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Register a new userFuzzy Inference Model to Estimate the Impact of Changes orders on Construction Duration in Syria
بناء نموذج استدلال ضبابي لتخمين تأثير أوامر التغيير على مدة مشاريع التشييد في سوريا
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الهدف من هذه الدراسة هي تطوير نموذج استدلال ضبابي لتقدير تأثير أوامر التغيير على مدة مشاريع التشييد في سوريا. بحيث يساعد على التوصل إلى التقدير الدقيق للزيادة بمدة المشروع نتيجة التغيير و ذلك بفضل إمكانية التدرج الكبيرة بالتقدير التي يتمتع بها المنطق الضبابي. و التي ساهمت بالتخفيف من الارتياب بتقييم العوامل و بالتالي بتخمين مدة المشروع بعد التغيير.
The aim of this study is to develop a fuzzy inference model to estimate the impact of change orders on the duration of construction projects in Syria. This can help in obtaining the optimal estimation of the increasing of the project duration caused by the changes. The capability of gradient estimation of the fuzzy logic approach reduces the distrust of estimation using factor assessment. Also it estimates the duration of the project after any change.via the experts evaluation or according to the crisp logic.
References used
Abu Neamah M "Causes And Effects Of Change Order On Construction Projects" King Fahd University Of Petroleum And Minerals College Of Environmental Design, 2011
Chao hui Wu, Ting ya Hsieh, and Wen lon Cheng, "Statistical Analysis of Causes for Design Change in Highway Construction on Taiwan," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 23, p. 554–563, 2005
FHWA (1999). Asset Management Primer [en ligne]. U.S. Department of Transportation-Federal HighwayAdministration Office of Asset Management, Disponiblesur : http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/infrastructure/asstmgmt/amprimer.pdf
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Many studies have tried to determine the impact of change orders on the cost and
time of the project, which in turn leads to differences and disputes between contractors and
owners. Where change orders dealt with in various engineering projects.
T
his search displays formal causes of change orders occurring during the life cycle of
the project in Syrian coastal zone. Particular building projects are studied, and the most
important impact on completion of the project indicators (cost_time) is discussed. Also
identifies the party responsible for the change, and shows the weak points during follow
the change order life cycle and provides recommendations for each of the responsible
parties, stressing the need to monitor performance in order to manage change order and
address the causes and impact alleviation. The prediction models were drafted at additional
cost that may result from change orders.
Changes in construction projects are considered as prevalent phenomenon. Where,
most of projects face changes in drawings, specifications, work scope, or contractual
conditions.
The traditional construction followed in Syrian projects has a long t
ime span between
planning, design, and construction. As result the possibility of changes occurrence in any
project becomes considerable. There are many causes of change orders in construction
industry. These changes, mostly causes time and cost overrun and managerial
complications.
The objective of this study is determining the main causes of change orders;
arranging them according to their significance; and studying their effects on project’s cost
and time. The owner or the engineer supervising the project is the party who is responsible
for change orders in the project.
Poor design is a major factor in reducing the overall performance of construction projects as well as being directly responsible for many projects cost overrun, delay and being plagued with rework,
variations and disputation.
This research discusse
s the main factors affecting Design Quality in the Construction Industry in Syria.
The result is based on a number of interviews and questionnaire surveys involving 54 designers, contractors and construction professionals. The survey identified 45 different factors classified in
categories related to designer, management of the design process, owner and design documents. The severity of those factors was measured by the level of importance and was ranked according to the
importance index.
It was concluded that, insufficient overall design time, method of selecting the designer based on the lowest price offer, lack of documentation and changes client’s requirements were the most important factors. The results show that designers and contractors have different perceptions of the quality of
design factors.
The aim of this study is to assist all construction parties to plan effectively before starting a project during the design phase in order to minimize problems and eliminate extra costs needed to complete
the defective design. Finally, some recommendations were made in order to improve the design quality in the construction industry.
Because of the increasing need to improve quality in construction projects, it is necessary to reduce and prevent reworks, and that is by understanding their roots and recognizing their causes. So this research studies reworking on local projects (Sy
rian buildings) in terms of causes and classifications. Information was collected from questionnaire that identified some variables (100 variables) contributing to reworking. These variables were categorized according to seven main headings: human, coordination and communication, technical and engineering, owner, project management, contract, and design. Responses were further condensed using factor analysis to group the variables into basic factors. This study revealed that the sources of reworks included inexperienced personnel, projects executions after a long time of studying, a short period given by owner, poor total project management, inadequate study for project before bidding, and separation between design and executing. Finally, this research recommended that a total commitment to quality management policy applications would lead to a reduction in reworks on Syrian construction projects.
An ANFIS controller also designed and a comparison
between proposed controller, ANFIS controller and open loop model
had made with different types of disturbance.
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