربط بين كميات الأمطار و بين الطلب (السكاني و الزراعي و الصناعي) على الموارد المائية خلال الفترة (2000-2012), و ذلك بهدف إمكانية التنبؤ فيها مستقبلاً, و بما يكفل حسن إدارتها و ترشيد استخدامها في القطاعات المختلفة. و كان من أهم نتائج البحث: 1- تتطور كميات الأمطار بشكل متناقص خلال الفترة (2002-2012), و بمعدل سنوي بلغ (1.84%). 2- يتطور حجم الطلب على الموارد المائية بشكل متزايد خلال الفترة (2002-2012), و بمعدل سنوي بلغ (3.41%) للطلب السكاني, و (3.47%) للطلب الزراعي, و (6.25%) للطلب الصناعي. 3- هناك فائض بين كمية الموارد المائية المتاحة و حجم الطلب عليها, حيث يتناقص هذا الفائض خلال الفترة (2002-2012) بمعدل سنوي بلغ (2.97%). 4- إن تقدير الفائض بين كمية المتاح من الموارد المائية, و حجم الطلب عليها سيتناقص في العام 2023 عما سيكون عليه في العام 2013 بمعدل سنوي (-3.23%).
Because rainfall in the coastal area is high and water projects are nearly missing, we think it is important to make use of available water resources. In order to predict future rainfalls and suggest proper management of resources, we created a mathematical model linking rainfall amounts between demand (population, agricultural and industrial) on water resources during the period (2000-2012). Results show the following: 1. Rainfalls decreased during the period ( 2002-2012) at an annual rate of (1.84%). 2. Demand on water resources increased during the period (2002-2012) at an annual rate of (3.41%) of the population demand, and (3.47 %) of the agricultural demand, and 6.25% for industrial demand. 3. There is a surplus of available water resources and the size of demand for them, with the surplus decreasing during the period (2002-2012) at an annual rate (2.97 %). 4. The estimation of the surplus between the amount of available water resources and the size of the demand for them will decrease in 2023 from what it was like in the year 2013 at an annual rate (-3.23%).
References used
E. Kondili & J.K. Kaldellis." Model Development for the Optimal Water Systems Planning", 16th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering and 9th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering, 2006
Ilias Mariolakos. "Water resources management in the framework of sustainable development", Desalination 213, 2007, 149
التقرير السنوي لوزارة الري، 2005 105
مركز معلومات الموارد المائية، التقرير السنوي، 2005 165-167
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