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Register a new userDeterminants of Inflation in Syria During The Period (1990-2010)
أهم محددات التضخم في سورية خلال الفترة (1990-2010)
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Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2015
fields
Economy
and research's language is
العربية
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Shamra Editor
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يهدف هذا البحث إلى تحديد أثر أهم المتغيرات الاقتصادية (الداخلية منها و الخارجية) على معدل التضخم في سورية، و قد تم تحديد هذه المتغيرات المدروسة بناء على الآراء التي ينادي بها عدد من النظريات الاقتصادية المتعلقة بموضوع التضخم، حيث تشمل: فائض القوة الشرائية، ارتفاع مؤشر التكلفة داخل الاقتصاد، التضخم المستورد. و بينت المعادلة الممثلة لسلوك التضخم في الأجل الطويل، و التي تم التوصل إليها باستخدام طريقة المربعات الصغرى أن فائض القوة الشرائية هو المتغير الوحيد الذي ليس له أثر ذو دلالة إحصائية على معدل التضخم، بينما أظهرت المعادلة الممثلة لسلوك التضخم في الأجل القصير، والتي تم التوصل إليها باستخدام نموذج تصحيح الخطأ أن ارتفاع تكلفة الإنتاج هو العامل الأكثر تأثيراً على معدل التضخم.
This research investigates the main factors (domestic and foreign) affecting inflation rate in Syria. Choosing the factors is based on the analysis of the major economic hypothesis concerning inflation determinants such as: excess purchasing power, cost push inflation, foreign inflation. By using OLS method, we find long run function, and it shows that the excess purchasing power has no significant effect on inflation rate. The error correction model shows that high cost rate has the biggest effect on inflation rate in the short run.
Artificial intelligence review:
Research summary
يهدف هذا البحث إلى دراسة أهم العوامل المؤثرة على معدل التضخم في سوريا خلال الفترة من 1990 إلى 2010. تم تحليل العوامل الاقتصادية الداخلية والخارجية باستخدام نماذج اقتصادية مختلفة مثل نموذج المربعات الصغرى ونموذج تصحيح الخطأ. أظهرت النتائج أن فائض القوة الشرائية ليس له تأثير ذو دلالة إحصائية على معدل التضخم في الأجل الطويل، بينما ارتفاع تكلفة الإنتاج هو العامل الأكثر تأثيراً في الأجل القصير. كما تبين أن التضخم المستورد يلعب دوراً مهماً في تحديد معدل التضخم. توصي الدراسة بتحسين فعالية السياسات المالية والنقدية واتباع أساليب إنتاج حديثة لتقليل التكاليف.
Critical review
تقدم الدراسة تحليلاً شاملاً لمحددات التضخم في سوريا، إلا أنها تفتقر إلى تحليل أكثر تفصيلاً للعوامل السياسية والاجتماعية التي قد تؤثر على التضخم. كما أن الاعتماد على بيانات قديمة قد يقلل من دقة النتائج في السياق الحالي. من الأفضل أن تشمل الدراسة تحليلاً للعوامل المستجدة بعد عام 2010، خاصة في ظل التغيرات الاقتصادية والسياسية الكبيرة التي شهدتها سوريا.
Questions related to the research
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ما هي العوامل الرئيسية التي تؤثر على معدل التضخم في سوريا وفقاً للدراسة؟
العوامل الرئيسية هي ارتفاع تكلفة الإنتاج والتضخم المستورد، بينما فائض القوة الشرائية ليس له تأثير ذو دلالة إحصائية على معدل التضخم في الأجل الطويل.
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ما هو النموذج الاقتصادي الذي استخدمته الدراسة لتحليل البيانات؟
استخدمت الدراسة نموذج المربعات الصغرى ونموذج تصحيح الخطأ لتحليل البيانات.
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ما هي التوصيات التي قدمتها الدراسة للحد من التضخم في سوريا؟
توصي الدراسة بتحسين فعالية السياسات المالية والنقدية، واتباع أساليب إنتاج حديثة لتقليل التكاليف، وزيادة الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لتقليل الاعتماد على الواردات.
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هل أثبتت الدراسة أن فائض القوة الشرائية له تأثير على معدل التضخم في الأجل الطويل؟
لا، أظهرت الدراسة أن فائض القوة الشرائية ليس له تأثير ذو دلالة إحصائية على معدل التضخم في الأجل الطويل.
References used
Boschi, M; Giradi, A. Euro area inflation: long- run determinants and shortrun dynamics, Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Group, London, Vol 37, 2005
Coibion, O; Gorodnichenko, Y; Wieland, J. The optimal inflation rate in new Keynesian models, NBER working paper No.16093, USA, 2010, p. 5
Vizek, M; Broz, T. Modeling inflation in Croatia, Emerging markets finance and trade, Vol 45, No.6, M E sharpe inc, Newyork, 2009, P. 97
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