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The Impact Of Public Expenditure And Taxes On Private Investment In Syria Using Standard Modeling By "ARDL" Method

أثر الإنفاق العام و الضرائب على الإستثمار الخاص في سورية باستخدام النمذجة القياسية بطريقة "ARDL"

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 Publication date 2020
  fields Economy
and research's language is العربية
 Created by Shamra Editor




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This Study Seeks To Test The Combined Effect Of Fiscal Policy Tools (Public Spending And Taxes) On Private Investment In Syria. Time Series Data For These Variables Were Collected For The Period (1990-2010), And It Was Subjected To A Statistical Financial And Economic Study That Began By Analyzing The Growth Rates, And Components Of These Variables.This Was Followed By A Study Of The Stability Of Time Series. Finally, The Long-Term Co-Integration Equation For Private Investment In Syria Was Estimated Using The Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). The Results Of The Study Showed The Existence Of A Long-Term Relationship Between Private Investment As A Dependent Variable. Finally, Recommendations Were Made To Increase The Effectiveness Of Public Spending And Taxes In Positively Affecting Private Investment.


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Research summary
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى اختبار التأثير المشترك لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والضرائب) على الاستثمار الخاص في سوريا. تم جمع بيانات السلاسل الزمنية لهذه المتغيرات للفترة من 1990 إلى 2010، وتم إخضاعها لدراسة اقتصادية مالية إحصائية بدأت بتحليل نسب ومعدلات نمو ومكونات هذه المتغيرات، تبعها دراسة استقرارية السلاسل الزمنية، وأخيراً تم تقدير معادلة التكامل المشترك طويلة الأجل للاستثمار الخاص في سوريا باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL). أظهرت نتائج الدراسة وجود علاقة طويلة الأجل بين الاستثمار الخاص كمتغير تابع، وهي علاقة مباشرة مع الإنفاق العام وعكسية مع الضرائب كمتغيرات مستقلة. وأخيراً تم تقديم توصيات لزيادة فعالية الإنفاق العام والضرائب في التأثير إيجاباً على الاستثمار الخاص.
Critical review
تعتبر الدراسة مساهمة مهمة في فهم تأثير السياسة المالية على الاستثمار الخاص في سوريا، إلا أن هناك بعض النقاط التي يمكن تحسينها. أولاً، الفترة الزمنية المدروسة (1990-2010) قد لا تعكس التغيرات الاقتصادية والسياسية الحديثة التي شهدتها البلاد، وبالتالي قد تكون النتائج غير محدثة. ثانياً، الدراسة تعتمد بشكل كبير على بيانات السلاسل الزمنية، والتي قد تكون غير دقيقة أو غير متوفرة بشكل كامل للفترة المدروسة. ثالثاً، التركيز على نموذج ARDL فقط قد يكون محدوداً، وكان من الممكن استخدام نماذج أخرى للمقارنة والتحقق من النتائج. أخيراً، التوصيات المقدمة قد تكون عامة ولا تأخذ في الاعتبار السياق الاقتصادي والسياسي الحالي في سوريا.
Questions related to the research
  1. ما هو الهدف الرئيسي من الدراسة؟

    تهدف الدراسة إلى اختبار التأثير المشترك لأدوات السياسة المالية (الإنفاق العام والضرائب) على الاستثمار الخاص في سوريا.

  2. ما هي الفترة الزمنية التي تم دراستها في البحث؟

    تم دراسة الفترة الزمنية من 1990 إلى 2010.

  3. ما هو النموذج الإحصائي المستخدم في الدراسة؟

    تم استخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للفجوات الزمنية الموزعة (ARDL).

  4. ما هي النتائج الرئيسية التي توصلت إليها الدراسة؟

    أظهرت النتائج وجود علاقة طويلة الأجل بين الاستثمار الخاص كمتغير تابع، وهي علاقة مباشرة مع الإنفاق العام وعكسية مع الضرائب كمتغيرات مستقلة.


References used
Pesaran, M.; Shin, Y. (1999). An Autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis . Chapter 11 in S. Storm (ed). Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ranger Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK
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