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Register a new userAssessment and Analysis of The Risks in Construction Projects Using Statistical Techniques
تقدير و تحليل المخاطر في مشاريع التشييد باستخدام التقنيات الإحصائية
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Added by
Aِl-Baath University ورقة بحثية
Publication date
2016
fields
Civil Engineering
and research's language is
العربية
Authors
سوزان تفاحة( باحث )
Created by
Shamra Editor
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من خلال هذه الدراسة تم تصميم استبيان كخطوة أولى لأي منهجية لإدارة المخاطر, و إرساله لأصحاب الخبرات العالية من العاملين في مجال التشييد, لأخذ فكرة تساعد في تقييم واقع مشاريعنا و استقصاء أهم المشاكل بهدف تشكيل قوائم (Checklists) تضم أهم المخاطر التي تتعرض لها مشاريعنا المحلية لتكون دليلا يساعد في التعرف عليها و التنبه المبكر لها لوضع السياسات اللازمة للتعامل معها.
this study a questionnaire was implemented as a primary procedure for any methodology of risk management, and send out to the experts who work in the field of construction, in order to evaluate the reality of our projects as well as determine the serious problems, and all of this aim to form checklists including the major risks which the our projects are facing to be as a guide for early risks alert, to adopt the proper responses to deal with them.
References used
Hayes R. W., Perry J. G., Thompson P. A. and Willmer G. (1986), "Risk management in engineering construction". London: Thomas Telford Ltd. U.K
Raftery (1994)."Risk analysis in project management." Spon press, London,U.K
Chapman and Ward (1997)."Project risk management processes." Technique and insights. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, U.K
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Construction projects are characterized as very complex projects. This is because of their uniqueness, dynamic political and economic circumstances, weather, long life of projects, fluctuations in resources prices, and changes of engineering require
ment, etc. Therefore, construction projects are subject to a wide range of various risks, which in case these risks occur will have considerable impacts on projects objectives in terms of time, cost and quality. Therefore, there is a need to investigate these risks and their impacts on project objectives and parties.
The Client is one of the most important party in any project, and it usually lacks to have a clear strategy and policy to deal and manage risks that affect its objectives. This study aims to produce a strategy to deal and manage risks during construction stage from the client's point of view. The construction stage is selected because it takes a long time of the project life and consumes the largest amount of project budget, and it highly affects the project success or failure.
Data were collected, by utilizing both questionnaire and interview survey, from more than one hundred participants from construction companies, clients and other construction professionals. An SPSS17 and EXCEL software were used to treat the data to find correlation between different variables, means and standard deviations. Risks were ranked based on risk importance indicator. The results showed that the most important risk is 'delay of payment to contractors as agreed in the contract' and the lowest risk is 'changes of design during construction'.
The study concluded that the client should be concerned to formulate a specialized team in risk management in order to assist him in decision making process and developing practical solutions for dealing with risks in the construction sector.
Keywords: risk , risk management , Client , Construction projects .
Because of the increasing need to improve quality in construction projects, it is necessary to reduce and prevent reworks, and that is by understanding their roots and recognizing their causes. So this research studies reworking on local projects (Sy
rian buildings) in terms of causes and classifications. Information was collected from questionnaire that identified some variables (100 variables) contributing to reworking. These variables were categorized according to seven main headings: human, coordination and communication, technical and engineering, owner, project management, contract, and design. Responses were further condensed using factor analysis to group the variables into basic factors. This study revealed that the sources of reworks included inexperienced personnel, projects executions after a long time of studying, a short period given by owner, poor total project management, inadequate study for project before bidding, and separation between design and executing. Finally, this research recommended that a total commitment to quality management policy applications would lead to a reduction in reworks on Syrian construction projects.
تعتبر إدارة المخاطر في مشاريع التشييد هامة لإتمام أي مشروع بنجاح، و قد وصفت
المراجع النظرية لإدارة المشاريع بشكل مفصل و دقيق عملية إدارة المخاطر الناجحة
للمشاريع الهندسية، و حددت أربع مراحل أساسية لتقدير المخاطر و التعامل معها و هي
تحديد المخاطر،
تقييم المخاطر، التخطيط للاستجابة، التنفيذ. و مع ذلك فإن صناعة
التشييد في سوريا تشهد غياباً شبه كامل لإدارة المخاطر، و من هنا أتت فكرة هذا البحث
لمعرفة مدى وعي المعنيين في صناعة البناء و التشييد في سوريا حول الأنواع المختلفة
للمخاطر المتعلقة بصناعة التشييد، و نفذ استبيان لآراء مجموعة من الخبراء في مجال
المشاريع الهندسية (مدراء مشاريع، مهندسي تنفيذ، مصممين)، بالإضافة إلى مقاولين
و مقاولين ثانويين ممن يقومون بأعمال التنفيذ في موقع المشروع و يتأثرون بخطة المشروع
و يؤثرون بها بشكل مباشر.
Changes in construction projects are considered as prevalent phenomenon. Where,
most of projects face changes in drawings, specifications, work scope, or contractual
conditions.
The traditional construction followed in Syrian projects has a long t
ime span between
planning, design, and construction. As result the possibility of changes occurrence in any
project becomes considerable. There are many causes of change orders in construction
industry. These changes, mostly causes time and cost overrun and managerial
complications.
The objective of this study is determining the main causes of change orders;
arranging them according to their significance; and studying their effects on project’s cost
and time. The owner or the engineer supervising the project is the party who is responsible
for change orders in the project.
Construction projects are subject to risks and uncertainties which affect project targets (cost,
time, quality and safety).
This paper reviews risks and their effects on construction projects in Syria, and it aims to
develop risk management framew
ork.
In this work, risks in construction projects have been defined based on the literature review
and interviews of some experts in the construction field.
A questionnaire was designed to define the probability of risk occurrence and their effects, also
to define the level of their effects by multiplying the probability occurrence with the effects.
Another questionnaire was designed to define the extent of the effects of the most important
risks on each target of the project, and to specify the procedures applied as a response to the
risks.
The results of this research revealed that "the Inflation, price changes" and "the difference
between contracted quantities and actual quantities " are seen as the most important risk,
where the studied risks in this work affect the schedule more than any other project targets.
Also the results showed that avoiding the risks at the construction stage is the most used action.
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