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Register a new userThe determinants of Syrian international trade with BRICS countries by gravity model
محددات التجارة الخارجية السورية مع دول بريكس وفق نموذج الجاذبية
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Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2018
fields
Economy
and research's language is
العربية
Created by
Shamra Editor
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يحتل قانون الجاذبية في التجارة أهمية كبيرة في تفسير محددات التجارة الخارجية للدول، سواء في العلاقات التجارية الثنائية أو الإقليمية أو الدولية، و إن متطلبات تطوير التجارة الخارجية السورية يقتضي إيجاد منافذ جديدة لها، لذلك تناولت هذه الدراسة تطبيق نموذج الجاذبية على التجارة الخارجية السورية مع دول مجموعة بريكس، لتحليل محددات هذه العلاقة، باستخدام بيانات مقطعية لخمس دول و خلال الفترة الممتدة من عام 1980 و لغاية عام 2015. و توصل البحث إلى أهمية كل من الحجم الاقتصادي المتمثل بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي للدول المدروسة في زيادة حجم التجارة الخارجية السورية إلى تلك الدول، و أن المسافة الاقتصادية و الجغرافية من أهم قيود نمو التجارة الخارجية السورية مع دول بريكس.
Gravity model in trade is the most important factor in analyzing international trade determinants in bilateral، regional or international trade relationship between countries. Developing of Syrian external trade requires finding new outlets .For that ،this research discusses the determinants of Syrian international trade with BRICS countries by gravity model، using panel data for five counties and period from 1980 to 2015. The research proofed several facts including: the big scale of countries economy increase trade with BRICS countries، but both of economic and geographic distance between Syria and BRICS countries decrease scale of Syrian international trade with these countries.
References used
BERGEIJK, P.; BRAKMAN ,S. The Gravity Model in International Trade: Advances and Application, Cambridge University Press, United States Of America, New York, 2010, 50
GAJURATI, D., Econometrics By Example, 2nd,Palgrave Nacmellan , Uk, 2012, 416
KAREEM ,F.; KAREEM ,O. Specification And Estimation Of Gravity Models: A Review Of The Issues In The Literature, European University Institute,Working Papers,Robert Schuman Center For Advanced Students, 2014, 25
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The objective of the present study is to determine the determinants
of Syrian foreign trade according to the gravity model from a
geographical point of view. The model estimates the effects of
external market sizes, geographical distances between
countries,
GDP, the impact of cultural differences or their similarity, Syria's
relative institutions in foreign trade, and on the basis of the results
chart the future plan and the appropriate proposals to increase the
potential places of Syrian exports.
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s its foreign trade liberalization, and open markets, and engaged in regional and international partnerships. The study used economical analysis method to study some indicators relating to customs duties and foreign trade in Syria. So the research reached to some important results, that the process of reducing customs duties that associated with foreign tread liberalization, has contributed significantly to the increase in the volume of commodity imports, which led to an aggravation defect in our trade balance, and deterioration the terms of trade exchange, in addition to the significant decline in the rate of customs proceeds to imports in the national economy.
And that needs primary reducing the dependence on imports in our economic activity, and trending towards activation the alternatives imports industry, especially those that constitute a burden on our trade balance.
Inaddition to try to find some other recommendations that serve the aim of research.
The aim of this study was to apply Box- Jenkins methodology represented by ARIMA models, to forecast some indicators of foreign trade in Syria, and to know if these models are effective in forecasting. The main results were: -The time series for the
indicator of trade exposure in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences.-The time series for the indicator of import- export covering in Syria for period 1992 - 2016 is unstable, and then stabilized after making the first differences. - ARIMA (1,1,1) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of trade exposure, and it is effective model. - ARIMA (2,1,0) model, which is the suitable model to forecast the indicator of import- export covering, and it is effective model.
The aim of this study to identify the impact of ownership’ structure criteria measured by
managerial ownership and ownership dispersion on corporate performance measured by
return on equity ROE, through sample contains of six Syrian private banks a
nd six Syrian
insurance companies for period between 2011 and 2016. The results showed that the
managerial ownership effects on performance, while ownership dispersion does not affect
on performance, as well as the relationship between these variables difference in term of
industry the company belongs to. To enhance the performance of Syrian corporation, some
recommendations have been presented by the end of study.
Within the last thirty years, the recent development in GPS, satellite tracking techniques and processing strategies has revolutionized development of Earth gravity field models. In addition, the increase of gravity data coverage led to an increase i
n the resolution and accuracy of these models. This in turn led to a noticeable improvement in determination of geoid surfaces which are essential in transformation of the geodetic height to the orthometric height. This study utilizes the normal gravity field for estimating offsets the Syrian leveling network from the EGM2008 geoid defined by its geopotential value W0=62636856.0 m2s-2. This approach uses the average of the gravity potential values at the GPS/levelling points in some areas in Syria. The gravity potential value in the study regionis estimated using the Earth gravity field model EGM2008. The residuals between the actual gravity potentials and the values at the Syrian height reference surface are estimated in the range between [-4.51 m2s-2 ~ 10.62m2s-2] and a mean value of -6.72±0.70 m2s-2 with 95% confidence level. This corresponds to [-46.0 cm ~ 108.4 cm] and a mean value of -63.7±7.1 cm which means that the Syrian height datum is located underneath the global geoid.
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