The velocity and direction of the wind greatly affect marine navigation and the
movement of merchant ships in harbors, It also affects the rapid movement of pollutants
into the air from industrial cities to agricultural and residential areas.
The
importance of the research comes from forecasting monthly wind velocity in the
Tartous station and to achieve this goal the data of time series for the monthly wind
velocity at Tartous station in Tartous governorate The methodology of "Box – Jenkins"
been used in the study, this methodology relies on finding future forecasts from original
data series.
Also, the applications “MINITAB, EXCEL” have been used to obtain the results of the
study.
As a result, the study found that wind velocity value in the ' Tartous station' decreasing,
this decline amounted to 0.002 km/h per month during the monitoring period.
Also, the appropriate (SARIMA) model for the series was build after it passed the
various statistical tests are required, and founded that SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12 model is a
good representation of the data and the SARIMA(1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 model is the right model
to forecast future monthly wind.
The objective of this research is to analyze the time series of labor productivity in the
Commercial Bank of Syria for a period of ninety days. The pattern of change in
productivity is identified in order to construct a model that helps predict the
values of
productivity.
So we used Box Jenkins models in this study by using statistical methods Such as the
ADF, PP KPSS and Q stat tests to detect that the series is Non stationary, but when the first
difference was taken, the series becomes stationary, and confirmed by the same previous
tests.
A series of time series models were then filtered based on Autocorrelation (ACF) and
Partial Autocorrelation(PACF).
After selecting between several candidate models, by applying some statistical
methods such as MSE and BIC, we selected the best time series model ARIMA (1,1,1).
The significance of its coefficients was determined using t
The general index of the financial market of the important
economic indicators in any country is being reflects the
economic situation and economic activity in the country, so
attention must be appropriate methods for predicting the
performance o
f this indicator in the future and look at the
factors that affect in it .
This study aimed to the conclusion based, follow Box-Jenkins
methodology for building predictive models ARMA (p, q) and
check models" residuals, and predict the performance of the
general index of Damascus Securities Exchange DWX, as
well as the volume of trading in this market, and studying the
impact of the relationship between them .
Due to the importance of water, and the increasing of demand at the present time due
to the tremendous development in all spheres of economic and social life, and as the
evaluation, planning and management of water sources, one of the important top
ics in
human life, especially in areas with scarce rainfall or where rainfall distribution is poor or
irregular so cannot be used for different purposes.
From here, the importance of the research in forecasting rainfall in the Husn
Suleiman station, comes, and to achieve this goal the data of time series for the average
annual rainfall precipitation been used in Husn Suleiman station which located in the
province of Tartous on longitude 36 ° 15 ' andlatitude 34 ° 56', for the period between
1959-2011,
The methodology of "Box – Jenkins" been used in the study, this methodology
relies on finding future forecasts from original data series.
Also,the applications “MINITAB, EXCEL” have been used in the statistical side and
the preparation of the study results.
As a result, the study found that rainfall value in the 'Husn Suleiman station'
decreasing, this decline amounted to 3.7 mm per year during the monitoring period.
Also, the appropriate (ARIMA) model for the series was build after it passed the
various statistical tests are required, and founded that ARIMA(1,0,0) model is a good
representation of the data and the ARIMA(4,1,5) model is the right model to forecast
future rainfall.
Rainfall is considered as one of the most difficult and complex elements of the
hydrological cycle, to understand and model, due to the complexity of air operations that
generate rain. The importance of research comes from the direct relationship b
etween the
rainfall amount and economic & social activities of the population, planning scopes of the
water resources management, particularly with respect to the agricultural development.
The research aims to highlight the rainfall amounts in Tartous station which is
located in the southern part of the Syrian coast, and applying one model of Box-Jenkins
models for the purpose of predicting future rainfall amounts. Multiple Arima models have
been tested. The results showed that the model SARIMA (3,0,4) was the best one. Data
were divided into 43 years to build the model and eight years to test it. The test results
gave high accuracy in the performance, and the model was used to predict the values of
annual rainfall for the next twenty years.
تولى الجمهورية العربية السورية الاهتمام و الرعاية اللازمة لمنظومة التعليم في الدولة، إذ يكفل القانون حق التعليم لكل مواطن، و هو إلزامي و مجاني في مرحلة التعليم الأساسي. هذا فضلاً عن أن معدل النمو السكاني المرتفع، و عوامل أخرى مختلفة تؤدي إلى ارتفاع أ
عداد التلاميذ المنتسبين إلى الصف الأول من التعليم الأساسي و بشكل متسارع جداً. لابد لمواجهة هذا الواقع من وضع خطط سنوية من قبل المعنيين لمواجهة الالتزامات المتوقعة لكل عام جديد: المدارس، الشعب، المعلمين، المقررات.....
هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى وضع نماذج قياسية للتنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ المتوقع توافدهم إلى الصف الأول و توفيق أفضل نموذج من نماذج ،Box-Jenkins تعليم أساسي باستخدام منهجية(بوكس جنكينز) ARIMA و ARMA. خلصت الدراسة إلى وضع نموذج يمكن استخدامه في التنبؤ بأعداد التلاميذ، و تم التنبؤ بأعدادهم حتى عام 2015، و هذا ما يشكل قاعدة علمية لوضع خطط التعليم و الخطط المرتبطة بها.
