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Register a new userfinding the model of rainfall carnal slope in Kastal Mouaf-Coastal basin
إيجاد نموذج الانحدار الزمني للهطول المطري في منطقة قسطل معاف - حوض الساحل
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يهدف البحث إلى إيجاد نموذج الانحدار الزمني للهطول المطري في منطقة قسطل - معاف - حوض الساحل ، حيث تم التحليل الإحصائي خلال فترة 48 سنة (من 1961 - 1962 و لغاية 2008 - 2009 ) باستخدام البرنامج الإحصائي SPSS V22 لتمثيل العلاقة بين الظاهرة المدروسة (الهطول المطري) و العوامل التي يعكس أثرها الزمن.
This research aims at finding the model of rainfall carnal slope in Kastal Mouaf-Coastal basin . Statistical analysis has been performed during 48 year ( 1961-2009) using spss v.22 to represent the relationship between the rainfall and the factors whose impacts are shown by the passage time .
References used
CHOW V.T., 1964- Handbook of Applied hydrology. McGraw-hill book company, New York
PARSONS A.J.; STONE P. M., 2006- Effects of intra-storm variations in rainfall intensity on interrill runoff and erosion. Catena . 67. 68 – 78
عباس, جميل, 1993 – المناخ و الأرصاد الزراعية منشورات كلية الزراعة جامعة حلب 558 صفحة.
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River flows depend on precipitation in their catchments, where the flow is highly
correlated with precipitation, among many climatic and geographic factors. The
relationship between precipitation and runoff is of great importance in estimating flow
changes in The HWAIZ basin that is located between The-Zrod and The-Gelani basins.
The Al-HWAIZ Dam was built on the HWAIZ River with storage capacity of 16.5 MCM.
The purpose of this study is to find a relationship between rainfall and runoff in The
HWAIZ basin. This study depended on statistical analysis of rainfall and runoff data, and
the analytical study of the annual rainfall data (1959-2011), to guess the trend of rainfall
and its future changes and forecasting changes in the HWAIZ river flows. The study
showed that the runoff coefficient values ranged between (0.007-0.66). A mathematical
relationship was established that allows to estimate flow based on measured or predicted
precipitation values, as well as appraise missing or lacking data with accepted level of
accuracy.
The Alsafarqieh watershed is located on the western slopes of the coastal mountain range,
Its area is 132.58 km2, It forms a part of the Alros river basin, The river starts at a height of
1200 m, A group of tributaries meet and form the Alros River
, which flows into the
Mediterranean Sea. Salaheddin Dam was constructed to store 10 MCM on the riverbed at
the intersection of the Qurdaha River with the Shehada River. The study aims to determine
the rainfall- runoff relationship in The Alsafarqieh watershed. The solution depends on the
statistical analysis of precipitation and runoff data. Then the study found the mean annual
precipitation is 159.6 MCM/year, and the mean annual flow into the Salaheddin lake was
9.4 MCM during the study period (2010-2012), so the runoff coefficient is 0.06. This
indicates a significant water loss. A mathematical equation to predict the runoff quantities
depending on the values of precipitation, has been concluded. This is important to study
water projects for water storage and flood prevention.
Due to the importance of water, and the increasing of demand at the present time due
to the tremendous development in all spheres of economic and social life, and as the
evaluation, planning and management of water sources, one of the important top
ics in
human life, especially in areas with scarce rainfall or where rainfall distribution is poor or
irregular so cannot be used for different purposes.
From here, the importance of the research in forecasting rainfall in the Husn
Suleiman station, comes, and to achieve this goal the data of time series for the average
annual rainfall precipitation been used in Husn Suleiman station which located in the
province of Tartous on longitude 36 ° 15 ' andlatitude 34 ° 56', for the period between
1959-2011,
The methodology of "Box – Jenkins" been used in the study, this methodology
relies on finding future forecasts from original data series.
Also,the applications “MINITAB, EXCEL” have been used in the statistical side and
the preparation of the study results.
As a result, the study found that rainfall value in the 'Husn Suleiman station'
decreasing, this decline amounted to 3.7 mm per year during the monitoring period.
Also, the appropriate (ARIMA) model for the series was build after it passed the
various statistical tests are required, and founded that ARIMA(1,0,0) model is a good
representation of the data and the ARIMA(4,1,5) model is the right model to forecast
future rainfall.
Rainfall is considered as one of the most difficult and complex elements of the
hydrological cycle, to understand and model, due to the complexity of air operations that
generate rain. The importance of research comes from the direct relationship b
etween the
rainfall amount and economic & social activities of the population, planning scopes of the
water resources management, particularly with respect to the agricultural development.
The research aims to highlight the rainfall amounts in Tartous station which is
located in the southern part of the Syrian coast, and applying one model of Box-Jenkins
models for the purpose of predicting future rainfall amounts. Multiple Arima models have
been tested. The results showed that the model SARIMA (3,0,4) was the best one. Data
were divided into 43 years to build the model and eight years to test it. The test results
gave high accuracy in the performance, and the model was used to predict the values of
annual rainfall for the next twenty years.
The studied area forms a part of the coastal basin on the east coast of the
Mediterranean Sea located north of Tartous city.The area is bordered by the Mediterranean
Sea from the west. And (jobar,banias, albasia) rivers from north, al Housen river
from the
south. The area covers about (358) km2.
The research aims to find arelationship between rainfall and flow within Mrqiyeh
River Basin, by conducting analytical statistical study using Minitab software, which helps
in completing the measurements are not available, and to predict the river flows depending
on the expected precipitation in the river basin. The study found that the relationship is:Q =
216 + 0.0379 P - 36.8ln (P) + 3.46ln(Q) ,and rainfall reflect 87.2% of the changes that
occur to the flow of the river. The study recommended that need to intensify the river
discharges measurements in order to increase the reliability of their data.
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