Do you want to publish a course? Click here

Analysis of Probable Density of Extreme Temperatures in Some Stations of the Syrian Coast Region Using Normal Distribution Curve

تحليل الكثافة الاحتمالية لمتوسطات درجات الحرارة السنوية الحدية في بعض محطات المنطقة الساحلية السورية باستخدام منحنى التوزيع الطبيعي

1618   1   115   0 ( 0 )
 Publication date 2014
  fields Geography
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




Ask ChatGPT about the research

This piece of research analyzes the general-index change of annual medium temperatures in some stations of the Syrian Coast during the years 1970-2010, so as to identify the amount of change in temperatures and the effect of such a change on the probable density that results in annual medium temperatures that are both extreme and unnormal. Results point to an increase in temperatures in all those stations between 0.8 and 2 Celsius degrees. This increase is significant statistically. At the same time, temperatures had not gone lower than their general average in all those stations during the first decade of the 21st century, contributing to an increase of the annual average of temperature during the years 2001-2010 in comparison with the years 1970-2000. Using Natural Distribution Diagram during the years 2001-2010, analysis of the probable density of temperature refers to a great increase in the possibility of having higher extreme temperatures whose value did not exceed 5% over the last three decades. By contrast, lower extreme records had zero probability and got higher than they had been during the three decades of the late century.


Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
يهدف هذا البحث إلى تحليل ميل خط الاتجاه العام لمتوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية في بعض محطات الساحل السوري خلال الفترة 1970-2010، لتحديد مقدار تغير درجة الحرارة وتأثير هذا التغير على الكثافة الاحتمالية لحدوث متوسطات درجات حرارة سنوية حدية أو شاذة. أظهرت النتائج ارتفاعًا في درجة الحرارة في جميع المحطات بين 0.8 و 2 درجة مئوية، وكان هذا الارتفاع هامًا إحصائيًا. لم تنخفض درجة الحرارة في جميع المحطات عن معدلها العام خلال العقد الأول من القرن 21، مما ساهم في ارتفاع المتوسط السنوي لدرجة الحرارة خلال الفترة 2001-2010 مقارنة بالفترة 1970-2000. أشار تحليل الكثافة الاحتمالية باستخدام منحنى التوزيع الطبيعي إلى زيادة كبيرة في احتمال ارتفاع متوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية إلى قيم حدية عليا، بينما انعدم احتمال حدوث القيم الحدية الدنيا وأصبحت أعلى بكثير عما كانت عليه في العقود الثلاثة الأخيرة من القرن الماضي.
Critical review
دراسة نقدية: يعتبر هذا البحث مهمًا لفهم تأثير تغير المناخ على درجات الحرارة في المنطقة الساحلية السورية. ومع ذلك، هناك بعض النقاط التي يمكن تحسينها. أولاً، كان من الممكن توسيع نطاق الدراسة لتشمل فصول السنة المختلفة وليس فقط المتوسطات السنوية، حيث يمكن أن توفر هذه البيانات فهمًا أعمق للتغيرات المناخية. ثانيًا، كان من الممكن استخدام نماذج مناخية متعددة للتحقق من النتائج وزيادة دقتها. أخيرًا، كان من الممكن تضمين تحليل للتأثيرات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية لهذه التغيرات في درجات الحرارة، مما يمكن أن يوفر رؤية شاملة للتأثيرات المحتملة لتغير المناخ.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي يغطيها البحث؟

    يغطي البحث الفترة الزمنية من 1970 إلى 2010.

  2. ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من هذا البحث؟

    الهدف الرئيسي هو تحليل ميل خط الاتجاه العام لمتوسط درجات الحرارة السنوية في بعض محطات الساحل السوري وتحديد تأثير هذا التغير على الكثافة الاحتمالية لحدوث متوسطات درجات حرارة سنوية حدية أو شاذة.

  3. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصل إليها البحث؟

    توصل البحث إلى وجود ارتفاع في درجة الحرارة في جميع المحطات بين 0.8 و 2 درجة مئوية، وزيادة في احتمال حدوث درجات حرارة سنوية حدية عليا، وانعدام احتمال حدوث القيم الحدية الدنيا.

  4. ما هي التوصيات التي قدمها البحث؟

    أوصى البحث بتوسيع الدراسة لتشمل جميع الفصول والمناطق المناخية المختلفة، وإجراء دراسات لتحليل تكرارات القيم اليومية لدرجة الحرارة وتأثيرها على المجالات الحيوية مثل الزراعة والري.


