We performed in this research forecast in the direction of the index
numbers for consumer prices for ( food- clothes and shoes –
education -health- transportation communications - housing water,
electricity, gas and other fuel oils), by using Mark
ov chains in
estimating with dependence on monthly data were taken from the
central bureau of statistics in Syria during the period (1/1/2010 ,
31/12/2011) , So results were analyzed by calculating the vector of
states probabilities in the moment 0 t and using it with matrix of
transition probabilities states transition probability for forecasting in the
vector of states probabilities on the long and short range for knowing
the direction at which the index numbers may behave in the future.
The most important results of the study were instability of the beam of
the transition probabilities (high low stability) during the prediction
period, as well as for the matrix of transition probabilities.
