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Register a new userApplied Study on Private Syrian Commercial Banks: The Effect Of Using The Altman Model To Predict Financial Failure On Loan Portfolio Returns.
أثر استخدام نموذج Altman للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي على عوائد محافظ القروض (دراسة تطبيقية على المصارف التجارية السورية الخاصة)
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Tishreen University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2022
fields
Financial
and research's language is
العربية
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Shamra Editor
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تهدف الدراسة إلى تطبيق النسب المالية لنموذج Altman للتنبؤ بالفشل المالي على المصارف التجارية السورية الخاصة المدرجة في سوق دمشق للأوراق المالية، إضافةً إلى التعرف على أثر استخدام نموذج Altman على عوائد محافظ قروض كل مصرف على حدا، ولتحقيق ذلك تم جمع البيانات اللازمة من التقارير السنوية المنشورة للمصارف من الموقع الرسمي لسوق دمشق للأوراق المالية عددها 11 مصرف، حيث شملت الدراسة الأعوام من 2011-2019، كما تمثل المتغير المستقل بنموذج Altman وتم قياسه باستخدام النسب المالية(الربحية- السيولة- الاستقلال المالي– الكفاءة التشغيلية )المكونة له والمتغير التابع بعوائد محافظ القروض وتم قياسه من خلال: معدل عائد محفظة القروض= إجمالي الفوائد والعمولات من القروض/ إجمالي القروض، وقد أظهرت نتائج الدراسة عدم وجود أثر معنوي ذو دلالة إحصائية لنموذج Altman في معدل العائد على محفظة القروض للمصارف التجارية الخاصة الآتية:(مصرف عوده-سورية، مصرف الشرق، مصرف العربي-سورية، مصرف فرنسبنك-سورية، مصرف سورية والمهجر، مصرف بيبلوس-سورية، المصرف الدولي للتجارة والتمويل، مصرف سوريه والخليج). ووجود أثر معنوي إيجابي ذو دلالة إحصائية لنموذج Altman في معدل العائد على محفظة القروض للمصارف التجارية الخاصة الآتية:(مصرف قطر الوطني- سورية، مصرف الأردن-سورية، مصرف بيمو السعودي الفرنسي).
The study aims to apply the financial ratios of the Altman model to predict financial failure on the private Syrian commercial banks listed on the Damascus Stock Exchange, in addition to identifying the impact of using the Altman model on the returns of each bank’s loan portfolios separately, and to achieve this, the necessary data were collected from the published annual reports. There are 11 banks from the official website of the Damascus Securities Exchange, where the study included the years from 2011-2019, and the independent variable was represented by the Altman model and was measured using financial ratios (profitability - liquidity - financial independence - operational efficiency) and the variable dependent on the returns of loan portfolios It was measured through: Loan portfolio rate of return = total interest and commissions from loans/total loans. The results of the study showed that there was no significant, statistically significant effect of Altman’s model on the rate of return on the loan portfolio of the following private commercial banks: (Bank Audi - Syria, Bank Al-Sharq, Arab Bank-Syria, Fransabank-Syria, Bank of Syria and Overseas, Byblos Bank-Syria, International Bank for Trade and Finance, Bank of Syria and Gulf). And there is a positive, significant, and statistically significant effect of the Altman model on the rate of return on the loan portfolio of the following private commercial banks: (Qatar National Bank - Syria, Bank of Jordan - Syria, Bemo Saudi Fransi Bank).
References used
Al-Ali, Ahmed,(2011).Financial Management, University Textbook, Faculty of Economic, Damascus University, Syria, p 86-88.
Annual reports of all private Syrian commercial banks for the period from (2011-2019)
Acharya, V., Hasan, I., (2001)"The Effect of Focus and Diversification on Bank Risk and Return: Evidence from Individual Bank Loan Portfolio", Published By Elsevier Ltd.
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Loan portfolios occupies an important position within the balance sheet of
commercial banks, considering that the efforts and decisions of management aim primarily
at building a good loan portfolios, that achieve high returns for banks at the lowes
t levels
of risks.
The research aims to assess the extent of compliance to the theoretical, scientific and
practical principles in the composition of loan portfolios of the public and private
commercial banks in the Syrian Coast: the principle of diversification; principle
of relevance ;the criteria for granting credit; and Advanced Capital Adequacy Framework–
Basel II. The research aims to draw important conclusions and recommendations to help
Syrian commercial banks(public and private) in reducing credit risk.
The research aims at identifying the factors affecting the returns of loan portfolios of private commercial banks in Syria during the period (2007- 2012), where it was studying the behavior of the dependent variable represented in (Yield Loan Portfol
ios) and the independent variables of (employment rate of deposits in loans, the size of the bank liquidity the age of the bank, the number of branches, and the capital adequacy ratio) is studied.
Research findings
There is a significant positive effect for independent variables, such as age of the bank, capital adequacy ratio (except Byblos Bank Syria) affecting loan portfolios returns on private commercial banks under study.
There is not a statistically significant effect for independent variables like employment rates of deposits in loans, the size of the bank, and liquidity (except Byblos Bank Syria), and the number of the bank branches (except Bank of Syria and overseas) returns on the loan portfolios private commercial banks under study
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