References used
Biˇc´arov´a. C and Fleischer. P: Ozone Air Pollution in Extreme Weather Situation Environmental Risk in Mountain Ecosystems. Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards. Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2009 p 75
Hohman.R & Frei. C: Extremereignisse und Klimaänderung: Wissensstand und Empfehlungen des OcCC, Organe consultatif sur les changements climatiques Beratendes Organ für Fragen der Klimaänderung, Bern, September 2003. P 11
NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), (28/4/2014) https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/indicators
Pongr´acz. R, Bartholy. J. Gelyb, G and Szab. P: Detected and Expected Trends of Extreme Climate Indices for the Carpathian Basin. Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards. Springer Science + Business Media B.V.2009. p 15
rate research

Read More

In this study, trends of annual and seasonal precipitation time series for the period of (1971–2006) were analysed for three meteorological stations (Lattakia, Tartous and Safita) located in the coastal region of Syria, by linear regression and Spear man's rho tests. The results showed a decreasing trend of annual precipitation in Lattakia and Tartous stations and increasing trend in Safita station. At the seasonal time scale, a decreasing trends of winter precipitation in Lattakia station and of spring precipitation in all stations were observed. While an increasing trends of winter precipitation in Tartous and Safita stations and of autumn precipitation in all stations were observed. Although, all of these negative and positive linear trends, both at the annual and seasonal time scales are not statistically significant at 5% level, but they can have severe effects on water resources, rivers regimes and success of rain-fed crops in the study areas
Some biological parameters of the parasitoid, Encyrtus aurantii (Geoffroy) (Hymenoptera : Encyrtidae) were studied under controlled laboratory conditions at five levels of temperature 18, 21, 24, 27, and 30 °C, 65±5% R.H. and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h when reared on Brown soft scale Coccus hesperidum L. (Homoptera: Coccidae) reared on Pumpkin Cucurbita moschata during the season 2010- 2011 . Result showed that the longer developmental period from egg to pupa was on 18 °C with an average of 24.25 days, and the lower developmental period was on 30°C with an average of 8.25 days. The longer developmental period from pupa to adult was on 18 °C with an average of 10.75 days, and the lower period was on 30 °C with an average of 5.5 days. The lower developmental threshold (LDT) from egg to pupa was 15.83°C, and 14.34°C from pupa to adult. E. aurantii required a Sum of Effective Temperatures (SET) of 122.74 degree-days above the lower developmental threshold (16.95 °C) to complete the development from egg to adult.
This study was conducted in the Syrian coastal region, and the honey samples have been collected from eight different sites belonging to the provinces of Latakia and Tartous during the autumn of 2012. Their content of heavy metals (zinc, copper, le ad & cadmium) was estimated by Atomic Absorption at the Higher Institute for Environmental Research at Tishreen University. The results showed that zinc concentration in the bee honey samples ranged from 2.86 to 12.64 mg / kg (mean 7.98±3.67), and copper ranged from 0.125 to 0.652 mg / kg (mean 0.328±0.176 ), lead ranged from 0.084 to 0.378 mg / kg (mean 0.205±0.112), cadmium ranged from 0.0002 to 0.0132 mg / kg (mean 0.0053±0.0052). The results indicated that the largest amounts of heavy metals were found in honey sample taken from the apiary which is located at the eastern entrance of Latakia city (near Joud factory), while the lower concentrations of zinc and lead were in Banias area (Wadi Al Saqi), and the least concentration of copper was in Safita area, and of cadmium was in the Gablah area (Bani Qahtan Castle).Comparing elements concentration in the studied honey samples, Zinc concentration was found to be the highest, followed by copper, lead and then finally cadmium.The results of statistical analysis indicated the existence of significant differences between the studied sites during the autumn of 2012.
This study conducted at Deir Al-Hajar Station during the season 2010-2011 to describe the lactation curve of Shami cattle and determine factors affecting its shape compenents. 1120 records of 356 Shami cows collected between 1997 – 2010 were used. Data were subjected to general linear model, and the analysis of variance used to determine the effect of factors. Duncan test was used to compare the means using SAS system (1996) and Incomplete gamma functions were used to estimate the parameters of lactation curve (a, b and on the basis of daily yield of milk. Results indicated that the average values of the gamma parameters were 2.14 ± 0.01 kg for a (beginning of milking ), 0.61 ± 0.02 kg for b (increasing milk production up to peak) and - 0.23± 0.01 kg for c (decreasing milk production from peak to dry). The effect of calving year was significant (p<0.01) on a, and (p<0.05) on b and (p<0.001) on c. The effect of age at calving and sex of calf was significant (p<0.01) on a but non significant on b and c. Season of calving, parity, and interaction between age and parity was not significant on all parameters. It was concluded that improving the productive performance of Shami cattle, requires applying a long term genetic improvement program to select the best herd.
This study was carried out using white German goat race during 2000-2001 at the Research Center of Animal Production Division, Humboldt University, Berlin, in order to examine the validity of the Lactocorder instrument, which has been used for det ermination of milking curve of cows, to determine the milking curve of goat, and to study the timing changes of this curve.

suggested questions

comments
Fetching comments Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
mircosoft-partner

هل ترغب بارسال اشعارات عن اخر التحديثات في شمرا-اكاديميا