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Register a new userExport Policy Role in Reviving German Economy
دور سياسة التصدير في إنعاش الاقتصاد الألماني
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Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2021
fields
Financial
and research's language is
العربية
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Shamra Editor
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لقد استطاع الاقتصاد الألماني بعد الأزمة المالية العالمية وأزمة الديون السيادية اللاحقة التي عصفت بالاقتصادات الأوروبية في عام 2010 أن يتعافى بشكل أسرع من بقية الدول محققاً ما أُطلق عليه "المعجزة الألمانية الثانية". وفيما أرجع البعض تلك المعجزة إلى السياسة النقدية للبنك المركزي الأوروبي المتحيزة بشكل كبير إلى ألمانيا (كأقوى اقتصادات المنطقة)، أرجعها البعض الآخر إلى اعتماد الاقتصاد الألماني على قطاع التصدير وإلى استراتيجيته الناجحة في هذا الصدد قبل وأثناء أزمة 2010. وعليه، هدفت هذه الدراسة إلى تحديد مدى مساهمة سياسة التصدير المُطبقة في ألمانيا في تحقيق تلك المعجزة بغية استخلاص بعض الدروس المُستفادة؛ وفي سبيل ذلك تم تحليل أثر معدل نمو الصادرات على الاقتصاد الألماني منذ اندلاع أزمة الديون الأوروبية السيادية في عام 2010 وحتى نهاية عام 2019؛ وذلك من خلال تحليل التغيرات في كل من معدل نمو الصادرات والمؤشرات الرئيسة الكلية للاقتصاد الألماني (معدل النمو الاقتصادي المتمثل في معدل نمو الناتج المحلي الإجمالي، معدل التضخم، ومعدل البطالة) بيانياً واحصائياً؛ حيث تم الاعتماد على منهجية الانحدار الذاتي ذي الفجوات الزمنية الموزعة ARDL في سبيل اختبار وجود علاقة في الأجلين الطويل والقصير. وقد خلص البحث إلى وجود تأثير معنوي لمعدل نمو الصادرات على كل من معدلي النمو والبطالة في ألمانيا، بينما انعدم تأثيرها على معدلات التضخم. أي أن نموذج النمو الألماني المعتمد على التصدير قد ساهم نسبياً في تعافي الاقتصاد وتحسن مؤشراته اعتماداً على استراتيجيته التصديرية من جهة، وعلى متانة الاقتصاد ومرونته من جهة ثانية، وعلى استفادة ألمانيا من الأزمة الأوروبية من جهة ثالثة.
After the global financial crisis and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis that hit European economies in 2010, the German economy was able to recover faster than the others, achieving what has been called the "second German miracle". While some researchers had attributed this miracle to the monetary policy of the European Central Bank which is largely biased towards Germany (as the strongest economy in the region), others attributed it to the German economy’s reliance on the export sector and its successful strategy before and during the 2010 crisis. Accordingly, This study aimed to determine the extent of the contribution of the German export policy to achieve that miracle in order to extract some lessons. To this end, the impact of the export growth rate on the German economy has been analyzed since the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010 until the end of 2019; This is done by analyzing the changes in both the export growth rate and the main indicators of the German economy (growth, inflation, and unemployment rates) graphically and statistically depending on ARDL methodology in order to test the existence of a relationship in the long and short term.The research concluded that there was a significant effect of the export growth rate on growth and unemployment rates, while it didn’t have any effect on the inflation rates. That is, the German export-dependent growth model has relatively contributed to the recovery of the economy and the improvement of its indicators, depending on its export strategy on the one hand, the strength and resilience of the economy on the other hand, and on German’s benefit from the European crisis on the third hand.
References used
GERALDINE, D., et al. Germany'sBenefit from the Greek Crisis, Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH),2015, PP 1-10
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