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Register a new userThe use of Markov chains in studying the changes in index numbers for consumer prices in Syria
استخدام سلاسل ماركوف في دراسة تغيرات الأرقام القياسية لأسعار المستهلك في سورية
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تم في هذا البحث التنبؤ بالأرقام القياسية لأسعار المستهلك ل: (الأغذية، الملابس و الأحذية ، الاتصالات، النقل، الصحة، التعليم، سكن و مياه و كهرباء)، و ذلك باستخدام مصفوفة ماركوف في التقدير، بالاعتماد على بيانات شهرية أُخذت من المكتب المركزي للإحصاء في سورية خلال الفترة (1\1\2010, 31\12\2011), حيث تم تحليل النتائج من خلال حساب شعاع احتمالات الوضعيات (الحالات) في اللحظة t0 = 2010 و استخدامه مع مصفوفة الاحتمالات الانتقالية للتنبؤ بشعاع احتمالات الوضعيات على المدى الطويل و القصير لمعرفة الاتجاه الذي ستسلكه الأرقام القياسية في المستقبل. و كانت أهم نتائج البحث: عدم ثبات شعاع الاحتمالات الانتقالية للوضعيات (ارتفاع – انخفاض-استقرار) أثناء فترة التنبؤ، كذلك الأمر بالنسبة لمصفوفة الاحتمالات الانتقالية.
We performed in this research forecast in the direction of the index numbers for consumer prices for ( food- clothes and shoes – education -health- transportation communications - housing water, electricity, gas and other fuel oils), by using Markov chains in estimating with dependence on monthly data were taken from the central bureau of statistics in Syria during the period (1/1/2010 , 31/12/2011) , So results were analyzed by calculating the vector of states probabilities in the moment 0 t and using it with matrix of transition probabilities states transition probability for forecasting in the vector of states probabilities on the long and short range for knowing the direction at which the index numbers may behave in the future. The most important results of the study were instability of the beam of the transition probabilities (high low stability) during the prediction period, as well as for the matrix of transition probabilities.
References used
Howard.R.H. (1971)" Dynamics probabilistic systems"vol1, John Wiley and sons New York, USA, 50
Bermant, M.A., Semeny, L.K. Sylicki, V.N., (1987)" mathematical models for educational playing" central of mathematical economy institute, 25
CAO, Lu ؛ZHOU, Xin. (2010): Impulse –Response function Analysis: An application to macroeconomic data of china . Hskolan Dalarna, June 2010, 1-25
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