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Analysis of Probable Density of Extreme Temperatures in Some Stations of the Syrian Coast Region Using Normal Distribution Curve

تحليل الكثافة الاحتمالية لمتوسطات درجات الحرارة السنوية الحدية في بعض محطات المنطقة الساحلية السورية باستخدام منحنى التوزيع الطبيعي

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 Publication date 2014
  fields Geography
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This piece of research analyzes the general-index change of annual medium temperatures in some stations of the Syrian Coast during the years 1970-2010, so as to identify the amount of change in temperatures and the effect of such a change on the probable density that results in annual medium temperatures that are both extreme and unnormal. Results point to an increase in temperatures in all those stations between 0.8 and 2 Celsius degrees. This increase is significant statistically. At the same time, temperatures had not gone lower than their general average in all those stations during the first decade of the 21st century, contributing to an increase of the annual average of temperature during the years 2001-2010 in comparison with the years 1970-2000. Using Natural Distribution Diagram during the years 2001-2010, analysis of the probable density of temperature refers to a great increase in the possibility of having higher extreme temperatures whose value did not exceed 5% over the last three decades. By contrast, lower extreme records had zero probability and got higher than they had been during the three decades of the late century.


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Research summary
يهدف هذا البحث إلى تحليل ميل خط الاتجاه العام لمتوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية في بعض محطات الساحل السوري خلال الفترة 1970-2010، لتحديد مقدار تغير درجة الحرارة وتأثير هذا التغير على الكثافة الاحتمالية لحدوث متوسطات درجات حرارة سنوية حدية أو شاذة. أظهرت النتائج ارتفاعًا في درجة الحرارة في جميع المحطات بين 0.8 و 2 درجة مئوية، وكان هذا الارتفاع هامًا إحصائيًا. لم تنخفض درجة الحرارة في جميع المحطات عن معدلها العام خلال العقد الأول من القرن 21، مما ساهم في ارتفاع المتوسط السنوي لدرجة الحرارة خلال الفترة 2001-2010 مقارنة بالفترة 1970-2000. أشار تحليل الكثافة الاحتمالية باستخدام منحنى التوزيع الطبيعي إلى زيادة كبيرة في احتمال ارتفاع متوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية إلى قيم حدية عليا، بينما انعدم احتمال حدوث القيم الحدية الدنيا وأصبحت أعلى بكثير عما كانت عليه في العقود الثلاثة الأخيرة من القرن الماضي.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: يعتبر هذا البحث مهمًا لفهم تأثير تغير المناخ على درجات الحرارة في المنطقة الساحلية السورية. ومع ذلك، هناك بعض النقاط التي يمكن تحسينها. أولاً، كان من الممكن توسيع نطاق الدراسة لتشمل فصول السنة المختلفة وليس فقط المتوسطات السنوية، حيث يمكن أن توفر هذه البيانات فهمًا أعمق للتغيرات المناخية. ثانيًا، كان من الممكن استخدام نماذج مناخية متعددة للتحقق من النتائج وزيادة دقتها. أخيرًا، كان من الممكن تضمين تحليل للتأثيرات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية لهذه التغيرات في درجات الحرارة، مما يمكن أن يوفر رؤية شاملة للتأثيرات المحتملة لتغير المناخ.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي يغطيها البحث؟

    يغطي البحث الفترة الزمنية من 1970 إلى 2010.

  2. ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من هذا البحث؟

    الهدف الرئيسي هو تحليل ميل خط الاتجاه العام لمتوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية في بعض محطات الساحل السوري وتحديد تأثير هذا التغير على الكثافة الاحتمالية لحدوث متوسطات درجات حرارة سنوية حدية أو شاذة.

  3. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصل إليها البحث؟

    توصل البحث إلى وجود ارتفاع في درجة الحرارة في جميع المحطات بين 0.8 و 2 درجة مئوية، وزيادة في احتمال حدوث درجات حرارة سنوية حدية عليا، وانعدام احتمال حدوث القيم الحدية الدنيا.

  4. ما هي التوصيات التي قدمها البحث؟

    أوصى البحث بتوسيع الدراسة لتشمل جميع الفصول والمناطق المناخية المختلفة، وإجراء دراسات لتحليل تكرارات القيم اليومية لدرجة الحرارة وتأثيرها على المجالات الحيوية مثل الزراعة والري.


References used
Biˇc´arov´a. C and Fleischer. P: Ozone Air Pollution in Extreme Weather Situation Environmental Risk in Mountain Ecosystems. Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards. Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009 p 75
Hohman.R & Frei. C: Extremereignisse und Klimaänderung: Wissensstand und Empfehlungen des OcCC, Organe consultatif sur les changements climatiques Beratendes Organ für Fragen der Klimaänderung, Bern, September 2003. P 11
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), (28/4/2014) https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators
Pongr´acz. R, Bartholy. J. Gelyb, G and Szab. P: Detected and Expected Trends of Extreme Climate Indices for the Carpathian Basin. Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards. Springer Science + Business Media B.V.2009. p 15
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