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Register a new userThe Impact of Volatilities Stock Return on Trading Volume in Financial Markets "An Empirical Study in Damascus Stock Exchange "
أثر تقلبات عائد الأسهم على حجم التداول في الأسواق المالية "دراسة تطبيقية في سوق دمشق المالي"
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سعت هذه الدراسة إلى معرفة ما إذا كان هنالك أية علاقة مهمة بين حجم تداول أسهم الشركات السورية المدرجة في سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية و بين تقلبات عوائد الأسهم الشهرية في تلك السوق، خلال الفترة 1-1-2010 و لغاية 31-8-2014، و إلى معرفة نوع تلك العلاقة (طردية أم عكسية)، لإعطائها الوزن الملائم لها عند محاولة تفسير تقلبات حجم تداول الأسهم في سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية، أو عند التنبؤ بها. و لدى استخدام أسلوب تحليل الانحدار غير الخطي GARCH(1,1)، لمعالجة البيانات المتعلقة بعائد الأسهم في سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية، تبين أن العلاقة بين حجم تداول الأسهم و تقلبات عوائد الأسهم غير مهمة إحصائياً، و لهذا فلا مبرر لأخذ مخاطر تقلبات عوائد الأسهم بعين الاعتبار كعامل مهم عند محاولة تفسير أسباب تقلبات حجم التداول للسوق أو عند التنبؤ بها.
This study sought to find out whether there is any significant relationship between the in trading volume shares of Syrian companies listed in the Damascus market Securities Exchange, and Volatility of stock returns monthly in that market, during the period 1-1- 2010 till 31-8-2014, and to discover what kind of that relationship (positive or negative correlation) in order to give appropriate weight to them for interpreting fluctuations in the volume of trading in the stock Damascus market Securities Exchange, or for predicting. When using the method of Nonlinear regression analysis method GARCH(1,1) to process the data related to Return on the stock in DSE we found that the relationship between the trading volume shares and volatility of stock returns wasn't statistically significant. This volatility in stock returns mustn't be taken into account as an important factor when trying to explain the reasons for fluctuations in trading volume market or when predicting.
References used
ASAI, M. The Relationship between Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume: The case of The Philippines.working paper, 2007, 1-21
GUOHUA, M. Three Essays On Trading Volume. Phd, University Of Cincinnati, Ohio, 2007, 50
LOUHICHI, W. What Drives The Volume-Volatility Relationship On Euronext Paris?.Working Paper, 2011, 1-15
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