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Register a new userTemperature and rainfall changes in Lattakia, kasaab and Slenfeh during 1978-2011
تغيرات الحرارة و الأمطار في اللاذقية و كسب و صلنفة خلال الفترة 2011-1978
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نظراً لأهمية التغيرات المناخية و تأثيراتها الكبيرة و المتزايدة على الأنظمة البيئية و البشرية المختلفة، فإنه من الضروري دراسة و فهم هذه التغيرات. يهدف هذا البحث إلى معرفة اتجاه و مقدار التغير الحاصل في درجة الحرارة و كمية الأمطار خلال الفترة 2011-1978 في اللاذقية، كسب و صلنفة. تم ذلك من خلال التحليل السنوي و الفصلي و الشهري لكمية الأمطار و متوسط درجة الحرارة، و التي أظهرت ارتفاعا معنويا لمتوسط درجة الحرارة السنوية في المناطق الثلاث و ارتفاعا فصليا معنويا باستثاء شتاء اللاذقية و صلنفة و خريف اللاذقية. أما الأمطار السنوية فكانت تغيراتها غير معنوية، بينما تزايدت الأمطار الفصلية معنوياً في شتاء صلنفة و تناقصت معنوياً في شتاء كسب. و بعد تقسيم مدة الدراسة لفترتين متساويتين 1995-1978،2011-1995 و مقارنة الفترة الثانية بالأولى تبين مايلي: وجود زيادة معنوية للحرارة السنوية في كافة المناطق، عدم معنوية تغيرات الأمطار السنوية و الفصلية، بلغت أعلى زيادة معنوية في درجات الحرارة الشهرية في اللاذقية، كسب، و صلنفة +1.8، +2.9، +1.5 خلال أشهر أيلول، آب، و أيار على التوالي. أما الجفاف السنوي فقد أظهر اتجاهاً متزايداً في كل من اللاذقية و كسب و متناقصاً في صلنفة.
Due to the importance of climate changes and their strong and increasing influences on different human and ecological systems, It is necessary to study and understand these changes. This research aims to determine the direction and magnitude of the change in temperatures and rainfall trend during 1978-2011 in Latakia, Kasaab and Slenfeh. The study has been done through the analysis of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall amount and temperature average, which showed a significant increasing in the average annual temperature in the three regions and significant seasonally increasing except for Winter in Latakia and Slenfeh, Autumn in Latakia. But the annual rainfall changes were nonsignificant, while seasonally rainfall increased significantly in Slenfeh Winter and decreased in Kasaab Winter. After dividing the entire study duration into two equal periods 1978-1995, 1995-2011 and comparing the second period with the first one, we found a significant increasing in the average annual temperature in the three regions, non- significant in the annual and seasonal rainfall changes. The highest significant in seasonal temperature in Latakia, Kasaab and Slenfeh reached +1.5, +2.9, +1.8 during September, August، and May respectively. While the annual drought showed increased trend in Latakia and kasaab and decreased one in Slenfeh.
References used
AGNEW, C. T. Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Network News, Vol. 1, 2000, 6-11
ALPERT, P.; KRICHAK, S.O.; SHAFIR, H.; HAIM, D.; OSETINSKY, I. Climatic trends to extremes employing regional modeling and statistical interpretation over the E. Mediterranean. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 63, N. 2-3, 2008, 163-170
HANNACHI, A. Pattern Hunting in Climate: A New Method for Finding Trends in Gridded Climate Data. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 27, N.1, 2007, 1- 15
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