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Register a new userRainfalls and Their Importance in the Development of Water Resources: An Empirical Study of Rainfalls of Coastal Region during the Period (2002-2012)
كميات الأمطار و أهميتها في تنمية الموارد المائية دراسة تطبيقية في المنطقة الساحلية خلال الفترة (2002-2012)
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نظراً لارتفاع معدل هطول الأمطار في المنطقة الساحلية، و قلة المشاريع المائية فيها مقارنةً مع العرض المائي، و بالتالي عدم الاستفادة من مياه الأمطار بدرجة كبيرة. رأينا أن نلفت الانتباه إلى أهمية الاستفادة من كميات الأمطار في تنمية الموارد المائية في المنطقة الساحلية, و ذلك من خلال ايجاد نموذج رياضي يربط بين كميات الأمطار و بين الطلب (السكاني و الزراعي و الصناعي) على الموارد المائية خلال الفترة (2000-2012), و ذلك بهدف إمكانية التنبؤ فيها مستقبلاً, و بما يكفل حسن إدارتها و ترشيد استخدامها في القطاعات المختلفة. و كان من أهم نتائج البحث: 1- تتطور كميات الأمطار بشكل متناقص خلال الفترة (2002-2012), و بمعدل سنوي بلغ (1.84%). 2- يتطور حجم الطلب على الموارد المائية بشكل متزايد خلال الفترة (2002-2012), و بمعدل سنوي بلغ (3.41%) للطلب السكاني, و (3.47%) للطلب الزراعي, و (6.25%) للطلب الصناعي. 3- هناك فائض بين كمية الموارد المائية المتاحة و حجم الطلب عليها, حيث يتناقص هذا الفائض خلال الفترة (2002-2012) بمعدل سنوي بلغ (2.97%). 4- إن تقدير الفائض بين كمية المتاح من الموارد المائية, و حجم الطلب عليها سيتناقص في العام 2023 عما سيكون عليه في العام 2013 بمعدل سنوي (-3.23%).
Because rainfall in the coastal area is high and water projects are nearly missing, we think it is important to make use of available water resources. In order to predict future rainfalls and suggest proper management of resources, we created a mathematical model linking rainfall amounts between demand (population, agricultural and industrial) on water resources during the period (2000-2012). Results show the following: 1. Rainfalls decreased during the period ( 2002-2012) at an annual rate of (1.84%). 2. Demand on water resources increased during the period (2002-2012) at an annual rate of (3.41%) of the population demand, and (3.47 %) of the agricultural demand, and 6.25% for industrial demand. 3. There is a surplus of available water resources and the size of demand for them, with the surplus decreasing during the period (2002-2012) at an annual rate (2.97 %). 4. The estimation of the surplus between the amount of available water resources and the size of the demand for them will decrease in 2023 from what it was like in the year 2013 at an annual rate (-3.23%).
Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
تناولت الدراسة كميات الأمطار وأهميتها في تنمية الموارد المائية في المنطقة الساحلية السورية خلال الفترة من 2002 إلى 2012. نظراً لارتفاع معدل هطول الأمطار في المنطقة الساحلية وقلة المشاريع المائية، هدفت الدراسة إلى تسليط الضوء على أهمية الاستفادة من كميات الأمطار في تنمية الموارد المائية. تم استخدام نموذج رياضي يربط بين كميات الأمطار والطلب على الموارد المائية (السكانية، الزراعية، والصناعية) بهدف التنبؤ بكميات الأمطار المستقبلية وضمان حسن إدارة الموارد المائية. أظهرت النتائج أن كميات الأمطار تتناقص بمعدل سنوي قدره 1.84%، بينما يزداد الطلب على الموارد المائية بمعدل سنوي قدره 3.41% للطلب السكاني، 3.47% للطلب الزراعي، و6.25% للطلب الصناعي. كما أظهرت الدراسة وجود فائض بين كمية الموارد المائية المتاحة وحجم الطلب عليها، والذي يتناقص بمعدل سنوي قدره 2.97%. وتوقعت الدراسة أن يتناقص هذا الفائض في العام 2023 بمعدل سنوي قدره 3.23%. وأوصت الدراسة بضرورة تحسين كفاءة استخدام المياه وتطبيق التشريعات المائية لحماية الموارد المائية من الاستنزاف والتلوث، بالإضافة إلى استثمار الفائض من الموارد المائية المتاحة في إقامة السدود والمشاريع المائية الأخرى.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: تعتبر هذه الدراسة مهمة جداً في تسليط الضوء على مشكلة نقص الموارد المائية في المنطقة الساحلية السورية وأهمية الاستفادة من كميات الأمطار. ومع ذلك، يمكن أن تكون الدراسة أكثر شمولية إذا تناولت تأثير التغيرات المناخية بشكل أوسع وكيفية تأثيرها على كميات الأمطار المستقبلية. كما أن الدراسة قد استفادت من استخدام تقنيات حديثة مثل الذكاء الاصطناعي لتحليل البيانات والتنبؤ بكميات الأمطار بشكل أدق. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، يمكن أن تكون التوصيات أكثر تفصيلاً وتحديداً فيما يتعلق بالإجراءات العملية التي يمكن اتخاذها لتحسين إدارة الموارد المائية.
Questions related to the research
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ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة؟
الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة هو تسليط الضوء على أهمية الاستفادة من كميات الأمطار في تنمية الموارد المائية في المنطقة الساحلية السورية، واستخدام نموذج رياضي للتنبؤ بكميات الأمطار المستقبلية وضمان حسن إدارة الموارد المائية.
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ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصلت إليها الدراسة؟
توصلت الدراسة إلى أن كميات الأمطار تتناقص بمعدل سنوي قدره 1.84%، بينما يزداد الطلب على الموارد المائية بمعدل سنوي قدره 3.41% للطلب السكاني، 3.47% للطلب الزراعي، و6.25% للطلب الصناعي. كما أظهرت وجود فائض بين كمية الموارد المائية المتاحة وحجم الطلب عليها، والذي يتناقص بمعدل سنوي قدره 2.97%.
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ما هي التوصيات التي قدمتها الدراسة؟
أوصت الدراسة بضرورة تحسين كفاءة استخدام المياه وتطبيق التشريعات المائية لحماية الموارد المائية من الاستنزاف والتلوث، بالإضافة إلى استثمار الفائض من الموارد المائية المتاحة في إقامة السدود والمشاريع المائية الأخرى.
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كيف تم تحليل البيانات في الدراسة؟
تم استخدام نموذج رياضي يربط بين كميات الأمطار والطلب على الموارد المائية (السكانية، الزراعية، والصناعية) لتحليل البيانات والتنبؤ بكميات الأمطار المستقبلية وضمان حسن إدارة الموارد المائية.
References used
E. Kondili & J.K. Kaldellis." Model Development for the Optimal Water Systems Planning", 16th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering and 9th International Symposium on Process Systems Engineering, 2006
Ilias Mariolakos. "Water resources management in the framework of sustainable development", Desalination 213, 2007, 149
التقرير السنوي لوزارة الري، 2005 105
مركز معلومات الموارد المائية، التقرير السنوي، 2005 165-167
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